东方证券：自营显著改善驱动公司业绩正增

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's self-operated business has significantly improved, driving positive performance growth [3][5] - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 14.08 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.81%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.30 billion, up 15.57% year-on-year [2][5] - The weighted average ROE is 4.16%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2][5] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company reported an operating revenue of 5.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.16% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.03% [2][5] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 1.19 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.58% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.81% [2][5] - The company’s total assets as of Q3 2024 were 322.20 billion, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 79.07% [3][10] Revenue Breakdown - Brokerage business net income for the first nine months of 2024 was 1.60 billion, down 26.0% year-on-year [6] - Asset management revenue for the same period was 1.02 billion, down 37.1% year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in fund management fees [6] - Investment income saw a significant increase, with net investment income reaching 4.14 billion, up 77.1% year-on-year, accounting for 45.4% of the main revenue [7] Future Earnings Forecast - The company expects revenue for 2024-2026 to be 18.00 billion, 19.40 billion, and 21.24 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.3%, 7.9%, and 9.4% [7][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 4.40 billion, 5.10 billion, and 5.55 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 60.1%, 15.2%, and 7.7% respectively [7][8] - The estimated EPS for 2024-2026 is 0.52, 0.60, and 0.64 yuan per share [7][8]