生猪养殖产业链2024年三季报总结：养殖利润丰厚，后周期正在反转

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Increase" rating for the agriculture sector, specifically for the pig farming industry [1]. Core Insights - The pig farming industry has seen substantial profits in Q3 2024, with a reversal in the post-cycle phase. The average profit per head is at a cyclical high, with decreasing debt ratios and costs. The profitability of feed and animal health sectors is improving, along with better turnover rates [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming: Revenue and Profit Growth, Cost Improvement - In Q3 2024, 13 listed pig farming companies reported total revenues of 123.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.64%, with all companies achieving positive revenue growth quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders totaled 18.405 billion, marking a return to profitability [8][11]. - The average profit per head in the pig farming sector is estimated to be between 600 and 700 yuan, indicating a high cyclical profit level [11]. - Costs in pig farming are continuously improving, with Q3 feed costs stabilizing and a 2% increase in the number of breeding sows compared to the previous quarter [13][14]. - The debt ratio has decreased to 62.63%, with cash flow from operating activities reaching 27.822 billion, an increase of 7.2 billion from Q2 [19][20]. 2. Animal Health: Q3 Profitability Improvement, Anticipation of Major Product Breakthroughs - The animal health sector's revenue in Q3 2024 was 4.68 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.80%, with net profit down 49.83%, although the decline is less severe than in the first half of the year. The gross margin improved to 33% and net margin exceeded 6% [27][30]. - The sector is expected to benefit from the recovery in pig farming profitability, although it still faces historical low profit levels [39]. 3. Feed: Revenue Decline, Profitability Disparity - The feed sector experienced a revenue decline due to falling agricultural product prices, impacting sales volumes of pig and specialty aquatic feeds. The overall revenue for feed companies decreased [35][36]. - The profitability of pig feed varies significantly between regions, with southern companies facing increased competition leading to higher sales expense ratios [38]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the comparative advantages of the pig farming sector, with expected growth in both volume and price in Q4 2024. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and New Hope Liuhe [39][40]. - The animal health sector is also expected to see growth, with recommended stocks including Hewei Group and Kexin Biotechnology, while benefiting stocks include Zhongmu Biotechnology and Plk [39].