SAINT ANGELO(002154) 开源证券·2024-11-01 15:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Q3 2024 saw weak terminal retail performance, with store opening and promotional expenses squeezing profits. Revenue for Q3 2024 was 1.056 billion yuan, down 11.73% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 71 million yuan, a decrease of 51.68% [1] - The report revises profit forecasts downward due to weak performance from core brands Haggis and Baoxini, projecting net profits for 2024-2026 to be 550 million, 640 million, and 730 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.4, 0.4, and 0.5 yuan [1] - Despite short-term challenges, the company expects to return to a growth trajectory by 2025 through new store openings and multi-category development [1] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was 1.056 billion yuan, with a net profit of 71 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 56 million yuan. For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue totaled 3.536 billion yuan, down 3.6%, with a net profit of 415 million yuan, a decrease of 25% [1] - Gross margin for Q3 2024 was 62.9%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, while the net profit margin decreased by 5.6 percentage points to 6.7% [1] - Operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 141 million yuan, down 67.29%, with inventory increasing to 1.305 billion yuan and inventory turnover days rising to 288 days [1] Brand Performance Insights - Baoxini's revenue is expected to decline by 25-35% in Q3 2024 due to shipping rhythm impacts, while other brands like Le Fei Ye are projected to see revenue growth of 15-20% [1] - Haggis is anticipated to experience a revenue decline of 5-10% in Q3 2024, with a significant drop in September [1] Market Data - The current stock price is 3.95 yuan, with a market capitalization of 5.764 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 4.660 billion yuan [2] - The stock has seen a 3-month turnover rate of 212.15% [2]