华阳股份：2024年三季报点评：Q3环比销量提升、成本下降，单季度业绩改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huayang Co., Ltd. [2] Core Views - The third quarter performance shows a sequential improvement in sales and a decrease in costs, leading to better quarterly results despite a year-on-year decline in profits [3][4] - The company's coal production and sales volumes have decreased year-on-year, but there was a sequential increase in sales in Q3 2024 [3] - The overall market conditions, including slight increases in coal prices, suggest potential for improved performance in Q4 [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 18.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.82 billion yuan, down 57.4% [3] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.4 billion yuan, a sequential increase of 6.0% and a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [3] - The net profit for Q3 was 520 million yuan, reflecting a sequential increase of 20.5% but a year-on-year decline of 58.7% [3] Coal Business Overview - In the first three quarters of 2024, coal production was 28.74 million tons, down 17.6% year-on-year, while sales volume was 26.58 million tons, down 15.9% [3] - The average selling price of coal was 564 yuan per ton, a decrease of 7.0% year-on-year, while unit costs increased by 12.2% to 342 yuan per ton [3] - The gross profit margin improved by 10.4 percentage points to 39.5% despite the challenges faced [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 24.27 billion yuan, 27.07 billion yuan, and 28.55 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 2.37 billion yuan, 2.74 billion yuan, and 3.02 billion yuan [4][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the same period are 0.66 yuan, 0.76 yuan, and 0.84 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 11.55, 10.01, and 9.08 [4][6]