证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·商贸零售 商贸零售行业跟踪周报 2025 年 11 月 30 日 证券分析师 吴劲草 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石旖瑄 [Table_Tag] [周观点（注：文中"本周"指的 Table_Summary] 11 月 24 日至 11 月 28 日） 周大福、六福集团发布 FY26H1 业绩，看好 黄金珠宝需求回暖 ◼ 投资建议：9-10 月金价急涨+税收新政不确定性压制股价，重点关注黄 金珠宝企业投资机会。2025 年以来，金价呈稳定上涨趋势，消费者已经 适应金价，预计 26 年终端消费需求迅速释放。伴随着整体消费回暖， 2025 年金银珠宝社零也逐渐呈现恢复态势， 期间 2025 年 9-10 月两波 金价急涨略扰动终端消费需求恢复进度，以及 11 月初的黄金珠宝税收 新政，但我们认为产业链将税负全部向下游传递后，消费者接受程度较 好，同时新政整治此前灰色市场，长期利好合规的黄金珠宝品牌集中度 提升。目前主要上市公司估值处于历史上较低位置，且具备较强的盈利 现金流质量和分红能力，建议重点关注黄金珠宝板块，重点推荐标的： ...

国债买卖或重长期效应轻短期规模 2025 年 11 月 30 日 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 宏观量化经济指数周报 20251130 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书：S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《流动性与科技双驱动的资本市场— —2026 年度展望：大类资产》 2025-11-28 《俄乌"28 点"停火协议：和平之路 依旧漫长》 2025-11-27 东吴证券研究所 1 / 14 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 周度 ECI 指数：从周度数据来看，截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日，本周 ECI 供给指数为49.95%，较上周回升0.01个百分点；ECI需求指数为49.86%， 较上周回落 0.01 个百分点。从分项来看，ECI 投资指数为 49.87%，较 上周回落 0.01 个百分点；ECI ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·非银金融 非银金融行业跟踪周报 交易量有所下降；商业不动产 REITs 试点稳 步推进 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 风险提示：1）宏观经济不及预期；2）政策趋紧抑制行业创新；3）市场 竞争加剧风险。 2025 年 11 月 30 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 罗宇康 执业证书：S0600525090002 luoyk@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 2024/12/2 2025/4/1 2025/7/30 2025/11/27 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究 《证券行业并购稳步推进；保险业总 资产突破 40 万亿》 2025-11-23 《中金公司拟换股合并东兴证券、信 达证券，资产规模将破万亿元》 2025-11-20 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 非银行金融子行业近期表现：最近 5 个交易日（2025 年 11 月 24 日- ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20251130 周观： 如何看待波动带来的配置机会 （2025 年第 46 期） [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 观点 2025 年 11 月 30 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐沐阳 执业证书：S0600523060003 xumy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐津晶 执业证书：S0600523110001 xujj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《 二 级 资 本 债 周 度 数 据 跟 踪 （20251124-20251128）》 2025-11-29 《绿色债券周度数据跟踪（20251124- 20251128）》 2025-11-29 东吴证券研究所 1 / 44 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] ◼ 11 月以来利率首次摆脱窄幅震荡，如何看待波动带来的配置机会？本 周（2025.1 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·医药生物 医药生物行业跟踪周报 海外小核酸进入收获期，关注国内悦康、前 沿、福元等 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 11 月 30 日 证券分析师 朱国广 执业证书：S0600520070004 zhugg@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -13% -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 20% 2024/12/2 2025/4/1 2025/7/30 2025/11/27 医药生物 沪深300 相关研究 《药店现金流稳健、估值低，重点推 荐益丰药房、大参林等》 2025-11-23 《医药行业 2025Q3 总结报告：CXO 及科研服务收入持续高增长，有望延 续》 2025-11-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 28 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周、年初至今 A 股医药指数涨幅分别为 2.67%、16.72%，相对沪深 300 的超额收益分别为 1.03%、1.68%；本周、年初至今恒生生物科技 指数涨跌幅分别为 4.30%、81.69%，相对于恒生科技指数跑赢 0.52 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20251130 12 月 FOMC 前瞻："不降息+鸽派发布会" or"降息+鹰派发布会" ◼ 12 月 FOMC 前瞻：降息仍有变数，关注决议投票结构及点阵图指引。 10 月 FOMC 会议后，市场对 12 月的降息预期经历了"过山车"式的大 幅波动。本月前半，多位美联储官员的鹰派发言及 10 月 FOMC 会议纪 要令 12 月降息概率预期一度跌至 29.3%。但随着就业结构不佳及失业 率走高的 9 月非农数据发布，叠加美股大跌后纽约联储主席威廉姆斯及 其他美联储官员对降息的鸽派言论，12 月降息概率预期再度回暖至 83%。当前 FOMC 票委中公开表态支持 12 月暂停降息的共有 5 人，分 别为 Collins、Goolsbee、Musalem 和 Schmid 四位地方联储主席与理事 Barr。而支持降息的共有 4 人，分别为 Bowman、Waller、Miran 和 Williams 均为特朗普提名的理事与有永久投票权的纽约联储主席，其中 Miran 依 旧表态支持降息 50bps。由于美联储即将进入 12 月 FOMC 会议前的静 默期，因此 12 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 金融产品周报 20251130 权益 ETF 系列： 反抽还是反弹？多一点时 间上的耐心 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 事件 ◼ 基金配置建议： 2025 年 11 月 30 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐遥衎 执业证书：S0600524120016 tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《流动性与科技双驱动的资本市场— —2026 年度展望：大类资产》 2025-11-28 《俄乌"28 点"停火协议：和平之路 依旧漫长》 2025-11-27 东吴证券研究所 1 / 20 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ A 股市场行情概述：（2025.11.24-2025.11.28） ◼ 主要宽基指数涨跌幅：排名前三名的宽基指数分别为：科创 100 （4.48%），创业板指（4.22%），万得微盘股日频等权指数（3.77%）； 排名后三名的宽基指数分别为：北证 50（0.12%），红利指数（0.16%）， 中证红利（0.34%）。 ◼ 风格指数涨跌幅：排名前三名的 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid evolution of the global AI industry, transitioning from "model competition" to "systematic construction," indicating strong momentum for long-term industrial upgrades [2][3] - Key technological breakthroughs are driving the industry forward, with Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.5 model demonstrating near top engineer-level performance in complex engineering tasks, marking a significant step towards practical applications of AI in engineering [3][5] - The report emphasizes the increasing penetration of AI into consumer electronics and daily life, with Alibaba's Quark launching AI glasses that enhance multi-modal interaction capabilities, indicating a shift from novelty products to practical functionalities in consumer-grade AI hardware [4][6] Weekly Perspective - The AI industry is experiencing a multi-faceted resonance of technological breakthroughs, application expansion, and industrial policies, showcasing a critical phase of cross-domain collaboration [2] - The focus on embodied intelligence remains high, with Xiaomi's release of the MiMo-Embodied model, which integrates indoor task planning and road environment perception, reflecting the acceleration of exploration in universal intelligent frameworks by leading domestic manufacturers [4][5] - The report notes that the current market sentiment is increasingly concerned with the real revenue contributions of AI businesses and the ability of companies to implement these technologies effectively [6] Key Events - Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.5 was released, achieving significant improvements in code generation and system debugging, outperforming all human candidates in internal tests [5] - DeepSeek launched the DeepSeekMath-V2 model, which utilizes a self-verification framework to enhance the reliability of mathematical proofs, achieving gold medal levels in top competitions [5] - Xiaomi's MiMo-Embodied model is the first to cover both embodied intelligence and autonomous driving, supporting various core tasks and setting new benchmarks in multiple tests [5] Market Dynamics - The report indicates a concentration of market activity around AI upstream hardware leaders, with a noted decrease in the success rate and odds of chasing after high valuations due to increased uncertainty [6] - There is potential for significant returns in the downstream AI applications sector, which is viewed as a "bullish option," suggesting proactive positioning ahead of expected market movements [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, specifically recommending AI equipment, humanoid robots, and related sectors [1]. Core Insights - The expansion of AI data centers in the U.S. is driving increased demand for power generation, particularly benefiting domestic equipment manufacturers [2]. - The introduction of Google's Gemini 3 model indicates a sustained growth in AI computing infrastructure, leading to increased demand for PCB and liquid cooling equipment [3]. - The humanoid robot sector is expected to experience a significant upward trend, particularly with upcoming catalysts in December and early 2026 [4]. Summary by Sections Recommended Companies - The report suggests a focus on companies such as North China Huachuang, SANY Heavy Industry, Zhongwei Company, and others across various segments including semiconductor equipment, engineering machinery, and automation [1][13]. Investment Highlights - **Gas Turbines**: The U.S. AI data center expansion is expected to boost demand for gas turbine power generation, with significant opportunities for domestic brands like Jereh and Haomai Technology [2]. - **AI Equipment**: The performance of Google's Gemini 3 has exceeded expectations, indicating a robust demand for AI computing infrastructure, particularly in PCB and liquid cooling solutions [3]. - **Humanoid Robots**: The humanoid robot sector is poised for a major rally, driven by key developments from Tesla and other domestic players [4]. Industry Trends - The mechanical equipment sector is projected to recover, with a focus on electric forklifts and automation solutions driven by labor shortages and technological advancements [17][49]. - The global market for warehouse automation solutions is expected to grow significantly, with AMR solutions leading the way due to their efficiency and flexibility [49]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts substantial growth in net profits for various companies within the sector, with specific projections for 2025-2027 indicating a positive outlook for companies like Zhongli and Jereh [19][25][32].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that despite short-term risks, the long-term logic remains intact, with a focus on AI as a key variable in the context of China's "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][3] - The performance of growth styles is recovering, driven primarily by technology, with expectations for a style shift from growth to value around mid-2026 [3][4] - The report suggests that the current AI hardware risk-reward ratio is declining, but technology remains the preferred direction for investment [2][9] AI Hardware and Market Dynamics - The current market is highly concentrated on AI upstream hardware leaders, leading to amplified impacts from a few stocks on the overall market [2] - If market volume is sufficient, this direction may continue to drive the market to new highs; however, reduced volume could increase risks associated with high leverage [2] - The report draws parallels to 2023, where stocks like CPO and NVIDIA saw significant upward trends, with CPO outperforming NVIDIA by a substantial margin [2][3] Seasonal Trends and Investment Strategies - Historical data indicates that in the fourth quarter, funds typically shift towards more stable sectors, with financials and stable styles outperforming [4][5] - The report anticipates an early onset of the spring rally, driven by early recognition of seasonal patterns among market participants [5] - The report suggests that the AI application sector can be viewed as a "call option," with potential for significant upside once key industry events occur [8][9] AI Applications and Future Opportunities - The report highlights that the AI application sector is expected to see mid-term certainty and broader opportunities compared to upstream hardware [7][9] - It identifies several promising areas for investment, including AI+ innovative drugs, AI+ military applications, AIGC, media and gaming, AI edge computing, humanoid robots, and intelligent driving [9][10] - The report notes that while the AI software application market has not yet seen widespread impactful products, recent advancements in large models and domestic initiatives signal potential growth [9][10] Specific Company Insights - The report lists various companies involved in AI applications, including Han's Information, Youfu Network, and Kingsoft Office, among others, with market capitalizations ranging from 88.1 million to 4,207.6 million [23] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies that are actively developing AI applications, particularly in the context of emerging technologies and market demands [9][23]