Hopewind(603063) 西南证券·2024-11-01 14:14Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) with a target price of 23.20 RMB for the next 6 months [1] Core Views - Net profit margin is under short-term pressure, while overseas business is growing rapidly [1] - Overseas business accounted for 8.2% of total revenue in Q3 2024, up from 6.7% in Q1 2024 and 7% in Q2 2024 [2] - The company's energy storage business has broad coverage and strong growth potential, ranking among the top five in terms of total power delivered in the PCS market [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.62 billion, 4.49 billion, and 5.30 billion RMB in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits of 394.65 million, 516.05 million, and 649.19 million RMB [3][6] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 2.31 billion RMB, down 11.6% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 250 million RMB, down 36.9% YoY [1] - In Q3 2024, revenue was 930 million RMB, down 13.4% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 100 million RMB, down 50.4% YoY [1] - Gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 37.5%, up 3.1 percentage points YoY, while net margin was 11.8%, down 3.7 percentage points YoY [2] - Overseas revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 was 170 million RMB, up 69.8% YoY, with a gross margin of 51.1%, 15.5 percentage points higher than domestic gross margin [2] Business Segments - New energy power control business revenue was 1.8 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, down 13.4% YoY, with a gross margin of 34.3%, up 2.8 percentage points YoY [2] - Engineering transmission business revenue was 320 million RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, down 6.3% YoY, with a gross margin of 41.3%, down 3.6 percentage points YoY [2] - The company's new 2.5MW PCS product has achieved GW-level batch shipments, leveraging its technological advantages [3] Valuation and Forecast - The company is valued at 20x PE for 2025, with a target price of 23.20 RMB, maintaining a "Buy" rating [3][7] - The average PE ratio of comparable companies in the industry is 24x, 19x, and 15x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7] - The company's ROE is expected to be 9.20%, 10.92%, and 12.31% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][10] Industry Outlook - The industry is expected to perform in line with the market over the next 6 months, with overall returns ranging between -5% and 5% compared to the relevant market index [12]