Xiangyu(600057) 浙商证券·2024-11-01 10:23Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Xiamen Xiangyu with a "Buy" rating [4] Core Views - Xiamen Xiangyu is a leading player in the bulk supply chain, with steady performance growth and a strategic entry into value-added manufacturing segments such as shipbuilding [1] - The company has transformed into a full-industry-chain service provider, leveraging its strengths in logistics and agricultural platforms [1] - From 2018 to 2022, the company achieved a CAGR of 23% in revenue and 27% in net profit attributable to shareholders [1] - The shipbuilding sector, particularly through subsidiary Xiangyu Shipbuilding, is poised for significant growth with orders extending to 2029 [2] Business Segments Bulk Supply Chain - The company operates in key bulk commodities including metals, minerals, agricultural products, energy, chemicals, and new energy, covering seven core categories [2] - It has built a comprehensive logistics network integrating road, rail, water, and warehousing, extending to domestic and international markets [2] - The bulk supply chain market is experiencing increased concentration, with the top five players (CR5) increasing their market share from 4.81% in 2021 to 5.46% in H1 2023 [32] Shipbuilding - Xiangyu Shipbuilding, a subsidiary, holds a leading position in the global dry bulk shipbuilding market, ranking second in Supramax bulk carriers and sixth in dry bulk carriers [72] - The shipbuilding sector is benefiting from a global fleet aging trend, environmental regulations, and a supply-demand imbalance, leading to a sustained shipbuilding cycle [76] - The company's shipbuilding orders are fully booked until 2029, with significant price increases for Supramax bulk carriers since 2021 [2][72] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 459 billion, a 14.7% YoY decline, while net profit attributable to shareholders dropped 40.3% to RMB 1.57 billion [3] - The company forecasts revenue of RMB 447.5 billion, RMB 512.8 billion, and RMB 605.6 billion for 2024-2026, with net profits of RMB 1.02 billion, RMB 2.2 billion, and RMB 2.52 billion, respectively [3] - EPS is projected to be RMB 0.45, RMB 0.97, and RMB 1.11 for the same period [3] Market Position and Strategy - Xiamen Xiangyu has a strong market position in stainless steel supply chains, achieving a 19.2% market share in 2023 [42] - The company focuses on core commodities, leveraging its scale advantages and optimizing its product portfolio through industry cycles [39] - It has a stable customer base, with major clients including industry leaders in metals, energy, chemicals, and agriculture [46][52][54][57] Logistics and Network - The company has developed a multi-modal logistics network, including road, rail, water, and warehousing, with significant domestic and international coverage [60] - It operates 11 railway freight stations, 47 railway lines, and over 1,000 self-owned transport vehicles, with a total annual transport capacity exceeding 45 million tons [60] - The logistics network supports key routes such as "North Grain to South," "West Coal to East," and "North Coal to South" [60]