Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xintian Green Energy (956 HK) with a target price of HKD 4.33, indicating a potential upside of 22.2% from the current price of HKD 3.54 [5][13]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with total revenue increasing by 18.7% year-on-year to RMB 3.65 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.1% to RMB 66.77 million. Excluding non-recurring items, the actual net profit rose by 8.0% to RMB 62.39 million [1][3]. - The gas segment showed strong performance, with gas sales volume increasing by 21.4% year-on-year to 935 million cubic meters in Q3 2024, and a projected growth in gas sales volume for FY24-26 [3][4]. - Wind power generation slightly declined due to unfavorable wind resources, with a forecasted decrease of 7.1% in FY24, but expected growth in FY25 and FY26 [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue rose by 20.3% to RMB 15.79 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 0.7% to RMB 1.50 billion. The actual net profit showed a slight increase of 0.04% to RMB 1.48 billion [1][7]. - The report projects FY24 revenue of RMB 25.997 billion, with a growth rate of 28.2%, and net profit of RMB 2.302 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 4.3% [4][10]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 0.54 for 2024, with a projected increase to RMB 0.76 by 2026 [10][11]. Operational Metrics - Wind power generation for Q3 2024 was 2,253 GWh, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, while the total for the first three quarters was 9,697 GWh, down 3.4% [2][7]. - The gas sales volume for FY24 is expected to reach 6.05 billion cubic meters, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.6% from 2023 to 2026 [8][9]. Valuation Adjustments - The report slightly lowers the net profit forecasts for FY24-26 by 0.4%, 1.3%, and 4.0% respectively, while increasing the target price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for FY25 from 5.5x to 6.0x [3][9].
新天绿色能源：24Q3业绩符合预期