证券研究报告·固定收益·固收深度报告 固收深度报告 20260225 若政府房贷贴息政策实施，效果如何？ 2026 年 02 月 25 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 事件 ◼ 当前，中国房地产市场正处于新旧动能转换、寻求新的动态平衡的关键 阶段。2025 年末至 2026 年初，市场环境呈现出新的特点：一方面，存 量房贷利率与住房公积金贷款利率的同步下调，已将居民购房成本推至 近年来的新低；另一方面，市场信心的稳固仍需更多精准、有效且可持 续的政策支持，尤其在"高月供挤压消费"这一矛盾上，亟待破题。在 此背景下，由财政资金主导的"房贷贴息"政策，存在从地方试点走向 大众的可能性，构建了"财政补息差、银行扩投放、购房者享红利"的 格局。 观点 ◼ 试点城市政策效果评估：对房地产销售的影响 ◼ 从已实施贴息政策的城市数据看，政策效果存在显著的区域性差异。南 京市雨花台区的政策促进效果最为突出：2024 年 6 月至 12 月期间，其 商品住宅销售面积同比上升 28.6%，大幅领先于同期南京全市 4.9%的同 比增幅，短期刺激效应明显。其他试点区域的相对起色有限：武汉 2025 年 1 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20260225 从利率曲线"久期分割"看 2026 年货币政策 空间 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 核心观点 2026 年 02 月 25 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书：S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《海外市场流动性有企稳迹象，情绪 或会好转【勘误版】》 2026-02-24 《市场短期进入结构混沌期，但大盘 指数仍然稳健【勘误版】》 2026-02-24 东吴证券研究所 1 / 11 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 2025 年 5 月"降息"以来的利率市场运行特点，我们总结认为当前中债 利率曲线出现了不同影响因素驱动的"久期分割"：货币政策管住短端 利率、通胀预期在影响中端利率、财政融资主导长端利率。在"久期分 割"的市场特征下，10 年期与主要政策利率的利差、30 年期和 10 年期 利率的利差或仍有继续陡峭化的空间。 ◼ 2026 年以来利率调控思路的变化：（1）在流动性 ...

Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 526 billion yuan, achieving a net withdrawal of 926.4 billion yuan[6] - The operation interest rate was set at 1.4%[6] - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged for 9 consecutive months, with the 1-year LPR at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50%[7] - A 600 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation is scheduled for February 25, 2026, to maintain liquidity in the banking system[8] Industry News - China and Germany's bilateral trade has remained above 200 billion USD, with mutual investments exceeding 65 billion USD, accounting for nearly 25% of China's total trade with the EU[9] - The tourism-related service sales revenue increased by over 39% year-on-year during the Spring Festival, with daily sales growth of 13.7% compared to the previous year[12][13] Market Performance - On February 24, 2026, the North Exchange 50 index rose by 0.37%, while the ChiNext index increased by 0.99%[16] - The average market capitalization of the North Exchange component stocks was 3.195 billion yuan, with a trading volume of 16.379 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.057 billion yuan from the previous trading day[16] - Among the North Exchange stocks, 242 stocks closed higher, with *ST Yun Chuang leading at a 29.97% increase[17]

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·其他电源设备Ⅱ 东方电气（600875） 东方巨擎，筑能源之基 2026 年 02 月 24 日 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 60,677 | 69,695 | 80,756 | 90,713 | 99,988 | | 同比（%） | 9.60 | 14.86 | 15.87 | 12.33 | 10.22 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3,550 | 2,922 | 3,501 | 4,524 | 5,440 | | 同比（%） | 24.23 | (17.70) | 19.80 | 29.23 | 20.24 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.03 | 0.84 | 1.01 | 1.31 | 1.57 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 32.96 | 40.05 | 33.43 | 25.87 | 21.51 | [Table_Tag] [T ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·食物饮品(HS) 中烟香港（06055.HK） 境内免税市场独家出口卷烟，毛利率有望提 升 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | 11,836 | 13,074 | 14,856 | 16,071 | 17,470 | | 同比(%) | 42.19 | 10.46 | 13.63 | 8.17 | 8.71 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 598.77 | 853.74 | 938.26 | 1,057.95 | 1,300.22 | | 同比(%) | 59.71 | 42.58 | 9.90 | 12.76 | 22.90 | | EPS-最新摊薄（港元/股） | 0.87 | 1.23 | 1.36 | 1.53 | 1.88 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 52.81 | 37.04 | 33.70 | 29.89 | 24.32 | [Table_Ta ...

燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·燃气Ⅱ 气温回暖&美伊局势紧张，美国气价回落，欧 洲气价微涨 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 谷玥 执业证书：S0600524090002 guy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 2026 年 02 月 24 日 2026-02-02 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2025/2/24 2025/6/22 2025/10/18 2026/2/13 燃气Ⅱ 沪深300 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 价格跟踪：气温回暖&美伊局势紧张，美国气价回落，欧洲气价微涨。 截至 2026/02/20,美国 HH/欧洲 TTF/东亚 JKM/中国 LNG 出厂/中国 LNG 到岸价周环比变动-3.4%/+1.1%/+1.4%/0%/+3.9%至 0.8/2.8/2.7/2.5/2.7 元 /方。 ◼ 供需分析 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·食物饮品(HS) 中烟香港（06055.HK） 境内免税市场独家出口卷烟，毛利率有望提 升 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | 11,836 | 13,074 | 14,856 | 16,071 | 17,470 | | 同比(%) | 42.19 | 10.46 | 13.63 | 8.17 | 8.71 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 598.77 | 853.74 | 938.26 | 1,057.95 | 1,300.22 | | 同比(%) | 59.71 | 42.58 | 9.90 | 12.76 | 22.90 | | EPS-最新摊薄（港元/股） | 0.87 | 1.23 | 1.36 | 1.53 | 1.88 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 52.81 | 37.04 | 33.70 | 29.89 | 24.32 | [Table_Ta ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·环保 环保行业跟踪周报 海螺集团拟对海螺创业增持 10.61%；重视矿 山双碳；持续关注 UCO 端山高、朗坤 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2026 年 02 月 24 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈孜文 执业证书：S0600523070006 chenzw@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 田源 执业证书：S0600125040008 tiany@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% 0% 10% 20% 2025/2/24 2025/6/22 2025/10/18 2026/2/13 环保 沪深300 相关研究 《解决航天核心资源瓶颈的钥匙， "铼"自资源卡位与提取技术突破》 2026-02-14 《矿业双碳：绿能、装备、资源&再生 资源！》 2026-02-13 东吴证券研究所 1 / 27 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 重点推荐：龙净环保，高能环境，赛恩斯，瀚蓝环境，绿色动力环保，绿色动力， 海螺创业， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the photovoltaic equipment industry, indicating a recovery and growth trajectory for 2026, driven by space computing applications and increasing overseas ground demand. Core Insights - The photovoltaic equipment sector is characterized by both growth and cyclical attributes, with supply, demand, and technological factors resonating together [2]. - The industry is expected to enter a recovery phase in 2026, following a significant adjustment in 2025, where leading equipment manufacturers have strengthened cash flow management and reduced operational risks [5]. - The emergence of space computing applications is anticipated to expand the long-term growth potential of the photovoltaic sector, transitioning from ground energy to orbital energy systems [5]. - Overseas demand, particularly from the U.S. and the Middle East, is projected to be a significant source of incremental growth in 2026, with U.S. solar installations remaining robust and local manufacturing policies enhancing supply chain security [5]. - A new round of technological iterations is seen as a key variable for capacity reset amid supply-demand imbalances, with advancements in HJT technology expected to drive structural expansion [5]. Summary by Sections Section 1: 2025 Industry Fundamentals and 2026 Outlook - The fundamentals of leading photovoltaic equipment manufacturers are expected to bottom out in 2025, with a positive outlook for 2026 driven by recovery in equipment orders [5]. - The report highlights the importance of cash flow management and risk control among leading manufacturers, with adjustments in payment models to mitigate risks during industry downturns [9][10]. Section 2: Space Computing Applications - The report discusses the significant reduction in launch costs due to advancements in reusable rocket technology, which is expected to facilitate the deployment of space data centers powered by photovoltaic energy [38]. - The U.S. and China are leading in the planning and deployment of space computing capabilities, with ambitious goals for satellite constellations and data centers [41][42]. Section 3: Overseas Ground Demand - The U.S. market is highlighted as a key area for growth, with local manufacturing policies and high installation rates driving demand for photovoltaic equipment [5]. - The report notes that Middle Eastern countries are also increasing their solar installation plans, providing further opportunities for growth [5]. Section 4: Domestic Policy Changes and Technological Iteration - The report emphasizes the need to monitor domestic policy changes and the ongoing technological advancements within the industry, which are crucial for maintaining competitiveness [5]. Section 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the HJT technology space, such as Maiwei Co., Jinsheng Electric, and Aotwei, as well as those specializing in automation and thin silicon wafer cutting equipment [5].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 金融产品周报 20260207 海外市场流动性有企稳迹象，情绪或会好转 【勘误版】 [Table_Summary] 基金规模统计：（2026.2.2-2026.2.6） 市场行情展望：（2026.2.9-2026.2.13） 基金配置建议： 2026 年 02 月 24 日 《商品流动性冲击之后，哪些品种被 "错杀"？》 2026-02-04 《黄金 ETF，2026 年 1 月复盘与 2 月 证券分析师 芦哲 展望》 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐遥衎 2026-02-03 执业证书：S0600524120016 东吴证券研究所 1 / 20 tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] ◼ 权益类 ETF 基金规模变化统计：规模变化排名前三名的权益类 ETF 类 型分别为：规模指数 ETF（154.06 亿元），跨境行业指数 ETF（66.24 亿 元），策略指数 ETF（53.71 亿元）；基金规模变化排名后三名的权益 类 ETF 类型分别为：跨境规模 ...