永兴材料：2024年三季报点评：碳酸锂持续降本，Q3业绩符合预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with total revenue of 6.2 billion yuan, down 36% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 970 million yuan, down 68% year-on-year [2] - The sales volume of lithium carbonate remained stable quarter-on-quarter, with costs further decreasing, leading to a profit contribution of 60-70 million yuan in Q3 [3] - The special steel business maintained strong profitability, contributing 350-400 million yuan in profit during the first three quarters of 2024, with Q3 alone contributing over 100 million yuan [3] - Operating cash flow faced pressure, with a significant decline in net cash flow from operating activities, totaling 390 million yuan, down 89% year-on-year [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 1.14 billion yuan, 750 million yuan, and 1.2 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 67% and 34% before a recovery in 2026 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 9.62 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.06% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to be 1.14 billion yuan, down 66.61% year-on-year [1][4] - Q3 2024 revenue was 1.7 billion yuan, down 43% quarter-on-quarter and 21% year-on-year, with a net profit of 200 million yuan, down 82% quarter-on-quarter and 33% year-on-year [2][4] Sales and Production - The company plans to start a technical transformation project for lithium carbonate smelting with an annual capacity of 10,000 tons, expected to impact production from Q4 2024 to H1 2025 [3] - The total sales volume for 2024 is expected to be over 25,000 tons, slightly down year-on-year [3] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was 390 million yuan, down 89% year-on-year, with Q3 showing a negative cash flow of 140 million yuan [4] - Capital expenditure for the first three quarters of 2024 was 270 million yuan, down 30% year-on-year [4]