[Table_Report 2025 年 12 月 22 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券市场跟踪周报（12.15-12.19） ALM 监管更新，险企行为将如何变化？ 2026年，随着保险配置策略更加注重"收益覆盖率"，投资端或将整体呈现出 "固守地方债底仓、国债需求结构性分化、二永债配置意愿触底回升"的格局。 2026 年，保险公司对于具体券种的选择逻辑上或将呈现出结构性分化：地方 债方面，供给和期限的匹配仍是保险重点配置资产。2024 年以来置换隐债专 项债和新增专项债额度的提升逐渐弥补了长期限安全资产的供给缺口，并且 2025 年置换隐债专项债发行期限在 10年及以上的规模占比高达 88.63%，与 人身险公司负债资金的期限特征天然匹配。从静态收益率来看，地方债相对同 期限国债具有稳定的溢价优势，并且所占用的实际资本相同，因此地方债始终 将是险资最为理想的配置底仓。国债方面，超长期国债的配置吸引力正在经历 边际减弱的过程。首先，超长期国债参与资金的交易属性仍然存在，虽然经过 监管 2025年的全年纠偏，市场一致性做多预期明显缓解，但由于机构投资收 益考核目标仍然较高并且债券市场具有更加丰富的衍 ...

[Table_Author] 分析师：杨杰峰 执业证号：S1250523060001 电话：18190773632 邮箱：yangjf@swsc.com.cn 分析师：叶昱宏 执业证号：S1250525070010 电话：18223492691 联系人：李茂怡 电话：15528164673 邮箱：limaoyi@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 [Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 12 月 22 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券 ETF 周度跟踪（12.15-12.19） 科创债 ETF 获资金集中流入 摘要 西南证券研究院 S 各类债券 ETF资金净流入情况：债市多日反弹，债券 ETF净流入规模显著增 长。上周利率债类 ETF、信用债类 ETF、可转债类 ETF净流入资金分别+29.37 亿元、+145.69亿元、-17.30亿元，债券 ETF市场合计净流入金额 157.76亿 元。上周债市市场整体呈现回暖迹象，债券 ETF 同步走强，全周净流入规模 较前一周大幅增长 264.3%，增量主要来自信用债类 ETF产品。展望年末，债 券 ETF 有望与底层 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the commercial aerospace sector, particularly highlighting the potential of private rocket companies and their impact on satellite networking in China [4][7]. Core Insights - The global satellite frequency and orbit resources are limited, with the US leading in the number of satellites in orbit. China is advancing two large-scale internet satellite constellation projects, aiming for a total of approximately 28,000 satellites [4][43]. - In 2024, a total of 263 space launch missions were executed globally, marking an 18% increase from 2023. The US and China accounted for 86% of these launches, with the US conducting 158 missions and China 68 missions [19][24]. - The commercial aerospace market in China is characterized by a dual development model of "national teams and private teams," with private rocket companies expected to enhance launch capacity and reduce costs significantly [4][45]. Summary by Sections Global Launch Activity - In 2024, 263 space launches were conducted globally, with 258 successful missions. The US accounted for 60% of the launches, while China completed 68 launches, representing 26% of the total [19][24][26]. - SpaceX dominated the commercial launch market, executing 117 missions, which is 67% of the global commercial launch count [24][25]. Satellite Constellation Plans - The US has established significant satellite constellation plans, including SpaceX's Starlink with approximately 42,000 satellites and Amazon's Project Kuiper with over 3,200 satellites. China is also advancing its GW constellation and G60 constellation projects [34][36]. Cost Reduction and Technological Advancements - The cost of satellite launches in China has decreased from approximately 115,000 RMB per kilogram in 2020 to about 75,000 RMB per kilogram in 2024, with expectations of further reductions as reusable rocket technology matures [49][51]. - The successful first flight of several private rockets, such as the Zhuque-3, indicates a growing capacity in the commercial launch sector, which is crucial for meeting the demands of satellite constellation deployments [4][51]. Policy Support and Market Dynamics - Recent government policies have elevated commercial aerospace to a national strategic priority, encouraging private investment and innovation in the sector [48][49]. - The report emphasizes the importance of ongoing policy support to address key challenges in the commercial aerospace industry, particularly in enhancing launch capabilities and fostering technological advancements [4][58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the traditional "stock-bond seesaw" effect failed again, with both the stock and bond markets rising and falling together. Long-term interest rates fluctuated sharply between the "reality of loose money" and the "frustration of strong expectations," and the oversold of ultra-long-duration assets reflected the crowding of market funds and the fragility of market sentiment [3][91]. - In the last four trading weeks of the year, the fact that the "sales new rules" have not fully "landed" remains the main market concern, but the approaching important meetings have restored the "loose money" expectation. The focus of market gaming may still be the emotional fluctuations caused by marginal policy changes [3][92]. - The report maintains the judgment of a recovery market in December but expects the downward space of interest rates to be relatively limited. It is recommended to adopt a left-side layout configuration rhythm, prioritize switching positions to medium - and short - term treasury bonds and policy financial bonds, and pay attention to trading opportunities of secondary perpetual bonds of the same term. As the meeting window approaches, gradually increase the offensive nature of the portfolio, control the overall duration center of the portfolio within the medium - to long - term range of 5 - 7 years, and avoid high - congestion assets [3][92][93]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Important Matters - On December 5, 2025, the central bank will conduct a 1000 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) fixed - quantity, interest - rate - tendered, multi - price - winning bidder - selected买断式逆回购 operation. The net investment of the central bank in treasury bonds in November was 5 billion yuan, far lower than the market's relatively optimistic expectation of 100 billion yuan. On December 5, 2025, six major banks stopped selling 5 - year large - denomination certificate of deposit products [6][9]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Interest Rate Trends - From December 1 to 5, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation had a net investment of - 84.8 billion yuan. It is expected that the basic currency will have a maturity withdrawal of 66.38 billion yuan from December 8 to 12, 2025. At the beginning of the month, the fund market was generally loose, and DR001 fell below 1.3% for the first time this year [14][15]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit last week was 495.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 63.54 billion yuan from the previous week. The net financing scale was 47.1 billion yuan, an increase of 289.69 billion yuan from the previous week. The issuance interest rates of inter - bank certificates of deposit generally increased last week. In the secondary market, the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit generally increased last week [25][31][34]. 3.3 Bond Market - In the primary market, the supply scale of interest - rate bonds decreased last week, with an actual issuance of 430.717 billion yuan and a net financing of 128.844 billion yuan. As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative net financing scale of various treasury bonds in 2025 was about 6.23 trillion yuan, and that of various local bonds was about 7.11 trillion yuan, showing a significant increase compared with the average values from 2021 to 2024. As of last week, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds in 2025 had reached 2.29 trillion yuan, mainly with long - term and ultra - long - term maturities [38][44][48]. - In the secondary market, at the beginning of the month, the short - term interest rates were stable, while the ultra - long - term interest rates continued to be affected by market noise and increased significantly. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds changed by - 0.01BP, - 1.46BP, 1.39BP, 0.17BP, 0.68BP, and 7.20BP respectively. The 10Y - 1Y treasury bond yield spread increased from 43.95BP to 44.64BP. The yields of the same - term CDB bonds also changed, and the 10Y - 1Y CDB bond yield spread increased from 34.94BP to 37.66BP. The implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds increased slightly [51]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the leveraged trading scale was generally stable due to the relatively loose fund market. In the cash bond market, state - owned banks significantly increased their holdings of treasury bonds within 5 years and local bonds within 10 years; rural commercial banks mainly increased their holdings of 5 - 10 - year policy financial bonds and treasury bonds over 5 years; insurance companies continued to prefer local bonds over 10 years; securities firms and funds were the main sellers last week [68][73]. - In October 2025, the leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market was about 118.77%, an increase of about 0.06 percentage points from September. The leverage ratios of commercial banks, securities companies, and other institutions in the inter - bank market in October 2025 were about 110.31%, 191.29%, and 132.17% respectively [68]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures increased by 2.47% week - on - week, the settlement price of wire rod futures remained flat, the settlement price of cathode copper futures increased by 5.02% week - on - week, the cement price index decreased by 0.40% week - on - week, and the South China Glass Index decreased by 4.70% week - on - week. The CCFI index decreased by 0.62% week - on - week, and the BDI index increased by 9.92% week - on - week. In terms of food prices, the wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.84% week - on - week, and the wholesale price of vegetables increased by 3.31% week - on - week. The settlement prices of Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures increased by 0.09% and 1.91% respectively week - on - week. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.07 last week [88]. 3.6 Market Outlook - The report maintains the judgment of a recovery market in December but expects the downward space of interest rates to be relatively limited. It is recommended to adopt a left - side layout configuration rhythm, prioritize switching positions to medium - and short - term treasury bonds and policy financial bonds, and pay attention to trading opportunities of secondary perpetual bonds of the same term. As the meeting window approaches, gradually increase the offensive nature of the portfolio, control the overall duration center of the portfolio within the medium - to long - term range of 5 - 7 years, and avoid high - congestion assets [3][92][93].

Economic Growth Projections - The economic growth target for 2026 is set at around 5%, with an expected actual growth rate of approximately 4.9%[3] - Nominal GDP growth is projected to rise to about 4.2%[3] - Manufacturing investment growth is anticipated to reach around 5.2%, driven by high-end and intelligent upgrades[3] Investment and Infrastructure - Broad infrastructure investment growth is expected to be around 6%, supported by major projects under the "14th Five-Year Plan"[3] - Real estate investment decline is projected to narrow to approximately -10% due to improved supply-demand dynamics[3] Consumption and Prices - Consumer spending is expected to increase, with retail sales growth projected at around 5%[3] - CPI is forecasted to recover moderately to 0.5%, while PPI is expected to remain between -1% and 0%[3] Policy and Fiscal Measures - The budget deficit ratio may exceed 4%, with new special bond limits around 4.5 trillion yuan[3] - Monetary policy is expected to remain "moderately loose," with potential small rate cuts of about 25 basis points and interest rate reductions of approximately 10 basis points[3] Global Economic Context - The U.S. job market is cooling, and inflation pressures are manageable, but uncertainties remain regarding future interest rate paths[3] - Emerging markets may see marginal economic slowdown in 2026, with internal performance continuing to diverge[3] Asset Allocation Strategies - Overweight positions are recommended in U.S. equities and gold, benefiting from liquidity easing and fiscal expansion[3] - Underweight positions in oil are suggested due to high inventory levels and weak demand[3] Risks - Risks include lower-than-expected domestic economic growth, geopolitical tensions, and potential overseas recession exceeding expectations[3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - If the new public offering sales regulations are implemented as per the draft for soliciting opinions, the cost - effectiveness of using traditional bond funds as liquidity management tools for institutional investors, especially wealth management products and bank proprietary trading, will be significantly weakened. Bond ETFs, outside the scope of the new fee reform and with advantages such as good liquidity and low trading costs, may become high - quality alternative tools for institutional liquidity management. The "new regulations" may drive institutional funds to migrate to credit - bond ETFs, bringing expansion opportunities for such products [2][5]. - The bond ETF market's scale slightly increased last week, with the increment mainly coming from credit - bond ETFs. As interest rates rise to a high - value level and institutional funds gradually enter the market, the bond market is expected to stop falling and rebound, which may drive the recovery of the bond ETF market. Additionally, with the upcoming implementation of the new public offering sales regulations and the bond market entering a volatile period, the potential value of bond ETFs as liquidity management and tactical allocation tools is expected to be re - evaluated by the market [2][45]. Summary by Directory 1. Sales New Regulations Impact: Credit - Bond ETF Incremental Funds Calculation - **Potential Scale of Migratable Funds**: - Approximate the scale of short - term pure - bond and passive index - type bond funds as the scale of bond funds held by wealth management products and bank proprietary trading for liquidity management. The combined proportion of short - term pure - bond and passive index - type bond funds under the heavy - position caliber of wealth management products and the affiliated - party holding caliber of bank proprietary trading is 28.9% and 10.1% respectively [9]. - Determine the proportion of credit - type bond funds in the short - term pure - bond and passive index - type bond funds held by wealth management and bank proprietary trading. The proportion of credit - type bond funds in short - term pure - bond and passive index - type bond funds under the heavy - position caliber of wealth management and the affiliated - party caliber of bank proprietary trading is 62.8% and 16.8% respectively, accounting for 18.1% and 1.7% of the total bond - fund scale held by each [11]. - Calculate the full - scale bond - fund scale held by wealth management products and bank proprietary trading. The estimated bond - fund holding scale of wealth management products and bank proprietary trading is 8496 billion yuan and 6927.1 billion yuan respectively. Based on this, the potential scale of migratable funds in the bond - type fund positions of wealth management products and bank proprietary trading under the full - scale is 1540.1 billion yuan and 1181.5 billion yuan respectively [21][22]. - **Actual Migrated Funds Calculation**: - Follow the "duration matching" principle. Part of the funds in the (0, 1], (1, 2], (2, 3], and (3, 4] duration intervals of credit - type short - term pure - bond and passive index - type bond funds held by wealth management products and bank proprietary trading will be transferred to credit - bond ETF products with similar duration intervals after the new regulations are implemented. - Set three scenarios: optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic, corresponding to 10%, 20%, and 50% of the fund migration ratio respectively. The incremental funds obtained by credit - bond ETFs in the optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenarios are 234.0 billion yuan, 467.9 billion yuan, and 1169.9 billion yuan respectively, with year - on - year increases of 4.7%, 9.3%, and 23.3% [33]. - **Market Capacity**: Even in the pessimistic scenario with the highest migration ratio, the incremental funds in each duration interval only account for 2.2%, 0.9%, 1.1%, and 0.4% of the corresponding index capacity. Existing credit - bond ETFs can absorb the potential fund migration caused by the new regulations without substantial constraints [42]. 2. Weekly Situation of Bond ETFs - **Fund Inflows of Various Bond ETFs**: - Last week, the net inflows of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were +0.15 billion yuan, +25.42 billion yuan, and - 3.69 billion yuan respectively. The total net inflow of the bond ETF market was 21.89 billion yuan. The scale increment mainly came from credit - bond ETFs [45]. - Among them, science - innovation bond ETFs had the largest net inflow, with a net inflow of 31.59 billion yuan, followed by corporate - bond ETFs (+8.62 billion yuan) and local - bond ETFs (+3.27 billion yuan). The benchmark market - making credit - bond ETF had the largest net outflow, with a net outflow of 13.45 billion yuan [46]. - **Share Trends of Various Bond ETFs**: As of December 5, 2025, the share inflows were concentrated in credit - bond ETFs. The shares of treasury - bond, policy - financial - bond, local - bond, credit - bond, and convertible - bond ETFs were 732.23 million shares, 434.03 million shares, 134.61 million shares, 7415.46 million shares, and 5010.55 million shares respectively, with changes of - 0.31%, - 0.36%, 2.18%, 0.34%, and - 0.55% respectively compared to November 28, 2025 [60]. - **Share and Net Value Trends of Major Bond ETFs**: - The shares of convertible - bond ETFs and 30 - year treasury - bond ETFs significantly outflowed. As of December 5, 2025, compared to November 28, 2025, the share changes of 30 - year treasury - bond ETFs, policy - financial - bond ETFs, 5 - year local - bond ETFs, urban - investment - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were - 7.06 million shares, - 1.93 million shares, 0.15 million shares, no change, and - 26.20 million shares respectively [63]. - The net values of all major bond ETFs declined, with the 30 - year treasury - bond ETF showing a significant decline. As of December 5, 2025, compared to November 28, 2025, the net - value changes of 30 - year treasury - bond ETFs, policy - financial - bond ETFs, 5 - year local - bond ETFs, urban - investment - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were - 1.82%, - 0.30%, - 0.15%, - 0.05%, and 0.07% respectively [67]. - **Share and Net Value Trends of Benchmark Market - Making Credit - Bond ETFs**: - The shares of benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs slightly outflowed. As of December 5, 2025, compared to November 28, 2025, the share changes of 8 existing benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs were mostly negative [70]. - The net values of benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs continued to decline. As of December 5, 2025, compared to November 28, 2025, the net - value changes of these 8 ETFs were all negative [71]. - **Share and Net Value Trends of Science - Innovation Bond ETFs**: - The share inflow of the science - innovation bond ETF嘉实 was the largest. Among the 24 existing science - innovation bond ETFs, the total share inflow last week was 31.62 million shares, with a 1.24% increase compared to the previous week [76]. - The net - value decline of science - innovation bond ETFs accelerated. As of December 5, 2025, the average net values of the first - batch and second - batch science - innovation bond ETFs decreased by 0.11% and 0.10% respectively compared to the previous week's closing [75]. - **Market Performance of Single Bond ETFs**: - Constrained by the weak bond - market situation, the net values of bond ETF products generally declined. The 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, 30 - year treasury - bond ETF博时, and benchmark treasury - bond ETF led the decline, with decreases of - 1.94%, - 1.83%, and - 0.48% respectively [78]. - In terms of the premium - discount rate, the benchmark treasury - bond ETF, 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, and 5 - year local - bond ETF had higher premium rates, while the benchmark market - making credit - bond and science - innovation bond ETFs generally had higher discount rates [78]. - In terms of scale changes, the science - innovation bond ETF嘉实 (+31.15 billion yuan), corporate - bond ETF (+8.62 billion yuan), and science - innovation bond ETF景顺 (+7.95 billion yuan) had the largest net inflows, while the 30 - year treasury - bond ETF博时, 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, and credit - bond ETF had the largest net outflows [78].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a slight decrease in the overall investment rating for the pharmaceutical sector, with public fund holdings at 9.67%, down by 0.21 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][9]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector's market capitalization accounted for 7.83% of the total market, reflecting an increase of 1.52 percentage points [2][9]. - The top five holdings by public funds include 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine) with 745 funds, 药明康德 (WuXi AppTec) with 608 funds, 信达生物 (Innovent Biologics) with 297 funds, 迈瑞医疗 (Mindray) with 249 funds, and 三生制药 (3SBio) with 206 funds [2][9]. - The report highlights a significant increase in foreign investment, with a total market value of 1839.40 billion yuan, up by 229.2 billion yuan from the beginning of the period [6][10]. Summary by Sections Public Fund Holdings - The total public fund holdings in the pharmaceutical sector decreased to 9.67%, with a notable drop in active pharmaceutical fund holdings to 6.74% [2][9]. - The market capitalization of the pharmaceutical sector increased to 76270.93 billion yuan [13]. Sector Performance - The top sectors by public fund holdings include chemical preparations at 28.75%, other biological products at 14.27%, and medical research outsourcing at 9.16% [19][20]. - The report notes a significant increase in the holdings of other biological products, which rose by 3.43 percentage points [3][15]. Foreign Investment - Foreign investment in the pharmaceutical sector has shown a notable increase, with the total market value held by foreign investors rising to 1839.40 billion yuan [10][6]. - The report indicates that the foreign shareholding in the pharmaceutical sector is 2.41%, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.02 percentage points [10]. Top Holdings and Changes - The top five companies by total market value held by public funds are 药明康德 (461 billion yuan), 恒瑞医药 (427 billion yuan), 信达生物 (217 billion yuan), 迈瑞医疗 (199 billion yuan), and 康方生物 (135 billion yuan) [2][8]. - The report highlights significant increases in holdings for 药明康德 (+209.4 billion yuan) and 恒瑞医药 (+110.3 billion yuan) [2][8].

Domestic Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) released a list of industry scopes for infrastructure REITs, indicating a more diversified asset base and aiming to enhance the REITs market structure[1] - The NDRC and four other departments issued opinions to address the structural mismatch between digital talent supply and industry demand, highlighting a talent gap of over 32 million in the digital economy[10] - The State Council emphasized the role of new urbanization in driving high-quality economic development, targeting an urbanization rate of nearly 70% by 2028, up from 67% at the end of 2024[15] International Developments - The Bank of Japan hinted at a potential interest rate hike in December, with the 20-year Japanese government bond yield rising to 2.88%, the highest since June 1999[16] - The U.S. ADP employment report showed a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in November, the largest drop since March 2023, indicating increasing pressure on the U.S. job market[20] - The European Union proposed a 70% local content requirement for key products, aiming to reduce external dependencies and bolster local manufacturing[22] Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices increased by 0.69% week-on-week, while iron ore and copper prices rose by 0.48% and 3.15%, respectively[24] - Real estate sales in major cities fell by 24.29% week-on-week, with first-tier cities down 25.61% and second-tier cities down 30.47%[40] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 2% year-on-year in the last week of November, despite a 7% decline in total retail sales for the month compared to the previous year[40]

Group 1 - The report discusses a significant shift in the pricing paradigm of major assets, characterized by a "K-shaped divergence" where traditional macroeconomic anchors have failed, leading to a decoupling of asset prices from economic fundamentals [4][10][37] - The report quantifies the extent of K-shaped divergence, revealing that the S&P 500 has deviated by approximately 141% from employment data, while gold has shown an extreme deviation of over 400%, indicating a fundamental shift from a "monetary-dominated" phase to a "fiscal-dominated" phase [4][20][37] - The analysis highlights the relationship between interest rates, copper, and gold, noting that since 2022, the nominal interest rates have diverged significantly from implied rates derived from copper and gold, with a maximum gap of 660 basis points [4][38][41] Group 2 - The report introduces a unique "gold coordinate system" perspective, suggesting that in this framework, the S&P 500 aligns more closely with employment data, indicating that the stock market has transformed into a "gold-like" asset that hedges against currency depreciation [4][42][46] - The analysis of various asset models shows that the extreme divergence of the S&P 500 and gold reflects a deep-seated fiscal risk premium embedded in asset prices, with a notable 600 basis point gap between actual interest rates and implied equilibrium rates [4][59][54] - The report outlines potential macro paths for the future evolution of K-shaped divergence, including scenarios of moderate recovery, inflationary pressures leading to political shocks, and recessionary pathways, emphasizing the need for vigilance regarding mid-term recession risks [4][61][69]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The bond market was weak last week, leading to a double decline in the net value and share of bond ETFs. The market was affected by negative factors such as the rumored implementation of new public - offering sales regulations and Vanke's request for bond extension. In the short term, if the repair market continues, the bond ETF market is expected to gradually stabilize. Also, if the new regulations are implemented as per the draft, bond ETFs may attract some funds migrating from traditional bond funds [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1.1 Various Bond ETFs' Capital Inflow Situation - Last week, the net inflows of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were +3.09 billion yuan, - 4.50 billion yuan, and - 11.06 billion yuan respectively. The total net inflow of the bond ETF market was - 12.47 billion yuan. As of November 28, 2025, the bond ETF fund scale was 716.624 billion yuan, down 0.30% from the previous week and up 298.63% from the beginning of the year, accounting for 12.60% of the total market ETF scale [2][5]. - Short - term financing ETFs, treasury - bond ETFs, and science - innovation bond ETFs had the top three net inflows last week, while benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs had the largest net outflow of - 24.10 billion yuan [2][6]. 1.2 Various Bond ETFs' Share Trends - As of November 28, 2025, the shares of treasury - bond, policy - financial - bond, local - bond, credit - bond, and convertible - bond ETFs changed by 1.1%, - 1.2%, 1.2%, 0.0%, and - 1.6% respectively compared to November 21, 2025. The total share of bond - type ETFs changed by - 0.5% [18]. 1.3 Main Bond ETFs' Share and Net Value Trends - The shares of convertible - bond ETFs and 30 - year treasury - bond ETFs significantly decreased. As of November 28, 2025, compared to November 21, 2025, the shares of selected main bond ETFs changed by - 20.06 million shares, - 6.18 million shares, 0.15 million shares, 6.70 million shares, and - 113.10 million shares respectively [22]. - Due to the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations, the net values of main bond ETFs all declined. As of November 28, 2025, compared to November 21, 2025, the net values of selected main bond ETFs changed by - 0.66%, - 0.16%, - 0.05%, - 0.06%, and - 0.28% respectively [27]. 1.4 Benchmark Market - Making Credit - Bond ETFs' Share and Net Value Trends - Affected by the panic caused by Vanke's bond extension on November 26, 2025, the 8 existing benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs faced large redemption pressure. As of November 28, 2025, compared to November 21, 2025, the shares of these 8 ETFs changed by - 5.00 million shares, no change, - 7.20 million shares, no change, - 1.00 million shares, 4.20 million shares, - 2.00 million shares, and - 12.90 million shares respectively [29]. - The net values of these 8 ETFs all declined. As of November 28, 2025, compared to November 21, 2025, the net values changed by - 0.15%, - 0.11%, - 0.12%, - 0.13%, - 0.20%, - 0.19%, - 0.20%, and - 0.21% respectively [30]. 1.5 Science - Innovation Bond ETFs' Share and Net Value Trends - The overall share of science - innovation bond ETFs increased slightly last week. The net inflow of shares was 5.71 million shares, a 0.23% increase from the previous week. The top three products in terms of share inflow were Science - Innovation Bond ETF Fuguo, Science - Innovation Bond ETF Dacheng, and Science - Innovation Bond ETF Taikang [35]. - The net values of science - innovation bond ETFs declined overall. The average net values of the first - batch and second - batch science - innovation bond ETFs decreased by 0.17% and 0.16% respectively compared to the previous week [37]. 1.6 Single Bond ETFs' Market Performance - Constrained by the weak bond market, the net values of bond ETFs generally declined. Shanghai - Stock - Exchange Convertible - Bond ETF, 30 - Year Treasury - Bond ETF Boshi, and 30 - Year Treasury - Bond ETF had the largest declines, at - 0.77%, - 0.75%, and - 0.71% respectively [40]. - In terms of premium - discount rates, Benchmark Treasury - Bond ETF, 30 - Year Treasury - Bond ETF Boshi, and 30 - Year Treasury - Bond ETF had the highest premium rates. In terms of scale changes, Benchmark Treasury - Bond ETF, Science - Innovation Bond ETF Dacheng, and Science - Innovation Bond ETF Fuguo had the top three net inflows [40].