东兴证券：东兴晨报-20241102

Core Insights - The report highlights the construction of a production base in Morocco, which is expected to enhance the company's overseas business growth and improve profit margins [1][2] - The company reported a revenue of 3.84 billion yuan for the year, a decrease of 7.97% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -108 million yuan, a significant decline of 202.10% [1] - The report anticipates a rebound in profit margins for the company's main products due to the operational efficiency of the new Moroccan facility [1][2] Financial Performance - As of Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.84 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 7.97% and a net profit of -108 million yuan, down 202.10% [1] - The basic earnings per share dropped from 0.33 yuan in 2023 to -0.32 yuan in 2024 [1] - The company's tire cord wire business generated revenue of 1.118 billion yuan in H1 2024, accounting for 42.5% of total revenue, with a gross profit of 62 million yuan [1] Market Dynamics - The tire cord wire industry is undergoing a capacity consolidation phase, leading to a decrease in market prices, which may pressure smaller manufacturers [1] - The report predicts that the gross profit margin for the tire cord wire business could rebound to 12% by 2025 [1] - The company’s overseas revenue has significantly increased from 447.5 million yuan in 2020 to 1.349 billion yuan in 2023, marking a growth of 201.4% [2] Investment Outlook - The report forecasts revenues of 5.737 billion yuan, 6.675 billion yuan, and 7.611 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.26%, 16.34%, and 14.90% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover from 34 million yuan in 2024 to 379 million yuan in 2026, with significant growth rates of -64.67%, +614.25%, and +56.56% [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 63.86X for 2024, 8.94X for 2025, and 5.71X for 2026, maintaining a "recommended" rating [3]