YONGXING MATERIALS(002756) 民生证券·2024-11-01 14:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Yongxing Materials (002756 SZ) [4][7] Core Views - Yongxing Materials' Q1-Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 6 23 billion, down 35 8% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 970 million, down 68 2% YoY [2] - Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 1 74 billion, down 43 0% YoY and 20 7% QoQ, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 200 million, down 82 4% YoY and 32 6% QoQ [2] - The company's performance met expectations, with lithium carbonate prices continuing to decline and cost reduction efforts progressing [2][3] - The company's integrated expansion and cost optimization in lithium extraction from lepidolite are key highlights [4] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 gross margin was 18 4%, with a net margin of 15 9%, while Q3 gross margin was 16 8%, down 2 3pct QoQ, and net margin was 11 8%, down 2 3pct QoQ [3] - Other income for Q1-Q3 2024 was RMB 250 million, mainly from government subsidies, with Q3 other income at RMB 40 million, up RMB 30 million QoQ [3] - The company's 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 1 18 billion, RMB 1 21 billion, and RMB 1 53 billion, respectively, with P/E ratios of 18x, 17x, and 14x based on the closing price on November 1 [4] Lithium Carbonate Business - Domestic lithium carbonate prices in Q1-Q3 2024 averaged RMB 95,000/ton, down 67 8% YoY, with Q3 prices at RMB 80,000/ton, down 24 3% QoQ [3] - The company has made significant progress in cost reduction, with H1 2024 operating costs per ton at RMB 50,000, down over 10% YoY, and further optimization expected in Q3 due to lower raw material prices [3] Expansion and Cost Optimization - The company has formed an integrated layout with 3 million tons of lepidolite mining and beneficiation capacity and 30,000 tons of lithium salt production capacity, achieving high self-sufficiency in lithium ore [4] - Expansion projects are progressing steadily, with the Huashan Mine's capacity increasing from 3 million tons to 9 million tons in January 2024, and the Yongcheng Lithium 3 million tons beneficiation project nearing completion [4] - The company continues to optimize costs across the entire process, maintaining a significant cost advantage in lepidolite lithium extraction [4] Financial Forecasts - 2024-2026 revenue is forecasted to be RMB 12 189 billion, RMB 8 828 billion, and RMB 9 001 billion, respectively, with growth rates of -21 8%, -27 6%, and 2 0% [6] - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 1 183 billion, RMB 1 211 billion, and RMB 1 529 billion, respectively, with growth rates of -65 3%, 2 4%, and 26 2% [6] - 2024-2026 EPS is forecasted to be RMB 2 19, RMB 2 25, and RMB 2 84, respectively, with P/E ratios of 18x, 17x, and 14x [6]