CTG DUTY-FREE(SH:601888) Soochow Securities·2024-11-01 16:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance aligns with forecast values, with Q3 revenue at 11.756 billion yuan, down 22% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 636 million yuan, down 53% year-on-year [2] - Hainan's offshore duty-free sales continue to face pressure, with Q3 sales amounting to 5.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 36% year-on-year [2] - The implementation of the city duty-free store policy is expected to benefit the company, as it is positioned to take advantage of market expansion driven by new city stores [3] - The company's market position remains solid, and it is expected to benefit from the gradual recovery of outbound tourism and the city duty-free store policy [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 43.021 billion yuan, down 15% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.919 billion yuan, down 25% year-on-year [1] - Q3 gross margin was 32.0%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 5.4%, down 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company's earnings forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted, with net profits projected at 5.088 billion yuan, 6.021 billion yuan, and 6.973 billion yuan respectively [3] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 67.90 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 140.48 billion yuan [5] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) based on the latest diluted earnings per share is projected to be 27.61 for 2024, 23.33 for 2025, and 20.15 for 2026 [3][10]