证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所定期报告 北交所定期报告 20251128 工信部召开动力和储能电池产业座谈会，北 证 50 上涨 0.39% 证券分析师 朱洁羽 执业证书：S0600520090004 zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 易申申 执业证书：S0600522100003 yishsh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 余慧勇 执业证书：S0600524080003 yuhy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 武阿兰 执业证书：S0600124070018 wual@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 陈哲晓 执业证书：S0600124080015 sh_chenzhx@dwzq.com.cn 2025 年 11 月 28 日 相关研究： 《央行逆回购 3105 亿元稳流动性北 证 50 下跌 1.4%》 2025-11-19 《北证 50 缩量下跌,广东印发数字经 济新三年方案》 2025-11-20 东吴证券研究所 1 / 8 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 资本市场新闻：1）加密货币市场集体大涨，美联储主席人选 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is a leading global player in the smart security chip market, focusing on AIoT and automotive sectors, with a robust growth trajectory expected in the coming years [8]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 29.34 billion yuan, 36.33 billion yuan, and 44.87 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 2.7 billion yuan, 4.1 billion yuan, and 5.9 billion yuan [8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in the research and sales of smart security chips, with applications in smart security, AIoT, and automotive sectors [13]. - It has a stable shareholding structure with significant investment from MediaTek, ensuring no controlling shareholder [14]. Financial Analysis - The company reported a revenue of 2.354 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.49%, and a net profit of 256.26 million yuan, up 25.18% year-on-year [20]. - The smart security segment remains the primary revenue source, consistently contributing over 50% to total revenue [23]. Smart Security Market - The global market for smart security is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3% from 2021 to 2026, reaching 29.9 billion USD by 2026 [41]. - The company holds a leading market share in both IPC SoC and NVR SoC segments, with 36.5% and 38.7% market shares respectively in 2021 [49]. Smart IoT and Automotive Sectors - The company is expanding into the smart IoT market, particularly in robotic and AI glasses sectors, leveraging its visual AI and 3D sensing technologies [60]. - In the automotive sector, the company is the second-largest supplier of driving recorder chips in China, with plans to penetrate the front-mounted market [8]. Research and Development - The company maintains a high R&D expenditure, with a rate of 25.59% in 2024, reflecting its commitment to innovation and product development [27]. - The R&D team constitutes 77.5% of the total workforce, indicating a strong focus on technological advancement [27].

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·工程机械 中力股份（603194） 全球锂电叉车龙头，引领物料搬运绿色化+智 能化发展 增持（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 5,921 | 6,552 | 7,166 | 7,906 | 8,742 | | 同比（%） | 18.16 | 10.66 | 9.36 | 10.34 | 10.56 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 805.75 | 839.81 | 906.71 | 996.15 | 1,133.49 | | 同比（%） | 28.51 | 4.23 | 7.97 | 9.86 | 13.79 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.01 | 2.09 | 2.26 | 2.48 | 2.83 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 18.24 | 17.50 | 16.21 | 14.76 | 12.97 | [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Tabl ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·计算机设备 苏州科达（603660） 把握 AI+机遇，积极拓展海外市场 2025 年 11 月 28 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,816 | 1,331 | 1,396 | 1,594 | 1,853 | | 同比（%） | 15.19 | (26.73) | 4.92 | 14.18 | 16.21 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (264.45) | (203.45) | 7.79 | 39.90 | 108.07 | | 同比（%） | 54.65 | 23.07 | 103.83 | 412.39 | 170.82 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | (0.46) | (0.35) | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.19 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | (21.57) | (28.03) | 732.36 | 142.93 | 52. ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 黄金：长期叙事再强化。我们预期至 2025 年底，全年金价维持 4000- 4200 美元/盎司震荡，明年 1-2 月或再次启动上涨，全年保持短时间快 涨、长时间震荡的走势。预计 2026 年流动性宽松后黄金将继续维持上 涨趋势。 A 股：进入"创新牛"的下一阶段。通胀回升带动基本面盈利修复， 流动性驱动估值提升，产业趋势加持下，盈利估值双向提升，外资、 机构和个人投资者资金持续入市。结构性牛市延续，风格有望从科技 向核心制造业和资源品扩散，市场有望进入"创新牛"下一阶段，行 业配置上以科技为主线，全球安全（军工、供应链）、弱美元（大宗商 品）、通胀抬升（PPI 反内卷新能源链和 CPI 服务消费新消费链）为支 线交替引领指数上行。 美股：产业驱动延续新高。受益于宏观环境与 AI 产业叙事的多重利 好，美股有望再次创造新高点。从盈利预期来看，25Q3 以来市场对 2025、2026 年标普 500 盈利预期已持续上修、偏离季节性低迷；但与 此同时，从估值视角来看，当前已处于高位的估值水平与美股对 AI 泡 沫叙事较强的依赖度意味着，未来估值的进一步向上易带动波动率同 步走 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,120 | 1,649 | 2,171 | 3,407 | 4,343 | | 同比(%) | 111.22 | 47.20 | 31.63 | 56.96 | 27.49 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (4,336.63) | (481.83) | (228.12) | 58.07 | 378.66 | | 同比(%) | (107.63) | 88.89 | 52.66 | 125.46 | 552.07 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | (8.95) | (0.99) | (0.47) | 0.12 | 0.78 | | P/S（现价&最新摊薄） | 12.48 | 8.48 | 6.44 | 4.10 | 3.22 | [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 11 月 28 ...

东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-11-28 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] #海外政治：俄乌"28 点"停火协议：和平之路依旧漫长 证券研究报告 核心观点：近期特朗普提出的俄乌"28 点"停火协议要求乌克兰放弃对 克里米亚、卢甘斯克和顿涅茨克等核心地区的领土宣称，逾越了乌克兰的 "战略红线"，同时乌克兰现存政治制度令协议中的诸多条款难以落地， 且协议对欧洲战略地位的忽视也令未来地缘局势面临不确定性。因此该 和平协议并未能够解决俄乌双方之间的核心争议，其仍需要进一步的多 边磋商与修改，俄乌冲突的和平之路未来依旧漫长，短期内由消息驱动带 来的油价进一步下行的空间较为有限。向前看，面对未来可能因协议内容 分歧而受挫的谈判局势，特朗普或通过升级经济和军事制裁措施等手段 进行强力施压，迫使俄乌再度推进谈判进程。这或反而助推地缘摩擦，给 市场风险偏好带来冲击，原油与黄金价格的波动或因此进一步放大。 风 险提示：特朗普外交政策变化幅度超预期；俄乌冲突局势再度升级；市场 对俄乌冲突相关消息的反应不及预期。 固收金工 [Table_FixedGain] 2026 年信用债年度策略：信用利差扩 ...

Group 1: Key Points on the Ceasefire Agreement - The proposed "28-point" ceasefire agreement requires Ukraine to abandon territorial claims over Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk, crossing Ukraine's "strategic red line" [1] - The agreement has been modified to "19 points" due to Ukraine's constitutional constraints and the need for further negotiations [1] - Key provisions include the recognition of Crimea and other territories as Russian, and a phased lifting of sanctions against Russia [1] Group 2: Political and Economic Implications - The agreement's failure to address core disputes means the path to peace remains long and uncertain, with potential for increased geopolitical friction [2] - Trump may escalate economic and military sanctions to pressure negotiations, potentially impacting market risk appetite [2] - The U.S. and Europe are expected to contribute $1 trillion for Ukraine's reconstruction, with the U.S. receiving 50% of profits from investments [1] Group 3: Market Impact - Oil prices may have limited downward movement despite recent negotiation news, as substantial breakthroughs towards a ceasefire are lacking [3] - Future negotiations may lead to increased volatility in oil and gold prices due to geopolitical tensions [3] - The market's reaction to news regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict may not meet expectations, posing additional risks [3]

Core Insights - The copper market is expected to maintain a tight balance in supply and demand, with prices projected to rise, reaching historical highs by the end of 2025, driven by financial factors and market sentiment rather than actual demand shortages [2][4][15] - Global refined copper demand in 2024 is anticipated to be dominated by China, accounting for 58% of total consumption, while the U.S. will contribute 6% [2][24] - China's copper demand is expected to grow steadily in 2025, with significant increases in the production of copper rods and tubes, while copper foil shows exceptional performance [3][25] Supply and Demand Dynamics - From January to August 2025, the global copper supply and demand remained in a tight balance, with an average monthly surplus of 0.8 thousand tons, despite high prices suppressing demand [2][19] - The refined copper consumption in 2025 is projected to increase, primarily driven by China, Japan, and Germany, while demand from Mexico and Finland is expected to decline [20][24] - The supply side is characterized by a slow increase in C1 costs and ongoing shortages in the mining sector, with refined copper production growth lagging behind that of copper concentrate [3][19] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The copper price is expected to experience fluctuations, with a projected average of $9,704 per ton in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [4][12] - The price movements in 2025 are influenced by traditional commodity attributes, with financial attributes showing a negative correlation, particularly as the U.S. dollar fluctuates [4][13][15] - The anticipated tight supply and steady demand are expected to keep copper prices on an upward trajectory, potentially reaching $10,500 per ton in 2026 [5][15] Investment Strategies - Investment opportunities are identified in upstream mining resources, particularly in companies with significant resource advantages, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [5] - Downstream processing companies with high barriers to entry are also recommended, including Hailiang Co., with a focus on those performing well in their respective sectors [5]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·汽车(HS) 理想汽车-W（02015.HK） 2025 年三季报点评：业绩短期承压，构建具 身智能完整 AI 系统 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 123,851 | 144,460 | 113,377 | 138,050 | 191,210 | | 同比(%) | 173.48 | 16.64 | (21.52) | 21.76 | 38.51 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 11,704.13 | 8,032.35 | 853.49 | 1,583.22 | 6,360.02 | | 同比(%) | 681.65 | (31.37) | (89.37) | 85.50 | 301.71 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 5.47 | 3.75 | 0.40 | 0.74 | 2.97 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 11.93 | 17.39 | 1 ...