Guangzhou KDT machinery (002833) 华鑫证券·2024-11-01 10:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has experienced revenue growth, but profit margins are under pressure due to market conditions [1] - The domestic furniture industry is currently facing demand challenges, but government policies are expected to support equipment upgrades and stimulate demand recovery [1] - The company is positioned to benefit from these trends as a major supplier of production equipment for furniture manufacturers [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.166 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.83%, with a net profit of 455 million yuan, down 9.93% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, revenue was 674 million yuan, a decrease of 5.83% year-on-year, and net profit was 154 million yuan, down 9.93% year-on-year [1] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities for Q1-Q3 2024 was 445 million yuan, indicating good cash flow management [2] Growth Strategy - The company is implementing a dual-driven strategy focusing on high-end product development and horizontal expansion through industry acquisitions [1] - New subsidiaries, Kai'ao Intelligent and Xing Shi Intelligent, have been established to enhance market competitiveness and explore automation in furniture machinery [1] Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 3.088 billion, 3.585 billion, and 4.185 billion yuan respectively, with EPS projected at 1.58, 1.85, and 2.17 yuan [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 10.6, 9.1, and 7.8 for the respective years [3] Key Financial Metrics - The company’s revenue growth rate is projected at 15.1% for 2024, 16.1% for 2025, and 16.7% for 2026 [5] - The net profit growth rate is expected to be 13.9% in 2024, 16.5% in 2025, and 17.8% in 2026 [5] - The company maintains a reasonable expense ratio despite an increase in management and R&D costs [2]