Keshun(SZ:300737) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-11-01 16:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.136 billion yuan for Q3 2024, a decrease of 17.7% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 126 million yuan, an increase of 54.0% year-on-year [3]. - The revenue decline is improving due to structural adjustments in the business and the gradual recovery of shipments from Fengze [3]. - The gross margin improved year-on-year to 22.19%, an increase of 0.84 percentage points, despite a slight decrease from the previous quarter [3]. - The report anticipates that the overall revenue will continue to maintain a risk control strategy throughout the year [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 7,661 million yuan, with a forecasted decrease to 6,837 million yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 7,399 million yuan in 2025 and 8,134 million yuan in 2026 [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 178 million yuan in 2022, with a significant loss of 338 million yuan in 2023, expected to recover to 167 million yuan in 2024, and further increase to 243 million yuan in 2025 and 329 million yuan in 2026 [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.15 yuan in 2024, 0.22 yuan in 2025, and 0.29 yuan in 2026 [1]. Target Price - The target price has been raised to 7.00 yuan, up from the previous forecast of 6.56 yuan [5]. Market Position - The company is expected to maintain high growth in the waterproof civil construction sector, while the engineering distribution is slightly declining but with a narrowing decrease [3]. Cost and Profitability - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain stable due to product structure optimization and cost improvements, despite a slight decrease in capacity utilization [3]. - The report indicates that the company has made significant progress in handling credit impairments, with a reduction of approximately 12.7 million yuan in credit impairment losses for Q3 [3]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 36.66, with projections of 39.23 for 2024, 26.89 for 2025, and 19.85 for 2026 [1]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is currently at 1.3 [7]. Shareholder Equity - The total shareholder equity is reported at 4,965 million yuan, with a net asset value per share of 4.43 yuan [7]. Debt and Leverage - The net debt ratio stands at 35.98%, indicating a moderate level of leverage [7]. Conclusion - The report suggests that while the company faces challenges, the adjustments in business structure and recovery in certain segments present potential investment opportunities [3][5].