[ T able_StockInfo] 2025 年 11 月 11 日 证券研究报告•2025 年三季报点评 桐昆股份（601233）石油石化 目标价：——元（6 个月） 买入 （维持） 当前价：15.77 元 2025 年前三季度业绩稳健，布局绿色差别化纤维项目 风险提示：供给过剩风险；能源价格波动风险；贸易关税风险。 [Table_Author] 分析师：钱伟伦 执业证号：S1250525070005 电话：13122028826 邮箱：qwl@swsc.com.cn 分析师：甄理 执业证号：S1250525050004 电话：021-68413856 邮箱：zhli@swsc.com.cn [Table_QuotePic] 相对指数表现 -22% -12% -3% 6% 15% 25% 24/11 25/1 25/3 25/5 25/7 25/9 25/11 桐昆股份 沪深300 数据来源：聚源数据 | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | [Table_BaseData] 总股本(亿股) | 24.05 | | 流通 A 股(亿股) | 23.96 | | 52 周内股价区间(元) | ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the technology sector, particularly for major cloud service providers and digital advertising companies [2]. Core Insights - The combined revenue of the four major overseas technology companies reached $411.4 billion in Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 16%, the highest growth rate since Q1 2022 [4][12]. - Net profit for these companies totaled $86.6 billion, with an overall net profit margin of approximately 21% [15][17]. - Capital expenditure expectations for 2026 have been significantly raised, with projections indicating a potential doubling of capacity over the next two years [4][6]. - Cloud revenue growth has reached historical highs, with a year-on-year increase of 26% in Q3 2025, reflecting strong demand signals [4][7]. - Digital advertising revenue also exceeded market expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 18% [4][7]. Performance Overview - The four major technology companies reported a combined revenue of $411.4 billion in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16% [12][14]. - Net profit for Q3 2025 was $86.6 billion, with a net profit margin of about 21% [15][17]. - Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta all reported revenues that exceeded market expectations, with specific figures of $77.7 billion, $102.3 billion, $180.2 billion, and $51.2 billion respectively [9][22][27]. Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure guidance has been revised upwards, with Microsoft indicating a growth rate for FY2026 that will exceed FY2025 [4][6]. - Amazon projected a cash capital expenditure of approximately $125 billion for 2025, with expectations for continued increases in 2026 [4][6]. Cloud Computing - The combined cloud revenue of the three major cloud providers reached $79.1 billion in Q3 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 28% for Microsoft, 34% for Google, and 20% for Amazon [4][7]. - Backlog orders for cloud services showed strong demand, with year-on-year growth rates of 51% for Microsoft, 82% for Google, and 22% for Amazon [4][7]. Digital Advertising - The total advertising revenue for the four major companies was $145.7 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 18% [4][7]. - Each company reported growth in advertising revenue, with Microsoft at 15%, Google at 13%, Amazon at 24%, and Meta at 26% [4][7].

[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 11 月 10 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券 ETF 周度跟踪（11.3-11.7） 市场净流入增幅边际收窄 摘要 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：杨杰峰 执业证号：S1250523060001 电话：18190773632 邮箱：yangjf@swsc.com.cn 分析师：叶昱宏 执业证号：S1250525070010 电话：18223492691 邮箱：yeyuh@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 | 1 债券 ETF 周度情况 1 | | --- | | 1.1 各类债券 ETF 资金净流入情况 1 | | 1.2 各类债券 ETF 份额走势 2 | | 1.3 主要债券 ETF 份额及净值走势 3 | | 1.4 基准做市信用债 ETF 份额及净值走势 4 | | 1.5 科创债 ETF 份额及净值走势 5 | | 1.6 单只债券 ETF 市场表现情况 7 | | 2 风险提示 9 | 债券 ETF 周度跟踪（11.3-11.7） 1 债券 ETF 周度情况 1.1 各类债券 ET ...

[Table_Reporto] 2025 年 11 月 10 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券市场跟踪周报（11.3-11.7） 多空因素交织，农商行再入场 核心观点 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：杨杰峰 执业证号：S1250523060001 电话：18190773632 邮箱：yangjf@swsc.com.cn 分析师：叶昱宏 执业证号：S1250525070010 电话：18223492691 邮箱：yeyuh@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 S 近期债券市场在多空因素交织下呈现震荡下行格局。一方面，央行重启公开市 场国债买卖叠加宏观数据边际转弱，强化了政策宽松预期，为债市提供了核心 支撑；另一方面，权益市场走强和"销售新规"临近落地窗口期则对市场情绪 造成了短期扰动。综合来看，我们认为尽管债市短期面临扰动，但年末支撑债 市向好的核心逻辑依然稳固。随着权益压制缓解及市场力量发生结构性变化， 债市情绪有望继续修复，短期波动或是较好的配置机会。 首先，从货币政策来看，10 月公开市场国债买卖操作相对克制。我们在报告 《公开市场国债买卖的 2 ...

行稳致远，品牌突围 [Table_StockInfo] 2025 年 11 月 07 日 证券研究报告•公司深度报告 海尔智家（600690）家用电器 目标价：32.40 元（6 个月） 买入 （维持） 当前价：26.60 元 | 指标/年度 [Table_MainProfit] | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 285981.23 | 308222.91 | 328490.60 | 348466.54 | | 增长率 | 9.39% | 7.78% | 6.58% | 6.08% | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | 18741.12 | 21896.66 | 25331.43 | 28688.64 | | 增长率 | 12.92% | 16.84% | 15.69% | 13.25% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 2.00 | 2.33 | 2.70 | 3.06 | | 净资产收益率 ROE | 16.53% | 16.48% | 16.58% | 16.19% | | ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the brain-computer interface (BCI) industry, driven by technological advancements and market demand, with specific investment recommendations for various segments [5][46]. Core Insights - The brain-computer interface industry is experiencing rapid innovation across different technological paths, including invasive, semi-invasive, and non-invasive methods, each with distinct performance and risk profiles [2][3]. - The global BCI market is projected to reach approximately $2.6 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 13% from 2023 to 2027, while the domestic market in China is expected to reach around 3.2 billion RMB, with a CAGR of approximately 19% from 2024 to 2027 [3][33]. - Non-invasive methods currently dominate the market, accounting for 82% of the total market share due to their safety, ease of use, and diverse application scenarios [41][43]. Summary by Sections Technology Comparison - Invasive BCIs provide the best signal quality but involve significant surgical risks, while non-invasive BCIs are safer and more widely applicable, albeit with lower signal quality [14][15]. - Semi-invasive methods balance signal quality and surgical risk, showing potential for future medical applications [22][26]. Market Dynamics - The BCI industry is characterized by a complex supply chain where upstream components like electrodes and chips are critical for performance, midstream focuses on system integration, and downstream applications are expanding from healthcare to consumer markets [44][45]. - The report highlights the urgent demand for rehabilitation solutions in the medical field, particularly for stroke and disability recovery, which presents a substantial market opportunity [40][41]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government has issued clear policies to support the BCI industry, including the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Innovative Development of the BCI Industry," which outlines development goals for 2027 and 2030 [46][48]. - The establishment of reimbursement policies for BCI projects is expected to alleviate financial barriers and promote industry growth [46][48]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the invasive segment, particularly those innovating in flexible electrodes and specific algorithms, such as JieTi Medical and Brain Tiger Technology [5][6]. - For semi-invasive methods, attention should be given to companies that enhance data reading and patient enrollment, such as BoRuiKang and SanBo Neuroscience [5][6]. - In the non-invasive sector, companies that integrate medical and consumer applications, like QiangNai Technology and WeiSi Medical, are recommended for investment [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has shown signs of improvement with a marginal recovery in Q3, indicating that deep adjustments are beginning to yield results [8] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 760 million yuan, down 36.2% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 10 million yuan, down 117.4% year-on-year [8] - The Q3 revenue reached 200 million yuan, reflecting a 0.8% year-on-year increase, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 20 million yuan, showing a significant narrowing of losses [8] - The company is focusing on channel innovation and strengthening sales, with a new product launched in collaboration with a retail partner gaining consumer recognition [8] - The company is maintaining rigid expenditure on marketing and promotion despite weak market demand, aiming to boost sales and improve cash flow [8] Financial Summary - Projected revenue for 2024 is 14.23 billion yuan, with a significant decline of 49.7% year-on-year, followed by expected revenues of 10.32 billion yuan in 2025 and 10.66 billion yuan in 2026 [3][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 0.12 billion yuan in 2024, decreasing to 0.07 billion yuan in 2025, before recovering to 0.32 billion yuan in 2026 and 0.52 billion yuan in 2027 [3][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.04 yuan in 2024, dropping to 0.02 yuan in 2025, and then increasing to 0.10 yuan in 2026 and 0.16 yuan in 2027 [3][11] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 0.31% in 2024 to 1.28% in 2027 [3][11] Market and Product Strategy - The company is implementing a "two low, one small" product strategy to align with current consumer trends [8] - The company is focusing on its core market in Hunan and enhancing terminal coverage and sales efficiency through refined management practices [8] - The company is leveraging resources from its controlling shareholder to expand cooperation opportunities with state-owned enterprises [8] Cash Flow and Cost Management - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was approximately 66.7%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2025 was a negative 330 million yuan, although this was an improvement of 90 million yuan year-on-year [8] - The company is experiencing pressure on cash flow due to cautious payment collection from distributors amid weak market demand [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. 2. Core View of the Report The bond ETF market is experiencing a recovery, with both trading volume and prices rising. The net inflow of funds into bond - type ETFs has accelerated, and the capital situation of local bond ETFs has significantly improved. The share inflows of interest - rate bond and credit - bond ETFs have marginally improved, while the share of local bond ETFs has shown a steep increase. The net values of major representative bond ETFs have continued to grow [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 1.1 各类债券 ETF 资金净流入情况 - The net inflow of funds into bond - type ETFs has accelerated. Last week, the net inflows of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were 4.489 billion yuan, 9.919 billion yuan, and - 1.692 billion yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of 12.717 billion yuan in the bond ETF market. The capital situation of local bond ETFs has significantly improved, with the net inflow scale increasing substantially last week. Specifically, the top three in terms of net inflow amount were Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF (+6.323 billion yuan), local bond - type ETFs (+3.087 billion yuan), and Short - term Financing Bond ETF (+2.003 billion yuan), and only the convertible - bond ETF had a negative net inflow of funds [2][5]. 3.2 1.2 各类债券 ETF 份额走势 - The share inflows of interest - rate bond and credit - bond ETFs have marginally improved, and the share of local bond ETFs has shown a steep increase. As of the close on October 31, 2025, the shares of treasury - bond, policy - financial - bond, local - bond, credit - bond, and convertible - bond ETFs changed by 8.38 million shares, 3.31 million shares, 26.99 million shares, 207.60 million shares, and - 124.20 million shares respectively compared to the previous week's close, with a total change of 122.08 million shares in bond - type ETFs [2][16]. 3.3 1.3 主要债券 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The share inflow of the Urban Investment Bond ETF has increased significantly. As of the close on October 31, 2025, the shares of the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF, Policy Financial Bond ETF, 5 - year Local Bond ETF, Urban Investment Bond ETF, and Convertible Bond ETF changed by 6.24 million shares, 1.49 million shares, no change, 123.50 million shares, and - 146.80 million shares respectively compared to the previous week's close. - The net values of all representative targets have continued to grow. As of the close on October 31, 2025, the net values of the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF, Policy Financial Bond ETF, 5 - year Local Bond ETF, Urban Investment Bond ETF, and Convertible Bond ETF changed by 1.21%, 0.46%, 0.22%, 0.19%, and 0.74% respectively compared to the previous week's close [2][21][24]. 3.4 1.4 基准做市信用债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - There was no significant change in the share, with only a small inflow. As of the close on October 31, 2025, the shares of the existing 8 credit - bond ETFs changed by no change, no change, 0.20 million shares, no change, no change, 0.20 million shares, 0.25 million shares, and 0.20 million shares respectively compared to the close on October 24, 2025. - The net values continued the upward trend. As of the close on October 31, 2025, the net values of the 8 credit - bond ETFs changed by 0.26%, 0.27%, 0.28%, 0.24%, 0.33%, 0.34%, 0.35%, and 0.34% respectively compared to the close on October 24, 2025 [2][28]. 3.5 1.5 科创债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The shares of Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Tianhong and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Taikang led the increase significantly. Among the existing 24 Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs, the top three products in terms of net share inflow last week were Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Tianhong, Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Taikang, and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Invesco, with changes of 43.62 million shares, 22.14 million shares, and 1.70 million shares respectively compared to the close on October 24, 2025. - The net values have increased for multiple consecutive weeks. The top three Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs in terms of net - value increase last week were Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Tianhong, Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Boshi, and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Fuguo, with increases of 0.33%, 0.32%, and 0.32% respectively [2][32][35]. 3.6 1.6 单只债券 ETF 市场表现情况 - The net - value increase of ultra - long - term Treasury Bond ETF led again, and the scales of 0 - 4 Local Bond ETF and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Tianhong led the growth significantly. Last week, the net - value increases of 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF Boshi and 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF continued to lead, at 1.38% and 1.27% respectively. - In terms of premium/discount rates, 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF, 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF Boshi, and Urban Investment Bond ETF led in terms of premium rates. In terms of scale change, the top three in terms of net inflow amount were Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Tianhong (+4.463 billion yuan), 0 - 4 Local Bond ETF (+3.029 billion yuan), and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Taikang (+2.199 billion yuan). The convertible - bond ETF had a significantly higher net outflow amount than other products last week, at - 1.979 billion yuan, indicating that funds were still withdrawing [2][37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The restart of treasury bond trading is likely to enrich the liquidity injection structure rather than being a signal of further monetary easing. It helps enhance market confidence and avoid exacerbating the structural imbalance in the bond market demand. There is a possibility of the central bank buying long - term bonds for risk - prevention purposes, and the total scale of treasury bond purchases is expected to be lower than the same period last year [3]. - Without the boost of increased expectations of interest rate cuts, the market from November to December may show a downward trend with fluctuations. Interest rate decline space will be anchored at the lows after the interest rate cut in the first half of the year, with the yield floors of 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds (old bonds) around 1.9% and 1.7% respectively [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Matters - On October 27, 2025, People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng announced the restart of treasury bond trading in the open market [6]. - In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. Sub - indices such as production and new orders also showed a downward trend [7]. - On October 30, 2025, leaders of China and the United States held a meeting, reaching a consensus on resolving important economic and trade issues and promoting cooperation in various fields [11]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Rate Movements - From October 27 to 31, 2025, the central bank injected 206.8 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 86.72 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 120.08 billion yuan. It is expected that 206.8 billion yuan of base currency will mature and be withdrawn from November 3 to 7 [13]. - The money market tightened due to the end - of - month effect, and the fund stratification phenomenon intensified. Policy rates and various short - term fund rates showed certain changes [16]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Rate Movements and Repurchase Transaction Volume - In the primary market, the issuance scale of inter - bank CDs last week was 734.92 billion yuan, a decrease of 227.42 billion yuan from the previous week. The net financing scale was 170.61 billion yuan, a decrease of 173.84 billion yuan. By the 44th week of 2025, the cumulative issuance scale of inter - bank CDs for the year had reached 28.44 trillion yuan [20]. - The issuance rates of inter - bank CDs of various banks decreased compared with the previous week. In the secondary market, the yields of inter - bank CDs of all tenors showed a downward trend [23][26]. 3.3 Bond Market 3.3.1 Primary Market - In the last week of October, the supply of treasury bonds entered a window period. The total issuance scale of interest - rate bonds was 412.682 billion yuan, with a net financing of 324.196 billion yuan. From January to October, the net financing rhythm of local government bonds was generally faster than that of treasury bonds. As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative net financing scale of various treasury bonds was about 5.40 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 6.15 trillion yuan [29][37]. - The issuance scale of special refinancing bonds as of last week was 2.05 trillion yuan, mainly long - term and ultra - long - term bonds. Regions with relatively large issuance scales include Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, Guizhou, and Henan [41]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - The restart of treasury bond trading triggered bullish sentiment in the market, with interest rates generally showing a downward trend. The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds of various tenors changed, and the term spreads of 10Y - 1Y treasury bonds and 10Y - 1Y policy - bank bonds also changed. The implied tax rate of 10 - year policy - bank bonds was slightly compressed [43]. - The daily average turnover rates of the 10 - year treasury bond and 10 - year policy - bank bond active bonds decreased. The average spread between the 10 - year treasury bond active bond and the secondary active bond was 5.4BP, and the spread between the 10 - year policy - bank bond active bond and the secondary active bond slightly widened [47][49]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - The scale of leveraged trading decreased last week, maintaining an average level of around 7 trillion yuan on the other four days except for the impact of the month - end factor on Friday. The buying intensity of state - owned banks in the cash bond market weakened, and rural commercial banks accelerated their profit - taking and selling. Securities firms, funds, and insurance companies were the main bond buyers [56][66][69]. - In September 2025, the overall leverage ratio of institutions in the inter - bank market was about 118.68%, with the leverage ratios of commercial banks, securities firms, and other institutions being about 109.85%, 192.23%, and 133.25% respectively [57]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures increased by 0.80% week - on - week, wire rod futures decreased by 3.14%, cathode copper futures increased by 0.54%, the cement price index increased by 1.69%, and the Nanhua Glass Index decreased by 0.82%. The CCFI index increased by 2.89%, and the BDI index decreased by 1.26%. Food prices such as pork and vegetables increased, while crude oil prices decreased. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.09 [77]. 3.6 Market Outlook - The restart of treasury bond trading is mainly to enrich the liquidity injection structure. If there is no increase in expectations of interest rate cuts, the market from November to December may decline with fluctuations. Interest rate decline space will be limited, and the yields of 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds (old bonds) are expected to be around 1.9% and 1.7% respectively [81][83]. - It is recommended to keep the portfolio duration in a moderately long range. In terms of allocation, high - quality coupon - bearing assets are preferred, and opportunities in 2 - year AA -/AA - rated credit bonds and 10 - year local bonds can be explored. In terms of trading, attention can be paid to the trading opportunities of medium - duration bonds such as secondary - tier capital bonds that have fallen significantly [84].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral investment rating for the company, indicating that the stock is expected to perform within a range of -10% to 10% relative to the market index over the next six months [12][13]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance, but cost reduction and structural optimization are expected to drive long-term resilience [1]. - The company reported a revenue of 60.88 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.13%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.71 billion yuan, an increase of 32.93% [7]. - The company aims to reduce breeding costs to below 14 yuan per kilogram by the end of the year, with a target of 13 yuan per kilogram [7]. - The slaughtering segment is showing steady growth, contributing stable profits, with a national expansion strategy in place [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 9,092 million yuan in 2024, 8,687 million yuan in 2025 (a decrease of 4.46%), 9,543 million yuan in 2026 (an increase of 9.86%), and 12,753 million yuan in 2027 (an increase of 33.64%) [2][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 73 million yuan in 2024, 77 million yuan in 2025, 318 million yuan in 2026, and 551 million yuan in 2027, reflecting significant growth rates [2][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.12 yuan in 2024, 0.10 yuan in 2025, 0.40 yuan in 2026, and 0.68 yuan in 2027 [2][9]. Business Segments - The slaughtering and meat processing business is projected to see revenue growth of 0% in 2025, 5% in 2026, and 35% in 2027, with a price decrease of 5% in 2025 followed by a 5% increase in 2026 [8][9]. - The livestock breeding segment is expected to maintain stable development, with revenue projected to be 234.46 million yuan in 2024, increasing gradually to 271.42 million yuan by 2027 [9]. - Other business segments are also expected to show stable growth, with revenue increasing from 173.06 million yuan in 2024 to 230.34 million yuan in 2027 [9].