汽车行业2026年投资策略 汽车出海迈入深水区，智能化&机器人大展宏图 西南证券研究院 汽车研究团队 2026年1月 核心观点 智能汽车：政策催化下产业趋势确立，汽车智能化迎来加速突破期。1）政策端稳步放开，随着L3车型准入、路测牌 照获批，预计L3标准有望在2026年正式落地，持续赋能智能驾驶产业发展。2）AI赋能下智驾方案趋于收敛，从传统 模块化路线、到端到端技术路线，再到VLA模型、世界模型与端到端融合方案并驾齐驱，技术路径趋于收敛，加速智 驾行业变革。3）供给端更加丰富，车企智驾平权加速推出，从"高端选配"转向"全民标配"，不断满足消费者智 能化偏好需求；2025年前四个月，新上市车辆高速NOA/城市NOA装配率分别达到30.20%/34.82%，2026年高速/ 城市NOA装配有望实现跨越式增长。4）资本市场方面，自动驾驶行业融资迎爆发式增长。据不完全统计，2025年 全年，自动驾驶领域共有35家企业获得融资，披露总金额超过582亿元，融资数额约为2023年该行业的近三倍。 新能源汽车：以旧换新政策延续，出口有望贡献增量。2026年以旧换新政策聚焦进一步延扩报废更新旧车补贴范围 、优化报废更新补贴标 ...

摘要 [Table_Summary] 一周大事记 国内：IMF 对中国经济持乐观预期，财政金融促内需政策发布。1 月 19 日， 国际货币基金组织上调 2025 年、2026 年中国经济增速预测 0.2、0.3 个百分 点至 5%、4.5%，理由包括外贸环境改善、宏观政策发力及新兴产业增长迅猛， 既凸显人工智能等新引擎作用，也指出我国内需不足的挑战；20 日，财政部 明确 2026 年财政支出力度"只增不减"，并发布促内需一揽子政策，通过降 低信贷成本、支持民间投资，推动供需良性循环，为扩大有效需求提供财政金 融支撑；21日，工信部介绍 2025年工信发展成效，工业经济呈现"稳、进、 新、活"态势，高技术制造业增势强劲，新质生产力培育提速，这有效发挥了 工业经济"压舱石"作用，为 2026 年工业生产稳中有升奠定基础；同日，住 建部部长倪虹明确"十五五"房地产发展重点，即推动"好房子"建设、构建 房地产发展新模式，推动住房品质升级，保障消费者权益，助力稳定房地产市 场。 海外：日债收益率继续创新高，格陵兰岛引发美欧争执。当地时间 1月 19日， 日本首相宣布提前大选并计划推行扩张性财政政策，日经指数下跌、40 ...

有色金属行业2026年投资策略 资源大周期，把握金属全面牛市 西南证券研究院 金属研究团队 2026年1月 核心观点 1 回顾2025：国内方面：经济数据有筑底迹象，CPI、PPI均处在偏底部位置，地产新开工和竣工增速环比逐步 好转，新旧动能转换，低端制造及地产的拖累逐步见底，新经济的动能逐渐显现。海外方面：美联储降息预 期反复，叠加贸易战影响，全球经济格局和贸易流面临重塑，逆全球化对经济的影响愈发明显。资源板块： 2025年，黄金板块表现亮眼，铜受贸易战带来的库存移动和地区升贴水变化，表现强势。铝价维持高位，成 本塌陷带来利润扩张。加工板块：25年贸易战带来的抢转口效应，加工板块业绩普遍预期较好，提前出口带 来的支撑仍在，单位加工利润整体维持在偏低位置，等待进一步的驱动。 2 展望2026年：我们建议把握四条主线：①分母端扩张：金银：黄金中长期看多方向较一致，主要把握交易节 奏，主要关注联储降息预期和贸易战边际变化，看多黄金和黄金股。金银比价较高，带来白银上涨动能较大 ，白银标的也应重点关注。②分子端改善：铝铜锡： 25年氧化铝下跌带来电解铝单位盈利明显改善，吨铝盈 利或将继续维持较高位置，但是也应警惕短期 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the medical equipment industry, with an expected year-on-year growth of 25% for the year 2025 [22]. Core Insights - The medical equipment industry is experiencing a slight decline in December data year-on-year, attributed to a high base effect from the previous year. However, there is a significant month-on-month increase of 38% due to accelerated budget spending at year-end [3]. - The report highlights that the current round of medical equipment upgrades is nearing its end, with expectations for a new round of equipment replacement in 2025, which is projected to be no less than the previous round [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies, including the issuance of long-term special bonds to support large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer replacement programs [15]. Summary by Relevant Sections Medical Imaging - December figures for medical imaging reached 9.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 11%, while the forecast for 2025 is 69.3 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 37% [5]. Life Information and Support - In December, life information and support equipment generated 2.6 billion yuan, an increase of 8%, with a projected total of 16.7 billion yuan for 2025, marking a 28% growth [5]. Endoscopes - Soft endoscopes reported 1.1 billion yuan in December, down 9%, while hard endoscopes reached 1.2 billion yuan, down 7%. The 2025 projections for both are 7.8 billion yuan for soft endoscopes (+12%) and 7.8 billion yuan for hard endoscopes (+3%) [5]. Radiation Therapy - December figures for radiation therapy stood at 1.6 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1%, with a forecast of 9.6 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a growth of 32% [48]. Surgical Robots - Surgical robots saw a significant decline in December, with figures at 600 million yuan, down 24%, but are expected to reach 5.2 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a robust growth of 54% [51]. Key Companies - Major companies in the sector include Mindray, which reported 1.9 billion yuan in December (+20%) and is projected to reach 11.2 billion yuan in 2025 (+35%), and United Imaging, with December figures of 2.2 billion yuan (0% change) and a forecast of 12.6 billion yuan (+37%) for 2025 [55][58].

汽车行业2026年投资策略 汽车出海迈入深水区，智能化&机器人大展宏图 西南证券研究院 汽车研究团队 2026年1月 核心观点 1 智能汽车：政策催化下产业趋势确立，汽车智能化迎来加速突破期。1）政策端稳步放开，随着L3车型准入、路测牌 照获批，预计L3标准有望在2026年正式落地，持续赋能智能驾驶产业发展。2）AI赋能下智驾方案趋于收敛，从传统 模块化路线、到端到端技术路线，再到VLA模型、世界模型与端到端融合方案并驾齐驱，技术路径趋于收敛，加速智 驾行业变革。3）供给端更加丰富，车企智驾平权加速推出，从"高端选配"转向"全民标配"，不断满足消费者智 能化偏好需求；2025年前四个月，新上市车辆高速NOA/城市NOA装配率分别达到30.20%/34.82%，2026年高速/ 城市NOA装配有望实现跨越式增长。4）资本市场方面，自动驾驶行业融资迎爆发式增长。据不完全统计，2025年 全年，自动驾驶领域共有35家企业获得融资，披露总金额超过582亿元，融资数额约为2023年该行业的近三倍。 新能源汽车：以旧换新政策延续，出口有望贡献增量。2026年以旧换新政策聚焦进一步延扩报废更新旧车补贴范围 、优化报废更新补 ...

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2026 年 01 月 22 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•机械设备 3D 打印行业系列报告（一） 工业级与消费级应用双轮驱动，行业迈入快速发展期 风险提示：核心零部件依赖进口、降本增效不及预期、市场需求不及预期等风险。 投资要点 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：邰桂龙 执业证号：S1250521050002 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：tgl@swsc.com.cn 分析师：杨云杰 执业证号：S1250525100001 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：yyjie@swsc.com.cn [Table_QuotePic] 行业相对指数表现 | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | [股票家数 Table_BaseData] | 443 | | 行业总市值（亿元） | 52,599.57 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 49,623.19 | | 行业市盈率 TTM | 42.7 | | 沪深 300 市盈率 TTM | 14.2 | 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 -6% 5% 17% 28% ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a significant acceleration in BD (Business Development) overseas for Chinese innovative drugs, suggesting a positive investment outlook for the industry [3]. Core Insights - The number of BD projects, upfront payments, and total amounts for Chinese pharmaceutical companies significantly increased in 2025, with 165 projects, over $7.03 billion in upfront payments (up 226.8% year-on-year), and a total amount of $136.68 billion (up 192.2% year-on-year) [2][7]. - The report highlights a focus on dual antibodies (双抗), antibody-drug conjugates (ADC), GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP1RA), and small nucleic acids as key areas for BD overseas [2][3]. Summary by Sections BD Project Growth - In 2025, the quarterly breakdown of BD projects shows 41, 43, 30, and 51 projects in Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 respectively, with significant year-on-year increases [2][7]. - Upfront payments for each quarter were $0.9 billion, $2.0 billion, $1.86 billion, and $2.27 billion, reflecting substantial growth rates [2][7]. Outbound BD Models - The predominant model for BD remains license in/out, while the NewCo/Co-CoJV model is gaining attention, with limited successful cases of independent commercialization [2][12][13]. - In 2025, MNCs (Multinational Corporations) accounted for $4.71 billion in upfront payments, representing 67% of total BD upfront payments [12]. Key Drug Categories - Dual antibodies saw a remarkable increase, with $3.5 billion in upfront payments (up 414.7%) and a total amount of $21.85 billion (up 361.5%) in 2025 [2][18]. - ADCs emerged as a significant focus, with $1.63 billion in upfront payments (up 676.2%) and a total amount of $21.13 billion (up 390.6%) [2][26]. - GLP-1RA projects achieved $470 million in upfront payments, marking a 109.8% increase, with a total amount of $9.6 billion [2]. NewCo Model - The NewCo model has facilitated overseas BD, with a total of $350 million in upfront payments and $13.74 billion in potential total amounts from 2023 to 2025 [17]. - In 2025, NewCo projects secured $110 million in upfront payments and $4.76 billion in potential total amounts [17]. Clinical Development Stages - Approximately 62% of molecules were in early clinical stages (pre-clinical to before Phase II) at the time of BD, indicating a trend towards early-stage licensing [8][9].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the adjustment period for high-end liquor is expected to end, highlighting the long-term investment value in this sector. The price of mainstream liquor has decreased from approximately 2200 yuan around the Spring Festival in 2025 to about 1560 yuan currently, with a notable decline since June [4][30][32] - The beer industry is anticipated to benefit from a low base effect in 2026, with emerging retail channels and government consumption stimulus policies expected to drive recovery [5][42] - The dairy industry is currently in a transitional phase, with low milk prices expected to rebound as demand improves and supply stabilizes. The long-term growth potential remains strong due to ongoing consumption upgrades [5][60][63] - The condiment sector is projected to benefit from a gradual recovery in restaurant consumption, with both B2B and B2C channels expected to see improved sales as consumer spending recovers [5][79] Liquor Industry - High-end liquor is expected to stabilize after a period of adjustment, with long-term investment value becoming more apparent. The market share of premium liquor brands continues to rise, and the consumption upgrade trend remains intact despite short-term impacts [4][30][34] - The competition in the mid-range liquor segment has intensified, with brands experiencing varying levels of performance due to market pressures. The demand for mid-range products has been notably affected by weak business consumption [36][39] - Inventory management is crucial, with manufacturers actively controlling supply to maintain price stability. The introduction of information systems has improved inventory management capabilities [40][39] Beer Industry - The beer market is expected to recover due to a low base effect from 2025, with national leaders likely to benefit significantly. The rise of instant retail channels is also anticipated to drive growth in non-on-premise beer sales [42][43] - The industry is entering a mature phase, with a focus on premiumization and product structure upgrades. The market share of high-end products is increasing, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences [47][50] - Cost stability is expected in 2026, with barley prices remaining low and contributing to profit margins. The overall cost structure is anticipated to support profitability in the beer sector [51][53] Dairy Industry - The dairy sector is currently experiencing a down cycle in milk prices, but a rebound is expected as demand improves and supply stabilizes. The long-term growth potential remains strong due to increasing consumer preferences for high-quality dairy products [60][63] - The population base in China supports the demand for dairy products, with significant growth potential in rural areas where consumption is currently lower compared to urban areas [66][70] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards high-quality growth, with leading companies focusing on improving profitability through better cost management and efficiency [60][77] Condiment Industry - The condiment sector is expected to benefit from a gradual recovery in restaurant consumption, with B2B channels likely to see significant improvements as consumer spending increases [79][84] - The industry has shown resilience, with a stable growth rate over the past five years. The market size for condiments has surpassed 650 billion yuan, driven by rising consumer demand and changing eating habits [83][84] - Cost advantages are anticipated in 2026, with raw material prices remaining low, which will help maintain stable growth in the condiment sector [79][80]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The net inflow of bond ETFs showed a structural divergence last week, with the net outflows of interest - rate bond and credit - bond ETFs narrowing, and convertible bond ETFs getting a small net inflow, which may reflect the trend of some funds switching between major asset classes during the adjustment of the equity market [4][7]. - The outflow of funds mainly came from the science - innovation bond ETF, which had a large net outflow for two consecutive weeks after a large - scale inflow at the end of last year [4][8]. - The share of convertible bond ETFs increased significantly, while the share of science - innovation bond ETFs decreased significantly [4][18]. Summary by Directory 1.1 各类债券 ETF 资金净流入情况 - The net inflow of bond ETFs was structurally differentiated. Last week, the net inflows of interest - rate bond, credit - bond, and convertible bond ETFs were - 5.061 billion yuan, - 14.547 billion yuan, and + 1.703 billion yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of - 17.905 billion yuan in the bond ETF market. As of January 16, 2026, the bond ETF fund scale was 747.966 billion yuan, down 2.17% from the previous week's close and 9.78% from the beginning of the year, accounting for 12.31% of the total market ETF scale [7]. - The outflow of funds mainly came from the science - innovation bond ETF, with a net outflow of 8.568 billion yuan last week, followed by the benchmark market - making credit - bond ETF (- 5.023 billion yuan) and the policy - financial bond ETF (- 2.651 billion yuan) [8]. 1.2 各类债券 ETF 份额及代表产品净值走势 - The share of convertible bond ETFs increased by 3.5%, leading other types of bond ETFs, while the total share of bond ETFs decreased by 0.2%. Compared with the end of last month, the total share of bond ETFs decreased by 3.5% [18]. - Last week, the bond market recovered, and the net values of major bond ETFs were boosted. The net values of representative products of various bond ETFs increased by 0.03% - 1.05% compared with the previous week's close [21]. 1.3 基准做市信用债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The shares of all 8 existing benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs decreased, with a total decrease of 55.11 million shares compared with the previous week's close [26]. - The net values of all 8 products increased, with an increase of 0.05% - 0.10% compared with the previous week's close [28]. 1.4 科创债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The shares of science - innovation bond ETFs, which had received a large amount of funds before, flowed out intensively. The net inflow of shares last week was - 84.37 million shares, a decrease of 2.71% from the previous week. The top three products with the largest share outflows were Huatai - PineBridge Science - Innovation Bond ETF, GF Science - Innovation Bond ETF, and Bosera Science - Innovation Bond ETF [31]. - The net values of science - innovation bond ETFs rebounded slightly. The average net values of the first - batch and second - batch science - innovation bond ETFs increased by 0.07% and 0.08% respectively compared with the previous week's close [33]. 1.5 单只债券 ETF 市场表现情况 - Benefiting from the strong bond market, the net values of bond ETF products generally rose. The convertible bond ETF, Shanghai - Stock - Exchange Convertible Bond ETF, and Bosera 30 - Year Treasury Bond ETF led the gains, with increases of 1.05%, 0.68%, and 0.37% respectively [36]. - In terms of the premium/discount rate, the Shanghai - Stock - Exchange Convertible Bond ETF and the convertible bond ETF had the highest premium rates, at 0.04% and 0.02% respectively. In terms of scale change, the Shanghai - Stock - Exchange Convertible Bond ETF (+ 1.561 billion yuan), the convertible bond ETF (+ 0.677 billion yuan), and the short - term financing ETF (+ 0.252 billion yuan) ranked the top three in net inflow [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the central bank's monetary policy may continue to focus on structural measures, with "structural easing" as the priority direction, aiming to support the real economy and address structural weaknesses [2]. - The "stabilizer" role of banks remains effective, while the trading behavior of securities firms and other trading desks may develop new characteristics [2]. - Looking ahead to the bond market in Q1 2026, short - term interest rates are expected to maintain their advantage, and the trading logic of long - term interest rates may be further deepened. The performance of 10 - year treasury bonds may continue to be better than that of 30 - year treasury bonds [2][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Important Matters - On January 15, 2026, the central bank conducted a 900 - billion - yuan 6 - month (181 - day) buy - back reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan. The outstanding scale in January reached 6.8 trillion yuan [5]. - On January 15, 2026, the central bank announced a series of policies, including a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools, and measures to support the private economy, technological innovation, green transformation, and the real estate market [8]. 2. Money Market 2.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Interest Rate Trends - From January 12 to 16, 2026, the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a total investment of 951.5 billion yuan and a maturity of 138.7 billion yuan, resulting in a net investment of 812.8 billion yuan. From January 19 to 23, it is expected that 1.1015 trillion yuan of base money will mature and be withdrawn [11]. - In mid - January, the money market tightened first and then loosened. The central bank maintained its stance of protecting liquidity. The DR001 remained in the range of 1.3% - 1.4% throughout the week [13]. 2.2 Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, last week, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 553.58 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 254.88 billion yuan. The city commercial banks had the largest issuance scale and a net financing of 65.36 billion yuan [17][23]. - The issuance interest rates of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased compared with the previous week. In the secondary market, the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased overall last week [25][28]. 3. Bond Market Primary Market - At the beginning of 2026, the issuance rhythm of treasury bonds accelerated compared with the same period in 2025, mainly due to the increase in the issuance of discounted treasury bonds and short - term treasury bonds. As of January 16, the cumulative net financing scale of various treasury bonds was about 0.2 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 0.19 trillion yuan [31]. - The supply scale of interest - rate bonds decreased last week. The net financing of treasury bonds was - 299.21 billion yuan, local bonds was 73.717 billion yuan, and policy - bank financial bonds was 51.1 billion yuan [38]. - As of last week, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds reached 0.05 trillion yuan, mainly with long - term and ultra - long - term maturities [41]. Secondary Market - Last week, large - scale banks bought a large amount of treasury bonds within 10 years, supporting medium - and short - term interest rates. The overall performance of treasury bonds within 10 years was excellent. The yields of 30 - year treasury bonds increased [44]. - The average daily turnover rate of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond (250016) decreased, while that of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond (250215) increased [48]. - The average spread between the 10 - year treasury bond active bond (250016) and the secondary active bond (250022) was 1.61BP, indicating a possible change in liquidity premium [51]. - The 10 - 1 - year and 30 - 1 - year treasury bond term spreads widened. The long - term and ultra - long - term local - treasury bond spreads narrowed [58][62]. 4. Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the scale of leveraged trading increased as the money market eased, with an average of about 8.62 trillion yuan [65]. - In the cash bond market, large - scale banks increased their holdings of 5 - 10 - year treasury bonds, small - and medium - sized banks reduced their holdings of 5 - 10 - year treasury bonds, insurance companies bought long - term treasury bonds and local bonds, securities firms sold long - term treasury bonds, and funds increased their holdings of policy - bank financial bonds within 5 years [65][72]. - The leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, and other institutions decreased in November 2025 [66]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar and cathode copper futures increased, while those of wire rod futures, cement price index, and South China Glass Index decreased. The CCFI index increased, and the BDI index decreased [87]. - The wholesale prices of pork increased, and those of vegetables decreased. The settlement prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures increased. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.01 [87]. 6. Market Outlook - In Q1 2026, short - term interest rates are expected to maintain their advantage, and the trading logic of long - term interest rates may be further deepened. The performance of 10 - year treasury bonds may continue to be better than that of 30 - year treasury bonds [2][89]. - Investors can consider gradually building positions in ultra - long - term bonds. Initially, they should hold medium - and short - term treasury bonds and policy - bank financial bonds, and then adjust the strategy according to market conditions [90][91].