Tsingtao Brewery(SH:600600) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-11-01 13:17Investment Rating - Investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on sales volume and structure, with a wait for industry recovery [1] - Revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 is reported at 28.96 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders is 4.99 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 1.7% [3] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 4.393 billion, 4.832 billion, and 5.145 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.22, 3.54, and 3.77 [3] Financial Performance Summary - Q1-Q3 2024 beer sales volume decreased by 7.0% year-on-year, with an average price increase of 0.5% [4] - In Q3 2024, beer sales volume decreased by 5.1% year-on-year, with average price showing a slight decline of 0.2% [4] - The gross profit margin improved by 1.19 percentage points year-on-year in Q3 2024, attributed to a decrease in raw material costs [5] - The company expects a slight decline in industry sales for the year, with a recovery anticipated in 2025 [6] Financial Forecasts - Projected revenue for 2024 is 31.807 billion, a decrease of 6.3% year-on-year, with a recovery expected in 2025 [7] - Projected net profit for 2024 is 4.393 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [7] - The company’s P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 20.8, 18.9, and 17.8 respectively [7]