报喜鸟2024年三季报点评：Q3业绩承压，静待边际好转

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to 4.94 CNY, down from the previous 7.48 CNY [5][4]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was below expectations due to poor terminal sales influenced by weather factors and insufficient consumer confidence. However, there is an expectation for gradual improvement in sales as winter approaches [3][4]. - The company is positioned as a leading men's apparel brand, and despite the challenges, it is expected to maintain a solid market position [4]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 3.54 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 420 million CNY, down 25.2% year-on-year. Q3 alone saw revenues of 1.06 billion CNY, a decline of 11.7%, and a net profit of 70 million CNY, down 51.7% year-on-year [4][5]. - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be adjusted to 0.38, 0.43, and 0.48 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.55, 0.63, and 0.70 CNY [4]. - The company’s gross margin in Q3 improved slightly by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, despite a decline in revenue for several brands [4]. Market and Operational Insights - The company plans to focus on stabilizing channel profitability amidst weak consumer demand, with a steady pace of store openings expected in Q3 and Q4 [4]. - Recent temperature drops are anticipated to catalyze improved sales for the company's brands, particularly for the flagship brands [4].