MACMIC(688711) 民生证券·2024-11-01 11:51Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Hongwei Technology (688711 SH) despite short-term profit pressure and downward revisions in earnings forecasts [2][4] Core Views - Hongwei Technology's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 was impacted by slowing demand, with total revenue of 980 million yuan, down 13 72% YoY, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 4 0409 million yuan, down 95 28% YoY [2] - The company's Q3 revenue was 343 million yuan, down 7 53% YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 1 5268 million yuan, down 93 37% YoY [2] - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 15 37%, showing a year-on-year decline but stabilizing quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company is accelerating technological iteration, improving product value, and optimizing pricing strategies to stabilize product pricing and drive gross margin improvement [2] - The company's revenue structure remains stable, with industrial control accounting for 40%, new energy power generation for 30%, and new energy vehicles for 30% [2] - The company has made breakthroughs in chip technology, including the development and certification of 1000V M7U chips for photovoltaics, the successful development of 1200V SiC MOSFET chips, and the reliability verification of self-developed SiC SBD chips [2] - The company is accelerating the development of high-voltage series products for wind, solar, and energy storage, and expanding its product portfolio in industrial control and data center applications [2] - The company's subsidiary, Xindongneng, has advantages in technology concentration, power density, cost, and reliability, complementing Hongwei Technology's potting products and expected to contribute to future performance [2] Financial Forecasts - The company's revenue is expected to be 1 388 billion yuan in 2024, 1 708 billion yuan in 2025, and 2 032 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of -7 7%, 23 0%, and 19 0% respectively [3][5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 9 million yuan in 2024, 99 million yuan in 2025, and 159 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of -91 9%, 947 6%, and 61 5% respectively [3][5] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 400 in 2024, 38 in 2025, and 24 in 2026 [3][5] - The company's gross margin is expected to be 15 10% in 2024, 18 50% in 2025, and 20 50% in 2026 [5] - The company's net profit margin is expected to be 0 68% in 2024, 5 77% in 2025, and 7 84% in 2026 [5] Business Segments - The company's industrial control business remains stable, accounting for 40% of revenue, while new energy power generation and new energy vehicles each account for 30% [2] - The company has major customers in the new energy vehicle sector, including BYD, Inovance, Zhunru Technology, Seres, and GAC [2] - The company is expanding its presence in high-value application scenarios such as data centers and server power management, with batch orders already secured [2]