[Table_Summary] 一周大事记 国内：6月财新 PMI 重回扩张区间，海洋经济迎政策利好。6 月 30 日，财政 部、国家税务总局、商务部发布《关于境外投资者以分配利润直接投资税收抵 免政策的公告》，有助于引导外资更多流向高新技术等产业，稳定扩大外资规 模；7月 1日，中国 6月财新制造业 PMI录得 50.4，高于上月 2.1个百分点， 重回扩张区间，市场竞争加剧和外部因素不确定性叠加，分项数据出现分化； 同日，习近平主持召开中央财经委员会第六次会议，研究纵深推进全国统一大 市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题，后续 "反内卷" 力度有望进一步加 大，同时建议关注深海机器人、海工装备、深海作业等相关行业；2 日，国家 发展改革委近日安排超 3000亿元支持 2025年第三批"两重"建设项目，"两 重" 建设有望在下半年接力"两新"成为支撑内需稳定增长的重要力量。 ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 07 月 04 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（6.30-7.4） "反内卷"信号释放，美国非农又超预期 摘要 海外：大美丽法案通过国会，香港金管局买入港元。当地时间 6 ...

AI专题·从海外C端应用看AI进展 订阅服务迎来价值增量， 广告平台有望持续增长 西南证券研究院 海外研究团队 2025年7月 核心观点 目 录 一、C端应用：订阅平台表现相对领先，广告平台基本面持续改善 三、广告平台：AI助力广告转化效率增强，平台收入增长加速 2.1 Duolingo：AI功能打造Max订阅层级，高级订阅持续渗透 2.2 Spotify：AI功能支撑订阅服务涨价，带动用户付费水平提升 二、订阅平台：AI带来订阅产品价值提升，业绩贡献逐渐清晰 3.1 Snapchat：广告收入同比增速由负转正，Snapchat+贡献订阅增量 3.2 Pinterest：广告工具Performance+效果增强，广告投资回报表现强劲 1.1 平台业务对比：产品内容形式各异，收入及成本类型差异明显 1.2 AI进展对比：AI功能持续迭代，降本增效及收入贡献日益显现 2 1 C端应用：订阅平台表现相对领先，广告平台基本面持续改善 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 2022-11-30 2022-12-31 2023-01-31 2023-02-28 2023-03-31 2023-0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market in July may show a volatile and bullish trend. The fundamentals may not significantly interfere with the bond market. The market has already anticipated the good performance of the first - half economic data, and the impact of tariffs on bond market pricing has diminished. The logic of the bond market in July may revolve around capital prices, fiscal supply, and institutional demand. The capital market is expected to remain loose under the central bank's care, but short - term interest rates may not break through significantly before the central bank restarts Treasury bond purchases. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields may face resistance at 1.6% and 1.8% respectively. The market is likely to maintain a volatile and bullish trend before a new round of interest - rate cut expectations. Investment strategies can consider a "short - credit + long - local - bond" portfolio for allocation, and choose the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond (250011) and 30 - year Treasury bond active bond (2500002) for trading [6][34]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 7 - Month Bond Market: The Beginning of Breaking the Situation - **Economic Situation**: In the first half of 2025, the domestic economy showed a steady recovery. The average growth rate of social financing stock from January to May was about 8.4%, with an increasing year - on - year growth rate. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods as of May was 6.4%, 2.77 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024. The average export growth rate from January to May was about 5.64%, and it was expected to perform well in June. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment generally remained in the range of 4% - 5% [4][10]. - **Monetary Policy**: After the quarter - end, the monetary policy is expected to support the continued loose liquidity. Although July is a large tax - payment period with potential local - bond supply pressure, the central bank has sufficient policy tools and space to deal with it. Tools such as restarting Treasury bond purchases and reserve - requirement ratio cuts may be considered, and the possibility of early policy implementation has increased. The capital market in July is expected to remain loose [4][20]. - **Institutional Demand**: Banks and insurance companies may still have a demand for bond replenishment at the beginning of July. Insurance companies may have more room to increase their investment in July as the ceiling of the predetermined interest rate of life - insurance products may be lowered in the third quarter, which is expected to increase premium income and support their allocation willingness, but the support for ultra - long - term Treasury bonds may be limited [4][26][29]. - **Political Bureau Meeting**: The July Political Bureau Meeting may focus more on economic development, and the policy direction is unlikely to change. It may continue to require fiscal and monetary policies to support economic stability and emphasize the tone and implementation direction of monetary policy in 2025 and fiscal incremental measures [31]. 3.2 Important Matters - **Fed's Interest - Rate Cut Expectation**: On June 24, local time, Fed Chairman Powell did not rule out the possibility of an early interest - rate cut when answering questions from members of Congress, which increased the market's expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut [35]. - **MLF Operation in June**: On June 24, the central bank announced a 300 - billion - yuan MLF operation on June 25, with a net investment of 118 billion yuan considering the maturity scale [38]. 3.3 Money Market - **Open - Market Operations and Capital Interest - Rate Trends**: From June 23 to 27, the central bank's open - market operations had a net investment of 126.72 billion yuan. From June 30 to July 4, it is expected that 202.75 billion yuan of base currency will be withdrawn, all from reverse - repurchase maturities. The 7 - day pledged - repurchase interest rate rose significantly near the quarter - end [40][43]. - **Certificate of Deposit Interest - Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume**: Last week, the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was - 411.25 billion yuan. The primary - market issuance was mainly by city commercial banks. The issuance interest rate decreased compared with the previous week, and the secondary - market yields of all - term certificates of deposit increased [48][54]. 3.4 Bond Market - **Primary Market**: Last week, the issuance scale of local new special bonds increased significantly, promoting the acceleration of the net financing rhythm of long - term local bonds. The issuance scale of Treasury bonds decreased, but the issuance result of the 30 - year ultra - long - term special Treasury bond was good. The total issuance of interest - rate bonds was 867.64 billion yuan, with a net financing of 815.818 billion yuan [57][59]. - **Secondary Market**: The market showed a bullish and steep trend of "short - term down, long - term up". The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds changed by - 1.00BP, - 0.69BP, 0.40BP, 2.85BP, 0.66BP, and 1.20BP respectively. The trading volume and turnover rate of 10 - year Treasury and CDB active bonds decreased. The spread between the 10 - year Treasury active bond and the second - active bond narrowed, and the term spread and the spread between long - term local bonds and Treasury bonds widened [64][66][72]. 3.5 Institutional Behavior Tracking - **Leveraged Trading and Spot - Bond Market Transactions**: Last week, the leveraged trading scale decreased as the capital price increased. In the spot - bond market, state - owned banks continued to increase their holdings of Treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years, but the intensity weakened. Rural commercial banks switched to bond - replenishment operations, with a net purchase of 45.4 billion yuan. Securities firms and insurance companies increased their purchases of long - term Treasury bonds, and funds continued to increase their holdings but with reduced intensity [79][87]. - **Institutional Leverage Ratio**: In May 2025, the overall leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market was about 118.46%, slightly higher than that in April. The leverage ratios of commercial banks, securities firms, and other institutions were about 110.53%, 183.89%, and 131.06% respectively [79]. - **Trading - Desk Information**: The current average cost of major trading desks for adding positions in 10 - year Treasury bonds is between 1.64% and 1.65%. The average duration of all pure - bond funds and high - performing pure - bond funds increased slightly last week [91][97].

[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 06 月 30 日 证券研究报告•金融工程报告 机器学习金融工程月报 机器学习因子选股月报（2025 年 7 月） 摘要 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：郑琳琳 执业证号：S1250522110001 邮箱：zhengll@swsc.com.cn 联系人：祝晨宇 邮箱：zhcy@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 [Table_Summary] GAN_GRU因子：基于前期报告《量价时序特征挖掘模型在深度学习因子中的 应用》（2024年 7月 11日）中提到的 GAN_GRU 模型，定期更新 GAN_GRU 因子自 2024年以来表现情况。其中 GAN_GRU因子为利用生成式对抗神经网 络 GAN 模型进行量价时序特征处理后再利用 GRU 模型进行时序特征编码得 到的选股因子。 表现跟踪：自 2019 年 1 月至 2025 年 6 月，月频调仓的基础上，GAN_GRU 因子在全 A 范围内 IC均值 11.54%，多头组合年化超额收益率 24.95%；截至 2025 年 6 月 27 日，GAN_GRU ...

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 06 月 29 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•机械设备 机器人行业周报（0623-0629） | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | [股票家数 Table_BaseData] | 444 | | 行业总市值（亿元） | 36,976.27 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 35,487.88 | | 行业市盈率 TTM | 31.6 | | 沪深 300 市盈率 TTM | 13.0 | 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 [Table_QuotePic] 行业相对指数表现 -10% 1% 12% 23% 34% 45% 24/6 24/8 24/10 24/12 25/2 25/4 25/6 机械设备 沪深300 数据来源：聚源数据 领益智造举办机器人战略发布会，xAI Grok 4 发布在即 投资要点 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：邰桂龙 执业证号：S1250521050002 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：tgl@swsc.com.cn 分析师：周鑫雨 执业证号：S125052307 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified for the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated long-term development confidence by repurchasing 1% of its shares, amounting to 1.6632 million shares at a total cost of approximately 21.5 million yuan [7]. - The launch of the "China Tour Lisheng Player Ranking" aims to promote high-level golf development in China, with a strategic focus on expanding event scale, increasing prize money, and enhancing international cooperation [2]. - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth, with projected revenues of 561.86 million yuan in 2025, 744.63 million yuan in 2026, and 973.92 million yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 27.49%, 32.53%, and 30.79% respectively [3][9]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 61.29 million yuan in 2025, 88.76 million yuan in 2026, and 112.99 million yuan in 2027, with significant growth rates of 257.70%, 44.83%, and 27.30% respectively [3][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to improve from -0.24 yuan in 2024 to 0.37 yuan in 2025, 0.54 yuan in 2026, and 0.69 yuan in 2027 [3][9]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from -2.45% in 2024 to 12.28% in 2025, reaching 19.37% by 2027 [3][9]. Market Position and Developments - The company is recognized as a leading operator in the automotive sports sector in China, with ongoing projects such as the Hainan International Circuit, which is expected to enhance profitability due to favorable climate conditions allowing for year-round operations [7]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 2.144 billion yuan and a total asset value of 1.057 billion yuan, indicating a solid financial foundation [4].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a favorable investment outlook for the autonomous driving industry, particularly focusing on the acceleration of true L3 technology and the emergence of L4 scenarios, suggesting a significant investment opportunity in this sector by 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The current state of development shows that only L2+ technology has been widely adopted, while true L3 technology is expected to be implemented within the year. L4 technology, particularly in limited scenarios like Robotaxi and Robovan, is anticipated to achieve commercial viability, with leading companies likely to turn profitable by the end of 2025 [3]. - Key technological advancements include the mass production of VLM technology for L3 and the high barriers to entry for L4 technologies, which require close monitoring. The demand for L2+, L3, and L4 technologies is expected to boost sales of core components [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Classification and Definition of Autonomous Driving - Autonomous driving is classified into six levels (L0 to L5), with L0 being manual driving and L5 being fully autonomous driving without human intervention [6][10]. 2. Historical Development of Autonomous Driving - The report outlines key milestones in the evolution of autonomous driving technology, from early explorations in the 2000s to significant advancements expected by 2025, including the introduction of L3 and L4 technologies [14][88]. 3. Technical Routes of Autonomous Driving - The report discusses three technical levels: perception, decision-making, and execution, highlighting the competition between multi-sensor and pure vision routes for L4 and L3 technologies [20][24]. 4. Business Models of Autonomous Driving - The monetization strategies for L3 and L4 technologies are categorized into product sales (L3), service sales (L4), and technology licensing (L3 & L4), indicating a dual development path for L3 and L4 technologies [91][94]. 5. Key Players and Market Dynamics - Leading companies in L3 technology include Tesla, Xiaopeng, and Li Auto, while L4 technology is spearheaded by Waymo and other platform operators. The report emphasizes the importance of self-developed technology and partnerships in driving market success [96][100].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the low-altitude economy industry [1]. Core Insights - The low-altitude economy sector is experiencing accelerated development, with significant policy support and emerging applications in logistics and tourism. Major manufacturers are seeing an increase in orders, indicating a trend towards large-scale industrial growth [6][18][19]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From June 9 to June 22, the low-altitude economy sector underperformed the market, with the Wind Low Altitude Economy Index declining by 3.01%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.26 percentage points [12]. Policy Dynamics - On June 12, the State Council introduced policies to promote the low-altitude economy in Shenzhen, focusing on AI and low-altitude services as strategic emerging industries. The city has opened nearly 300 drone routes and completed over 1.7 million cargo flights [18]. - Chengdu's government released 14 measures to enhance low-altitude flight capabilities and market development, effective for three years [19]. - Tenjin and Nanjing have launched low-altitude flight service platforms to support flight safety and application exploration [23][24]. Industry Developments - GAC's GOVY AirCab, a flying car, was officially launched on June 12, with a price not exceeding 1.68 million RMB, targeting low-altitude tourism applications [21]. - EHang signed strategic partnerships to promote eVTOL applications in cold regions and Latin America, enhancing its operational capabilities [27][28]. - A joint venture between WoFei and Wolong Electric Drive aims to develop high-performance motors for eVTOLs, addressing key technical challenges in electric aviation [30]. - YTO Express established a drone company to enhance logistics automation, marking a significant step in integrating drone technology into logistics [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the machinery equipment industry as of June 15, 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The robot industry index underperformed the market, with a decline of 2.6% from June 9 to June 15, 2025, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.3 percentage points [5][12]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Civil Affairs have initiated a pilot program for intelligent elderly care robots, set to run from 2025 to 2027, focusing on application verification and standard development [17][18]. - The world's first embodied intelligent robot 4S store will open in Beijing, aiming to create a comprehensive service system covering the entire lifecycle of robots [19]. - New advancements include the release of the second-generation humanoid robot Codroid 02 by Estun, featuring a height of 170 cm, weight of 70 kg, and 31 degrees of freedom [21]. - Skild AI, a robotics "brain" company, raised $100 million in a Series B funding round, with a valuation of approximately $4.5 billion [29]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The robot index decreased by 2.6%, underperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 by 2.3 percentage points each [5][12]. Industry Dynamics - The pilot program for intelligent elderly care robots includes three main components: collaborative tackling of challenges, application verification in real-life scenarios, and the establishment of standards and evaluation systems [17][18]. - The first embodied intelligent robot 4S store will be launched in Beijing, integrating sales, spare parts supply, after-sales service, and feedback mechanisms [19]. - Estun's new humanoid robot Codroid 02 was introduced, showcasing advanced control systems and high task execution success rates [21]. - The Redwood AI model was launched, designed for humanoid robots to perform various household tasks [26]. - Strategic partnerships are being formed, such as the collaboration between Kepler and Hanwei Technology to advance embodied intelligence commercialization [30]. Related Research - The report highlights various companies involved in the robotics sector, including those focusing on key components like actuators, sensors, and humanoid robots [6].

Domestic Developments - The new policy document aims to transition China's social security system from a "bottom-line" to a "development-oriented" model, benefiting sectors like consumption, elderly care, and healthcare[9] - The average per capita consumption expenditure in China for 2024 is projected to be CNY 28,227, with urban residents at CNY 34,557 and rural residents at CNY 19,280, indicating a need for adjustments in minimum living standards linked to consumption[9] - The "one elderly, one child" policy is expected to stimulate demand in the maternal and child market, which reached CNY 40,505 billion in 2023, growing by 7.86% year-on-year[12] Financial and Economic Policies - The Chinese government is promoting financial support for the Greater Bay Area, allowing companies listed in Hong Kong to return to A-shares, which could enhance capital flow and support sectors like AI and low-altitude economy[13][15] - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange have introduced measures to enhance financial integration across the Taiwan Strait, aiming to strengthen the financial ecosystem and support cross-border trade[16][17] International Trade and Economic Indicators - The U.S. May CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, below the expected 2.5%, indicating that the comprehensive tariff policy has not yet impacted consumer prices significantly[24] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its 2026 crude oil production forecast down from 13.5 million barrels per day to 13.3 million barrels per day, reflecting challenges in the energy sector[22] Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices increased by 3.55% week-on-week, while iron ore and copper prices rose by 0.27% and 0.88%, respectively, indicating upward pressure in commodity markets[26] - Real estate sales area in China surged by 43.96% week-on-week, and the average daily retail sales in the passenger car market grew by 19% year-on-year in the first week of June[26]