微软：业绩略超预期，云业务收入指引放缓

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Microsoft (MSFT.US) and adjusts the target price to $500, reflecting a potential upside of 16% from the current price of $432.5 [4][6][19]. Core Insights - Microsoft reported FY25Q1 revenue of $65.6 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase, slightly exceeding market expectations by 2%. The earnings per share (EPS) was $3.3, up 10% year-over-year, also better than market forecasts [2][3]. - The guidance for cloud business revenue growth has slowed, with FY25Q1 intelligent cloud revenue at $24.1 billion, a 20% year-over-year increase. Azure and other services grew by 33%, but the growth rate is expected to decline further due to increased investments in AI [3][4]. - Capital expenditures for FY25Q1 were approximately $20 billion, a 78.6% increase year-over-year, indicating a continued commitment to AI infrastructure despite short-term pressure on profit margins [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY25E revenue is slightly adjusted to $276.2 billion, with projected revenues for FY26E and FY27E at $313.7 billion and $357.6 billion, respectively. Operating profit is expected to grow from $122.8 billion in FY25E to $160.6 billion in FY27E [5][9]. - Net profit is forecasted to increase from $98.2 billion in FY25E to $130.1 billion in FY27E, with a target P/E ratio of 38x for FY25E and 32x for FY26E [5][9]. Business Segments - The productivity and business processes (PBP) segment reported revenue of $28.3 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, with expectations for 10%-11% growth in the next quarter [3][4]. - Personal computing revenue reached $13.2 billion, a 17% increase year-over-year, driven by a 61% growth in gaming, primarily due to the integration of Blizzard [3][4]. Market Position and Outlook - Microsoft continues to hold a leading position in both cloud services and office software, with long-term benefits anticipated from AI integration. The report expresses optimism about Microsoft's future performance despite the current slowdown in cloud revenue growth [4][5][6].