富创精密：2024年三季报点评：业绩持续高增，零部件龙头受益国产替代趋势

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [1] Core Views - Revenue continues to grow rapidly, driven by strong demand in both domestic and international markets, as well as continuous optimization of the product structure [2] - Profitability is improving, with cost control capabilities steadily enhancing [3] - The company is a leader in semiconductor equipment components, benefiting from the trend of domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry [4] - The company has entered the supply chain of mainstream semiconductor equipment manufacturers globally, with some products already applied in 7nm process front-end equipment [4] - The company plans to establish three major production bases in Shenyang, Nantong, and Beijing, and is expanding its overseas market presence by setting up a wholly-owned subsidiary in Singapore [4] Financial Performance - 2024 Q1-Q3 revenue reached 2.315 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.54% [2] - 2024 Q1-Q3 net profit attributable to the parent company was 190 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.72% [2] - 2024 Q1-Q3 non-GAAP net profit was 175 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 370.96% [2] - 2024 Q3 revenue was 809 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.01%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.47% [2] - 2024 Q3 net profit attributable to the parent company was 68 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.96%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.69% [2] - 2024 Q3 non-GAAP net profit was 62 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 423.85%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.57% [2] - 2024 Q1-Q3 gross profit margin was 28.78%, a year-on-year increase of 1.70 percentage points [3] - 2024 Q1-Q3 net profit margin was 7.12%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.41 percentage points [3] - 2024 Q1-Q3 R&D investment was 157 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.54% [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2.9 billion yuan (up 16% from the original forecast), 4.1 billion yuan (up 28% from the original forecast), and 5.6 billion yuan (up 37% from the original forecast) [4] - The current market value corresponds to a PE ratio of 68/48/35 times for 2024-2026 [4] Market Data - Closing price: 63.77 yuan [6] - 52-week low/high: 31.14/91.65 yuan [6] - Price-to-book ratio: 4.30 times [6] - Market capitalization of tradable A shares: 11.41679 billion yuan [6] - Total market capitalization: 19.64295 billion yuan [6] Key Financial Indicators - 2024-2026 revenue growth rate: 43.17%, 33.15%, 28.79% [10] - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to the parent company growth rate: 70.38%, 43.54%, 36.48% [10] - 2024-2026 gross profit margin: 26.14%, 25.30%, 24.65% [10] - 2024-2026 net profit margin attributable to the parent company: 9.72%, 10.48%, 11.10% [10] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - 2024-2026 operating cash flow: 976 million yuan, -143 million yuan, 1.358 billion yuan [11] - 2024-2026 capital expenditure: -979 million yuan, -949 million yuan, -900 million yuan [11]