Ningbo Sunrise(002937) 开源证券·2024-11-01 13:52Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit in 2024Q3 were under pressure due to a decline in sales from its major automotive client, BMW, and the impact of RMB appreciation and depreciation from new factory operations [2][3] - The company's automotive electronics business is expected to continue high growth, supported by its strategic partnerships in the global smart terminal and new energy vehicle sectors [4] - The company's capacity expansion in new energy vehicle components is progressing steadily, with potential for further customer expansion in the automotive electronics sector [1][4] Financial Performance - 2024Q1-Q3 revenue: 1.478 billion yuan, YoY -0.60%; net profit: 192 million yuan, YoY +1.33%; gross margin: 26.96%, up 0.39 pcts YoY [2] - 2024Q3 revenue: 474 million yuan, YoY -8.63%, QoQ -5.92%; net profit: 45 million yuan, YoY -39.63%, QoQ -40.27%; gross margin: 24.42%, down 3.8 pcts YoY [2] - 2024E/2025E/2026E net profit forecast adjusted to 270/340/400 million yuan (previously 320/400/510 million yuan) [2] Market and Industry Analysis - BMW's global deliveries in 2024Q3 fell by 13% YoY, with a significant 29.8% drop in the Chinese market, impacting the company's revenue [3] - The company is strengthening its position in the automotive insert molding sector, with a focus on expanding its customer base beyond BMW [2][4] - The new energy vehicle market is expected to drive future growth, with the company's capacity layout and strategic partnerships positioning it well for future opportunities [4] Valuation Metrics - Current PE ratio: 18.4x (2024E), 14.9x (2025E), 12.7x (2026E) [2] - Current PB ratio: 3.1x (2024E), 2.6x (2025E), 2.2x (2026E) [5] - EPS forecast: 0.92 yuan (2024E), 1.13 yuan (2025E), 1.32 yuan (2026E) [5] Growth and Profitability - Revenue growth forecast: 4.7% (2024E), 17.1% (2025E), 14.4% (2026E) [5] - Net profit growth forecast: 2.2% (2024E), 23.3% (2025E), 17.3% (2026E) [5] - Gross margin forecast: 25.9% (2024E), 25.5% (2025E), 25.5% (2026E) [5] - ROE forecast: 15.9% (2024E), 16.9% (2025E), 17.0% (2026E) [5]