[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 11 月 28 日 证券研究报告•金融工程报告 机器学习金融工程月报 机器学习因子选股月报（2025 年 12 月） 截至 2025 年 11 月，11 月当期多头组合超额收益最高的五个行业（除综合） 分别为环保、机械设备、房地产、纺织服饰、建筑材料，多头组合相对行业指 数超额收益分别为 7.24%、4.37%、4.03%、3.89%以及 2.91%。此外在 30 个申万一级行业（除综合）中，有 5 个行业多头组合未跑赢行业指数。 近一年来看，多头组合月平均超额收益最高的五个行业（除综合）分别为建筑 材料、房地产、社会服务、纺织服饰、商贸零售，超额收益分别为 2.15%、1.97%、 1.77%、1.71%以及 1.62%。且 30 个申万一级行业（除综合）中，除通信行 业以外，GAN_GRU 因子多头组合近一年，仅有 2 个行业未跑赢对应申万一 级行业指数（煤炭、通信）。 摘要 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：郑琳琳 执业证号：S1250522110001 邮箱：zhengll@swsc.com.cn 分析师：祝晨宇 执业证号：S12 ...

眼科专题 营收筑底，盈利分化 西南证券研究院 2025年11月 分析师：杜向阳 执业证号：S1250520030002 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：duxy@swsc.com.cn 分析师：汪翌雯 执业证号：S1250522120002 邮箱：wangyw@swsc.com.cn 投资要点 行业：眼科医疗服务市场规模持续增长 业务：屈光与视光占比普遍提升，基础医疗板块则受政策与需求结构影响承压 公司：营收筑底，各家盈利能力逐渐分化 相关标的 眼科行业相关公司如爱尔眼科、华厦眼科、普瑞眼科、希玛医疗等。 眼科医疗行业稳定增长。根据中国卫生健康年鉴数据测算，中国眼科医疗服务市场的行业规模从2015年507.1亿增长至2024年 的2231亿元，持续稳定增长。随着现代工作、学习、娱乐用眼强度大幅增加，老龄化进程不断加速，预计2025年中国眼科医 疗服务市场规模达到2521.5亿元，2020-2025年复合增长率为16.0%，中国眼科医疗市场持续扩容确定性高。 眼科医院：整体增速放缓。预计到2028年，民营3044家、公立83家，整体较2025年民营扩容911家、公立扩容11家。从复合 增速来看，2019- ...

医药行业2025年三季报总结 我们选取了388家医药上市公司(包含科创板），2025Q1-Q3收入总额16766.9亿元(-0.7%）；归母净利润1427.5亿元(-1.1%）；扣非归母 净利润1219.9亿元(-8.5%）。主要剔除了在2024-2025前三季度提取巨额商誉减值损失的企业、ST类、新三板、北交所和2024Q3以后上市 的公司。2025年前三季度实现收入正增长的公司有197家，占比51%；归母净利润正增长的公司有189家，占比49%。分季度来看，25Q3收 入 增 速 同 比 转 正 ， 归 母 净 利 润 同 比 稳 健 增 长 。 25Q1/Q2/Q3 单 季 度 实 现 收 入 5586/5593/5588 亿 元 (-3.7%/-0.1%/ +1.9%）；实现归母净利润497/510/420亿元(-7.8%/+3.3%/+2.4%）；实现扣非归母净利润442/411/368亿元(-12.9%/-9.9%/-0.7%）。 25年板块分化继续向纵深发展。A股药品（创新药及制剂）板块2025Q1-Q3收入3437.8亿元(+0.6%），归母净利润342.8亿元(+5.0%），扣 非归母净利润 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resonance of the central bank's outright reverse repurchase and the stock - bond seesaw effect has led to a recovery in the net inflow of bond ETFs. The high - level correction of the equity market last week boosted the bond market, with most types of bond ETFs seeing net inflows [2][5]. - The share of convertible bond ETFs, which had shrunk for many weeks, turned positive significantly. It is expected to be a contrarian position - adding operation during the equity correction period in a slow - bull trend [2][17]. - The overall share of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs had a small outflow, while the net value increased across the board, which is related to the year - end chasing - up market of underlying credit bonds [2][30]. - The overall share of science and technology innovation bond ETFs increased slightly compared with the previous week, and the net value trend was flat [35][37]. - Funds were buying convertible bond ETFs on dips, as the net value of convertible bond ETFs led the decline while the net inflow ranked high [38]. Summary According to the Directory 1.1 各类债券 ETF 资金净流入情况 - The net inflow of bond ETFs recovered. Last week, the net inflow of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs was +37.39 billion yuan, +65.43 billion yuan, and +35.52 billion yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of 138.34 billion yuan in the bond ETF market. As of November 21, 2025, the bond ETF fund scale was 718.778 billion yuan, up 1.77% from the previous week's close and 299.83% from the beginning of the year, accounting for 12.82% of the total market ETF scale [2][5]. - Most types of bond ETFs saw net inflows, with treasury bond ETFs leading in net inflow for three consecutive weeks. Only policy - financial bond ETFs (-0.97 billion yuan) and benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs (-3.23 billion yuan) had small net outflows [2][6]. 1.2 各类债券 ETF 份额走势 - The share of convertible bond ETFs, which had shrunk for many weeks, turned positive significantly. As of the close last week, the shares of treasury bond, policy - financial bond, local bond, credit bond, and convertible bond ETFs increased by 4.83%, -0.20%, 0.95%, 2.32%, and 5.49% respectively compared with the previous week, and the share of bond - type ETFs increased by 3.5% [2][17]. - After continuous net outflows for many weeks, funds flowed into convertible bond ETFs, and it is expected to be a contrarian position - adding operation during the equity correction period in a slow - bull trend [2][17]. 1.3 主要债券 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The shares of major bond ETFs generally increased. As of the close on November 21, 2025, the shares of selected targets changed by 5.15 million shares, -0.15 million shares, no change, 117.60 million shares, and 197.40 million shares respectively compared with the previous week's close [21]. - The 30 - year treasury bond ETF was bought on dips. Affected by long - term interest rate fluctuations and the equity market, the 30 - year treasury bond ETF and convertible bond ETF corrected, with the latter having a more significant decline. The net value of the 30 - year treasury bond ETF turned down while the share showed a net inflow, which may be related to its safe - haven asset attribute during the stock market correction and the central bank's liquidity - caring behavior [2][26]. 1.4 基准做市信用债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The overall share of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs had a small outflow. As of the close on November 21, 2025, the shares of 8 credit bond ETFs had little change or a small decrease [27][30]. - The net value of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs increased across the board, which is related to the year - end chasing - up market of underlying credit bonds. Due to the difficult - to - mine long - end interest - rate bond returns this year, the year - end performance demand promoted credit bond allocation, especially the 3 - 5 - year credit bonds with higher yields, which pushed up the net value of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs since October [2][30]. 1.5 科创债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The overall share of science and technology innovation bond ETFs increased slightly compared with the previous week. The net inflow of shares last week was 17.99 million shares, an increase of 0.72% compared with the previous week. Some products had significant net inflows or outflows [35]. - The net value trend of science and technology innovation bond ETFs was flat. As of the close on November 21, 2025, the average net values of the first - batch and second - batch science and technology innovation bond ETFs changed little compared with the previous week [37]. 1.6 单只债券 ETF 市场表现情况 - Funds were buying convertible bond ETFs on dips. Last week, the net values of convertible bond ETFs and Shanghai - Stock - Exchange convertible bond ETFs led the decline due to the adjustment of the equity market. In terms of the premium - discount rate, benchmark treasury bond ETFs, convertible bond ETFs, and 30 - year treasury bond ETFs led in premium rates [38]. - In terms of scale changes, convertible bond ETFs (+26.78 billion yuan), short - term financing ETFs (+25.83 billion yuan), and benchmark treasury bond ETFs (+20.12 billion yuan) ranked in the top three in net inflow, which confirmed the logic of funds allocating convertible bond ETFs on dips [38].

Domestic Highlights - Hainan's free trade port is entering the final countdown for its closure on December 18, 2025, signaling a significant step in financial openness[12] - From January to October 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached CNY 18,649 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[9] - The fiscal expenditure for the same period was CNY 22,582 billion, up 2% year-on-year, indicating a stable fiscal environment[9] - In October, the foreign exchange market showed a surplus of CNY 1,194 billion in bank settlements, reflecting strong risk resilience amid international market volatility[11] International Highlights - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% in Q3 2025, marking the first negative growth in six quarters, primarily due to declines in exports and private housing investment[16] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes revealed significant internal disagreements regarding future interest rate cuts, with a 67.2% market expectation for no rate change in December[19] - The U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, exceeding market expectations, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%[22] Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.04% week-on-week, while iron ore prices rose by 2.38%[24] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities saw a week-on-week increase of 19.89%, although first-tier cities experienced an 8.51% decline[37] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 9% year-on-year in the second week of November 2025[37]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the net inflow of funds into the bond ETF market shrank again, likely due to the suppression of the rising stock market. The net inflow of funds into interest - rate bond ETFs, credit bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs was 1.208 billion yuan, - 0.366 billion yuan, and - 1.395 billion yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of - 0.553 billion yuan in the bond ETF market. The scale of bond ETF funds increased by 0.02% compared to the previous week's closing, mainly due to the downward oscillation of bond market yields in a loose - money environment, which led to a slight increase in the overall net value of the bond ETF market [2][5]. - The net inflow of treasury bond ETFs led again. The net inflow amounts of treasury bond ETFs (+1.101 billion yuan), short - term financing ETFs (+0.682 billion yuan), and corporate bond ETFs (+0.417 billion yuan) ranked in the top three [2][5]. - The share redemption of convertible bond ETFs may be related to the conversion of underlying assets. The continuous large - scale outflow of convertible bond ETF shares for many weeks may be due to the strong motivation of funds to convert shares when the stock market is strong, and the underlying convertible bonds are redeemed and converted into shares [2][16]. - In a loose - money environment, the net value of bond ETFs increased slightly. The recent restart of treasury bond trading by the central bank and the positive net investment of reverse repurchase funds last week provided short - term support for the bond market, driving a slight increase in the net value of bond ETFs [2][23]. Summary According to the Directory 1.1 各类债券 ETF 资金净流入情况 - The net inflow of funds into the bond ETF market shrank again last week, affected by the rising stock market. The net inflow of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs was 1.208 billion yuan, - 0.366 billion yuan, and - 1.395 billion yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of - 0.553 billion yuan in the bond ETF market. As of November 14, 2025, the scale of bond ETF funds was 70.629 billion yuan, up 0.02% from the previous week's closing and 292.88% from the beginning of the year, accounting for 12.32% of the total market ETF scale, with a 4bp increase from the previous weekend [5]. - Treasury bond ETFs had the highest net inflow again. The net inflow amounts of treasury bond ETFs, short - term financing ETFs, and corporate bond ETFs ranked in the top three, while the net inflows of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs, convertible bond ETFs, and science and technology innovation bond ETFs were negative [5]. 1.2 各类债券 ETF 份额走势 - As of November 14, 2025, the shares of treasury bond, policy - financial bond, local government bond, credit bond, and convertible bond ETFs changed by 8.94 million shares, - 0.22 million shares, 1.11 million shares, 21.39 million shares, and - 102.70 million shares respectively compared to November 7, 2025, with a total change of - 71.48 million shares in bond - type ETFs. The continuous large - scale outflow of convertible bond ETF shares may be related to the conversion of underlying convertible bonds [16]. 1.3 主要债券 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The share net inflows of 30 - year treasury bond ETF and urban investment bond ETF led. As of November 14, 2025, the shares of 30 - year treasury bond ETF, policy - financial bond ETF, 5 - year local government bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible bond ETF changed by 8.66 million shares, 0.39 million shares, no change, 28.90 million shares, and - 89.70 million shares respectively compared to November 7, 2025 [19]. - In a loose - money environment, the net value of bond ETFs increased slightly. As of November 14, 2025, the net values of 30 - year treasury bond ETF, policy - financial bond ETF, 5 - year local government bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible bond ETF changed by 0.11%, 0.08%, 0.06%, 0.02%, and 0.53% respectively compared to November 7, 2025 [23]. 1.4 基准做市信用债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - Some products had a significant increase in redeemed shares. As of November 14, 2025, the shares of 8 existing benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs changed by no change, no change, no change, no change, - 4.82 million shares, - 1.80 million shares, - 2.07 million shares, and - 7.08 million shares respectively compared to November 7, 2025 [26]. - The net value performance was differentiated, and most products declined. As of November 14, 2025, the net values of 8 credit bond ETFs changed by 0.02%, 0.01%, no change, no change, - 0.02%, - 0.04%, - 0.03%, and - 0.04% respectively compared to November 7, 2025 [27]. 1.5 科创债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The overall shares of science and technology innovation bond ETFs were basically the same as the previous week. The net inflow of shares last week was - 1.70 million shares, a decrease of 0.07% from the previous week. The shares of science and technology innovation bond ETFs of Harvest, Penghua, and China Merchants ranked in the top three. The net inflow of shares of science and technology innovation bond ETFs of China Merchants, Guotai, and Penghua ranked in the top three, while those of GF, Boshi, and Tianhong had the largest net outflows [31]. - The net value trend was flat. As of November 14, 2025, the average net values of the first - batch and second - batch science and technology innovation bond ETFs increased by 0.01% compared to the previous week's closing, basically the same as the previous week [31]. 1.6 单只债券 ETF 市场表现情况 - The 30 - year treasury bond ETF had the highest net inflow again, and convertible bond - type ETFs led in net value growth. Last week, the net values of convertible bond ETF and Shanghai Stock Exchange convertible bond ETF increased by 0.53% and 0.33% respectively, ranking in the top. In terms of premium/discount rates, the 30 - year treasury bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and corporate bond ETF had the highest premium rates [35]. - In terms of scale changes, the 30 - year treasury bond ETF (+1.037 billion yuan), short - term financing ETF (+0.682 billion yuan), and science and technology innovation bond ETF of Harvest (+0.419 billion yuan) had the top - three net inflow amounts, while the convertible bond ETF had a significantly higher net outflow amount than other products, reaching - 1.228 billion yuan [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The monetary policy will maintain its supportive stance and continue to safeguard liquidity. The central bank may shift its focus from "preventing capital idling" to "stabilizing financing" and "promoting demand," and continue to protect inter - bank liquidity. The new mention of "strengthening interest rate policy implementation and supervision to reduce bank liability costs" in the third - quarter monetary policy report may create more room for the overall decline of the bond market [4][94]. - From November to December, the market may show a narrow - range oscillatory downward trend before the loose expectation significantly boosts the bond market. Short - term liquidity disturbances have passed, and liquidity is expected to be loose within the year. The market's expectation of overall loosening may gradually rise, but it is difficult to form a "synergy" to drive the bond market down before it significantly increases. The lower limits of the yields of 30 - year and 10 - year (old bonds) treasury bonds are conservatively estimated to be around 1.9% and 1.7% respectively [2][95]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Important Matters - The central bank aims to restrict "involution - style competition" in the financial industry and maintain a reasonable profit margin. It will conduct an 800 - billion - yuan 6 - month (182 - day) buy - back repurchase operation on November 17, 2025, with a net investment of 50 billion yuan [7]. - In October 2025, the year - on - year decline in credit data was significant. From January to October, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. However, the increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 1.16 trillion yuan less year - on - year [10]. - The third - quarter monetary policy report was released on November 11, 2025. Compared with the second - quarter report, it removed the statement about "preventing capital idling" and emphasized "maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions." It also added the mention of "strengthening interest rate policy implementation and supervision to reduce bank liability costs" [4][14]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Rate Trends - From November 10 to 14, 2025, the central bank injected 112.2 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 49.58 billion yuan due, resulting in a net injection of 62.62 billion yuan. From November 17 to 21, it is expected that 124.2 billion yuan of base currency will be withdrawn, including 112.2 billion yuan from reverse repurchase and 12 billion yuan from treasury cash deposits [19]. - Due to the tax period, the fund rate fluctuated last week. As of November 14, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.430%, 1.495%, 1.373%, and 1.467% respectively, with changes of 3.80BP, 2.68BP, 4.08BP, and 5.43BP compared to November 7 [25]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume - In the primary market, the issuance scale of inter - bank CDs last week was 710.22 billion yuan, with a maturity scale of 751.84 billion yuan and a net financing scale of - 41.62 billion yuan. As of the 46th week of 2025, the cumulative issuance scale of inter - bank CDs for the year reached 29.74 trillion yuan [30]. - The issuance rate of inter - bank CDs increased last week. The average issuance rates of 3 - month and 1 - year CDs of state - owned banks were 1.59% and 1.64% respectively, with changes of 1.75BP and 0.58BP compared to the previous week [34]. - In the secondary market, the yields of inter - bank CDs of all maturities continued to rise. The yield of 1 - month AAA - rated CDs rose 2.28BP to 1.49%, and the 1Y - 3M spread was at the 52.95% quantile level [36]. 3.3 Bond Market 3.3.1 Primary Market - Last week, the supply of discount treasury bonds and long - term and ultra - long - term treasury bonds increased. The number of interest - rate bond issuances was 96, with an actual issuance amount of 726.866 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 403.531 billion yuan. From January to November, the net financing rhythm of local government bonds was faster than that of treasury bonds. As of November 14, the cumulative net financing scale of various treasury bonds in 2025 was about 6.09 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 6.67 trillion yuan [38]. - Last week, the supply scale of local bonds increased significantly. The number of treasury bond issuances was 6, with an actual issuance amount of 309.32 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 244.32 billion yuan; the number of local bond issuances was 73, with an actual issuance amount of 285.066 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 256.001 billion yuan; the number of policy - bank bond issuances was 17, with an actual issuance amount of 132.48 billion yuan and a net financing amount of - 96.79 billion yuan [45]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - Affected by the tax period, the volatility of the fund market increased, and interest rates showed an oscillatory trend. The liquidity premium of active bonds was generally stable. The average spread between the active and sub - active bonds of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds was about - 6BP [38]. - The 10 - year - 1 - year treasury bond term spread narrowed slightly to 40.36BP, at the 30.17% quantile level since 2022; the 30 - year - 1 - year treasury bond term spread narrowed 1.59BP to 73.77BP, at the 36.60% quantile level since 2022 [61]. - The long - term local - treasury spread narrowed, while the ultra - long - term local - treasury spread widened. As of November 14, the spread between 10 - year local bonds and 10 - year treasury bonds was 15.60BP, narrowing 4.98BP compared to the previous week and at the 30.64% quantile level since 2022; the spread between 30 - year local bonds and 30 - year treasury bonds was 22.19BP, widening 2.00BP compared to the previous week and at the 73.53% quantile level since 2022 [63]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the scale of leveraged trading declined, with an average of about 7.44 trillion yuan. In the cash - bond market, the buying intensity of state - owned banks continued to weaken, with a buying scale of 46.28 billion yuan for treasury bonds within 5 years. Rural commercial banks were at the buying - selling critical point, preferring to increase holdings of treasury bonds over 5 years and 5 - 10 - year policy - bank bonds. The承接 forces of insurance and funds weakened, and their preferences for duration became more differentiated. Insurance increased its net buying of local bonds over 10 years, accounting for 92% of the net buying of interest - rate bonds, while funds mainly increased holdings of policy - bank bonds within 5 years [65][77]. - The current average position - adding cost of major trading desks is generally below 1.825% (except for funds). The position - adding costs of rural commercial banks, securities firms, funds, and other products are about 1.823%, 1.822%, 1.831%, and 1.824% respectively [65][78]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures decreased 0.55% week - on - week, the settlement price of wire rod futures remained unchanged, the settlement price of cathode copper futures increased 1.27%, the cement price index increased 0.03%, and the Nanhua Glass Index decreased 5.41%. The CCFI index increased 3.39%, and the BDI index decreased 1.28%. The wholesale price of pork decreased 0.93%, and the wholesale price of vegetables decreased 0.35%. The settlement prices of Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures decreased 0.97% and 1.77% respectively. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.08 [88]. 3.6 Future Outlook - The monetary policy will maintain its supportive stance and continue to safeguard liquidity. The central bank may shift its focus to "stabilizing financing" and "promoting demand," and continue to protect inter - bank liquidity. The new mention of reducing bank liability costs may create more room for the bond market to decline. The weakening financial data in October also indicates the necessity of maintaining a supportive monetary policy [94]. - From November to December, the market may show a narrow - range oscillatory downward trend before the loose expectation significantly boosts the bond market. Short - term liquidity disturbances have passed, and liquidity is expected to be loose within the year. The market's expectation of overall loosening may gradually rise, but it is difficult to form a "synergy" to drive the bond market down before it significantly increases. The lower limits of the yields of 30 - year and 10 - year (old bonds) treasury bonds are conservatively estimated to be around 1.9% and 1.7% respectively [2][95].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the antidepressant drug industry Core Insights - Depression disorders are the most common mental disorders, characterized by persistent low mood, loss of pleasure, and decreased energy. The etiology remains unclear, with various hypotheses including the monoamine hypothesis and glutamatergic system abnormalities [5][23] - There are unmet clinical needs in depression treatment, including limited efficacy of current first-line antidepressants, slow onset of action, and the need for precision treatment for different subtypes and special populations [5][27] - The current market for antidepressants in China is substantial, with over 8 billion yuan in hospital sales, where SSRIs and SNRIs account for approximately 60% of the market share [5][6] - New drug development is focusing on deepening monoamine research, exploring amino acid classes, and other mechanisms, with a gradual entry into a harvest period for innovative drugs [5][6] Summary by Sections Unmet Clinical Needs - Current first-line antidepressants like SSRIs have limited efficacy, with about one-third of patients not achieving remission after multiple treatment steps [27] - The onset of current antidepressants is slow, typically requiring 1-4 weeks for initial improvement and 4-8 weeks to reach treatment goals, posing risks for patients during acute phases [27][28] - There is a need for precision treatment for different subtypes of depression and special populations such as children and the elderly [27] Market Overview - The antidepressant market in China saw over 8 billion yuan in sales, with SSRIs leading at 3.58 billion yuan (43.44% market share) and SNRIs at 1.42 billion yuan (17.18% market share) [5][6] - The top-selling antidepressants include escitalopram oxalate, agomelatine, and sertraline [5] Drug Development Trends - The report highlights ongoing research into monoamine neurotransmitter drugs, with 128 clinical-stage products targeting various mechanisms [5][6] - Innovative drugs are gradually entering the market, with one local innovative drug already launched and over twenty in clinical trials [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price not specified for the next 6 months [1]. Core Insights - The company reported steady performance in the first three quarters of 2025, with a focus on green differentiated fiber projects [1][7]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 67.397 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.38%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.549 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.83% [7]. - The company is investing 5.6 billion yuan to build a green differentiated fiber project with an annual production capacity of 1.2 million tons, which will enhance its product structure [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected operating revenue for 2024A is 101.307 billion yuan, increasing to 106.476 billion yuan in 2025E, with a growth rate of 22.59% in 2024A and 5.10% in 2025E [3][8]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.202 billion yuan in 2024A, increasing to 2.032 billion yuan in 2025E, reflecting a growth rate of 50.80% in 2024A and 69.10% in 2025E [3][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to rise from 0.50 yuan in 2024A to 0.85 yuan in 2025E [3][8]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: ROE is projected to improve from 3.29% in 2024A to 5.33% in 2025E [3][8]. Market Position and Strategy - Tongkun Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in the polyester filament industry, with a diversified product range and a strong integration advantage [7]. - The company is focusing on upstream integration and enhancing its product offerings to maintain its competitive edge in the market [7].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the technology sector, particularly for major cloud service providers and digital advertising companies [2]. Core Insights - The combined revenue of the four major overseas technology companies reached $411.4 billion in Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 16%, the highest growth rate since Q1 2022 [4][12]. - Net profit for these companies totaled $86.6 billion, with an overall net profit margin of approximately 21% [15][17]. - Capital expenditure expectations for 2026 have been significantly raised, with projections indicating a potential doubling of capacity over the next two years [4][6]. - Cloud revenue growth has reached historical highs, with a year-on-year increase of 26% in Q3 2025, reflecting strong demand signals [4][7]. - Digital advertising revenue also exceeded market expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 18% [4][7]. Performance Overview - The four major technology companies reported a combined revenue of $411.4 billion in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16% [12][14]. - Net profit for Q3 2025 was $86.6 billion, with a net profit margin of about 21% [15][17]. - Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta all reported revenues that exceeded market expectations, with specific figures of $77.7 billion, $102.3 billion, $180.2 billion, and $51.2 billion respectively [9][22][27]. Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure guidance has been revised upwards, with Microsoft indicating a growth rate for FY2026 that will exceed FY2025 [4][6]. - Amazon projected a cash capital expenditure of approximately $125 billion for 2025, with expectations for continued increases in 2026 [4][6]. Cloud Computing - The combined cloud revenue of the three major cloud providers reached $79.1 billion in Q3 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 28% for Microsoft, 34% for Google, and 20% for Amazon [4][7]. - Backlog orders for cloud services showed strong demand, with year-on-year growth rates of 51% for Microsoft, 82% for Google, and 22% for Amazon [4][7]. Digital Advertising - The total advertising revenue for the four major companies was $145.7 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 18% [4][7]. - Each company reported growth in advertising revenue, with Microsoft at 15%, Google at 13%, Amazon at 24%, and Meta at 26% [4][7].