化工行业2026年投资策略 周期破晓，材料乘风 西南证券研究院 化工研究团队 2026年2月 核心观点 顺周期化工品中，重点关注资源属性的化工品以及具有黑马属性的地产链化工品。 1 全球视角来看，化工行业已经处于新一轮景气周期的起点。我国化工企业在过去几年从做大到做强，具备 了更为坚实的利润基础和更为可观的利润弹性。产能端，2022-2025年为我国化工产能的资本开支扩张周 期，进入2026年，海外化工产能加速退出，我国化工产能投放明显放缓，低效产能持续退出，供给端进入 收缩阶段。需求端，我们重点关注中美两大经济体，2025年美国经济展现出超预期韧性，我国经济同样交 出亮丽答卷，国内生产总值超过140万亿元新台阶，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.0％。展望2026年，美国 进入降息通道，经济出现衰退的风险较小，而我国2026年重点经济工作中将提振内需放在任务首位，政策 工具充足，所以我们认为2026年化工行业的供需改善有望超预期。 原材料角度，化工上游原油、天然气、煤炭等能源品种的下行空间已经有限。目前原油供需宽松的基本面 和地缘冲突带来的短期供应波动在交织影响原油价格，根据美国能源信息署预测，2026和2027 ...

通信行业2026年投资策略 商业航天建设期主线确立，AI算力提供景气强化 西南证券研究院 通信研究团队 2026年2月 核心观点 1 商业航天正式迈入建设期，通信行业开启"星座级 Capex"新周期，是 2026 年最具确定性的核心主线。商业航天已从前期技术验证与主 题探索阶段，进入以规模化星座部署为核心的建设期。在国家战略高度持续提升、"十五五"规划明确指引的背景下，低轨卫星作为 6G"空天地一体化"网络的关键基础设施，其发展具备明显的政策刚性。同时，低轨轨道与频谱资源高度稀缺且不可再生，全球可用容量 有限，中国在发射与规划层面持续推进，行业具备"必须做、且要抢时间"的战略特征。由此，商业航天投资逻辑由主题驱动，明确切换至 以网络建设为核心的 Capex 周期。 商业航天建设期的产业逻辑，应聚焦"能否更快、更便宜、更频繁发星"的三大关键节点。从产业推进路径看，建设期的核心不在概念扩展， 而在约束条件的逐步解除：一是火箭能力，以可回收技术推动发射成本持续下降，并通过运载吨数提升提高单次发射效率，是星座规模化部 署的前提；二是发射基地与发射场配套，商用发射场投入使用后，发射频次显著提升，地面系统与配套设施成为支 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [2]. Core Insights - The overall revenue of the four major overseas technology companies reached $468.4 billion in Q4 2025, with a year-over-year growth of 16%, maintaining a high growth rate [4][10]. - The combined net profit for these companies was $116.9 billion, with an overall net profit margin of approximately 25%, although net profit margins have shown significant fluctuations in recent quarters due to one-time income and expense factors [4][13]. - Capital expenditures for 2025 are projected to grow significantly, with a year-over-year increase of 67%, surpassing market expectations [4][10]. - Cloud business revenue growth is showing slight differentiation among major players, with total cloud revenue reaching $86.1 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 30% [4][10]. - The digital advertising sector is benefiting from AI advancements, with total advertising revenue for the four companies amounting to $165.6 billion in Q4 2025, a year-over-year increase of 18% [4][10]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The revenue performance is robust, while profit margins have been volatile. The four major companies reported a total revenue of $468.4 billion in Q4 2025, with a year-over-year growth of 16% [4][10]. - The net profit for Q4 2025 was $116.9 billion, with a net profit margin of about 25%, indicating fluctuations primarily due to one-time income and expenses [4][13]. Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditures for 2025 are expected to accelerate, with a total spending of $410 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 67% [4][10]. - For 2026, guidance from major companies indicates significant increases, with Google projecting $175-185 billion, Amazon around $200 billion, and Meta between $115-135 billion, all exceeding market expectations [4][10]. Cloud Computing - Cloud revenue growth is showing varied trends among major providers, with total cloud revenue of $86.1 billion in Q4 2025, a year-over-year increase of 30% [4][10]. - Profit margins for cloud services are expected to remain volatile due to ongoing investments in AI and operational efficiencies [4][10]. Digital Advertising - The digital advertising sector is experiencing strong performance, with total advertising revenue of $165.6 billion in Q4 2025, a year-over-year increase of 18% [4][10]. - AI technologies are enhancing advertising platforms, leading to improved performance across the board [4][10]. Related Companies - Key companies mentioned include Microsoft (MSFT.O), Google (GOOGL.O), Amazon (AMZN.O), and Meta (META.O) [4].

疆煤外运领军企业，轻装上阵未来可期 买入 （首次） 当前价：6.75 元 [Table_StockInfo] 2026 年 02 月 10 日 证券研究报告•公司研究报告 广汇物流（600603）交通运输 目标价：8.40 元（6 个月） 风险提示：行业政策风险，业务经营风险，其他铁路线路竞争的风险等。 | [Table_MainProfit] 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 3737.11 | 3526.63 | 4053.29 | 4894.90 | | 增长率 | -24.23% | -5.63% | 14.93% | 20.76% | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | 508.90 | 411.37 | 720.56 | 1094.35 | | 增长率 | -12.76% | -19.16% | 75.16% | 51.87% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 0.43 | 0.34 | 0.60 | 0.92 | | 净资产收益率 ROE | 7.07% | ...

超级周期中的北美存储巨头，AI 驱动史诗级涨价行情 [Table_StockInfo] 2026 年 02 月 10 日 证券研究报告•公司研究报告 美 光（MU.O）半导体 目标价：493.20 美元 买入 （首次） 当前价：383.50 美元 | 指标/年度 | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元美元) | 25111.00 | 37378.00 | 74828.27 | 92740.71 | 96842.27 | | 增长率 | 61.59% | 48.85% | 100.19% | 23.94% | 4.42% | | GAAP净利润(百万元美元) | 778.00 | 8539.00 | 35035.61 | 46256.79 | 49859.48 | | 增长率 | 113.34% | 997.56% | 310.30% | 32.03% | 7.79% | | Non-GAAP净利润(百万元美元) | 1472.00 | 9470.00 ...

2026[Table_In 年 027月ustryInfo] 08 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•医药生物 医药行业创新药周报（2.2-2.8） 2026 年 2 月第一周创新药周报 A 股和港股创新药板块及 XBI 指数本周走势 西南证券研究院 2026[Table_Summary] 年 2月第一周，陆港两地创新药板块共计 56个股上涨，88个股下跌。其中 涨幅前三为中国抗体-B（+22.79%）、亿腾嘉和（+14.00%）、诺诚健华（12.24%）。 跌幅前三为药捷安康-B（-14.58%）、双鹭药业（-13.95%）、新诺威（-12.53%）。 本周 A 股创新药板块下跌 1.32%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.02pp，生物医药上涨 0.04%。近 6 个月 A 股创新药累计下跌 8.45%，跑输沪深 300 指数 21.31pp， 生物医药累计下跌 5.74%。 本周港股创新药板块下跌 1.45%，跑赢恒生指数 1.57pp，恒生医疗保健下跌 1.41%。近 6个月港股创新药累计下跌 6.80%，跑输恒生指数 12.69pp，恒生医疗 保健累计下跌 6.28%。 本周 XBI 指数上 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes embracing technology and focusing on the new economy within the machinery industry, highlighting significant investment opportunities in various sectors [1][3]. Human-Robot Sector - The humanoid robot industry is seen as a monumental opportunity driven by global technological iterations and domestic policy support, with a breakthrough expected in 2025 and initial stages of scaling in 2026 [5]. - Key components for humanoid robots include actuators, screws, reducers, sensors, motors, and lightweight structural parts, with a focus on core suppliers and technological iterations [35][36]. Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by the urgent demand for low-orbit resources and satellite constellation networks, with significant contributions from both domestic policies and technological advancements [5][41]. - China is advancing national-level satellite constellation plans, aiming to deploy thousands of satellites in the coming decade [42]. Gas Turbine Industry - The demand for electricity is surging, particularly due to the growth of data centers, leading to a supply shortage of gas turbines. Major manufacturers are expanding their production capacity to meet this demand [5][58]. - The global gas turbine market is expected to see a significant increase in sales, with orders projected to rise from 58GW in 2024 to 71GW in 2025 [68]. Controlled Nuclear Fusion - The controlled nuclear fusion sector is on the brink of commercialization, with global investments in the industry skyrocketing from $1.9 billion in 2021 to $9.7 billion in 2025, indicating a strong growth trajectory [75][83]. - The global nuclear fusion market is anticipated to reach $496.5 billion by 2030 and exceed $1 trillion by 2050, marking a critical period for investment [83]. General Equipment - The general equipment sector is expected to benefit from structural growth in downstream technology fields, despite current demand remaining subdued [5][10]. - The domestic industrial mother machine supply chain is anticipated to undergo significant localization efforts [5]. Low-altitude Economy - The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights the development of the low-altitude economy, with supportive policies and pilot cities paving the way for accelerated growth in this sector [5][10]. Deep Sea Technology - The deep-sea technology sector is identified as a crucial driver for the marine economy, with government reports emphasizing the need for high-quality development in this area [5]. Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is optimistic about both domestic replacement demand and growth in overseas markets, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The proportion of driver gene-negative non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients is approximately 31% in both China and the United States, indicating a significant market opportunity for treatments targeting this demographic [2][15] - The estimated market size for immune drugs used in first-line treatment of driver gene-negative NSCLC is projected to be around 7.5 billion CNY (approximately 1.1 billion USD) in China and 18 billion CNY (approximately 2.7 billion USD) in the United States by 2030 [2] - The current first-line treatment for advanced driver gene-negative NSCLC primarily relies on PD(L)-1 inhibitors combined with chemotherapy, but there are limitations in long-term efficacy and options for patients intolerant to chemotherapy [3] Summary by Sections Section 1: NSCLC Global Overview - Lung cancer is the leading cancer type globally, with new cases accounting for approximately 12% of all cancer cases in 2022, translating to about 2.5 million new lung cancer cases [10] - In China, lung cancer represents about 22% of new cancer cases, with approximately 1.06 million new cases in 2022 [10] Section 2: Market Potential for Driver Gene-Negative NSCLC - The report highlights the significant market potential for immune therapies in treating driver gene-negative NSCLC, with a focus on the limitations of current treatment options [2][3] Section 3: Next-Generation Immunotherapy Approaches - The report discusses the advancements in dual (multi) antibody therapies and immune-oncology (IO) combined with antibody-drug conjugates (ADC), emphasizing their potential to improve treatment outcomes for patients with driver gene-negative NSCLC [5][8] - The clinical data supporting these new therapies is expected to catalyze further investment and development in this area [5] Section 4: Treatment Guidelines Comparison - The report compares treatment guidelines for driver gene-negative NSCLC between the United States and China, noting differences in treatment stratification and recommended therapies [32][34] - The U.S. guidelines emphasize PD-L1 expression levels, while Chinese guidelines focus more on performance status (PS) [32][34] Section 5: Future Catalysts - Key upcoming clinical data releases and studies are highlighted as potential catalysts for investment opportunities in the sector, particularly regarding dual antibodies and ADC therapies [5][8]

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2026 年 02 月 08 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•机械设备 机器人行业周报（0202-0208） 智元机器人举办《机器人奇妙夜》， 北京人形完成首轮超 7 亿元融资 投资要点 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：邰桂龙 执业证号：S1250521050002 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：tgl@swsc.com.cn 分析师：周鑫雨 执业证号：S1250523070008 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：zxyu@swsc.com.cn 分析师：杨云杰 执业证号：S1250525100001 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：yyjie@swsc.com.cn [Table_QuotePic] 行业相对指数表现 -9% 2% 14% 25% 37% 48% 25/2 25/4 25/6 25/8 25/10 25/12 26/2 机械设备 沪深300 数据来源：聚源数据 | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | Table_BaseData] [股票家数 | 443 | | 行业总市值（亿元） ...

[Table_Report 2026 年 02 月 09 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券市场跟踪周报（2.2-2.6） 超长债利率下行推动利率进一步修复 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 S 上周中长债继续呈现出修复态势，核心驱动可能源于超长债利率下行带来的情 绪回暖。上周资金面在跨月后转松，但短端利率或因前期已定价降息预期，未 随资金面转松进一步下行，1 年期国债估值收益率不降反升，周五收于 1.3207%，较周一的 1.3076%上行约 1.3BP。与此形成对比的是，长债及超长 债表现明显更优，带动收益率曲线进一步平坦化。不过，长端利率行情走势也 呈现明显的阶段性特征：2月 3日央行公布公开市场国债买卖规模为 1000亿 元后，市场一度表现为"利好兑现"走势，10年期与 30年期国债在次日小幅 上行；然而，随后两个交易日，30 年期国债估值收益率分别下行 1.2BP 和 2.0BP，在超长债的带动下，中长端利率整体下行，10 年期国债活跃券 （250016）在盘中多次触及 1.8%的关键心理关口，但突破阻力明显，该位置 或存在较强技术压力。从下行时点看，本轮超长债行情并非直接由政策或流动 ...