证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20251203 换手率变化率的稳定 GTR 选股因子绩效月 报 20251130 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 2025 年 12 月 03 日 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 凌志杰 执业证书：S0600525040007 lingzhj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《换手率变化率的稳定 GTR 因子— —助推换手率的所有家族成员》 2023-05-16 《换手率变化率的稳定 GTR 选股因 子绩效月报 20251031》 2025-11-07 东吴证券研究所 1 / 8 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 | 图 | 1： | 换手率变化率的稳定 | | 因子 GTR | 10 | 分组及多空对冲净值走势（2006/01-2025/11） | 4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 2： | 纯净优加 | TPS_Turbo | 因子 ...

证券研究报告 证券分析师：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 证券分析师：郭雨蒙 执业证书编号：S0600525030002 二零二五年十二月二日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心结论 2 （ ◼ AI驱动下液冷+机器人需求爆发，开启汽零增长曲线：AI推动算力基础设施与智能终 端的持续升级，AIDC高功率密度场景催生液冷系统成为配套刚需，同时机器人由0-1 迈向1-10。液冷+机器人与汽车零部件高度协同，汽车零部件可围绕制造端系统总成 能力及降本能力，从汽车热管理延展至数据中心液冷，从精密制造延展至机器人核心 零件，形成汽车零部件行业的"第二/第三增长曲线"，重塑汽零的业务边界和增长曲 线。 ◼ 具备技术同源、系统集成与降本能力、全球化能力的汽零，将成为AI主线浪潮下的受 益者。车企+汽零公司纷纷拓展业务边界，完成"同源制造+场景协同"布局。机器人 端，车企与汽零企业的"软硬协同"将智能驾驶的大脑能力迁移到具身智能，特斯拉/ 小鹏/小米将模型+数据+算力+供应链体系迁移至具身智能，液冷/智驾/机器人共享热 管理、电源、电机、减速器、传感器、结构件等零部件产品，汽车Tier1/零部件龙头 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·乘用车 比亚迪（002594） 2025 年 11 月销量点评：11 月销量环比提升， 继续加快高端化和出口 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 602,315 | 777,102 | 839,362 | 962,019 | 1,107,275 | | 同比（%） | 42.04 | 29.02 | 8.01 | 14.61 | 15.10 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 30,041 | 40,254 | 35,011 | 50,927 | 66,393 | | 同比（%） | 80.72 | 34.00 | (13.03) | 45.46 | 30.37 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.29 | 4.42 | 3.84 | 5.59 | 7.28 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 29.32 | 21.88 | 25.16 | 17.30 | 13.2 ...

网龙（00777.HK） AI 赋能游戏教育，多元投资增厚业绩 2025 年 12 月 02 日 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 7,101 | 6,047 | 4,641 | 4,932 | 5,267 | | 同比(%) | (9.73) | (14.84) | (23.25) | 6.27 | 6.79 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 550.00 | 311.00 | 401.28 | 674.49 | 682.41 | | 同比(%) | (34.05) | (43.45) | 29.03 | 68.09 | 1.17 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.04 | 0.59 | 0.76 | 1.27 | 1.28 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 9.89 | 17.50 | 13.56 | 8.07 | 7.97 | 证券研究报告·海外公司深度·软件服务(HS) [Ta ...

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a cumulative decline of 5.23% from October 31 to November 28, 2025, with a trading volume of approximately CNY 14,557 billion[10] - As of November 28, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the Hang Seng Tech Index was 23.38, positioned at the 33.40% historical percentile since its inception on July 27, 2020, indicating relatively low historical valuation[15] - The risk degree (TR) of the Hang Seng Tech Index was 7.13 on November 28, 2025, suggesting a low investment risk at the current market level[16] Macro and Policy Analysis - Domestic demand data showed improvement, but the manufacturing PMI for October fell below the expansion threshold, negatively impacting market confidence[19] - The combination of "fiscal bond issuance + monetary policy continuation" effectively mitigated funding disturbances, while dovish signals from the Federal Reserve stabilized the valuation environment[29] - The release of multiple industry policies, particularly in new energy and satellite IoT, provided long-term support for the relevant sectors' fundamentals[29] Industry Dynamics - The consumer technology sector showed structural differentiation in earnings reports, with companies like Meituan and JD.com facing profit declines due to intensified competition, while Tencent and Xiaomi improved profitability through international expansion and premiumization[40] - AI breakthroughs opened new commercial pathways, with the disparity in corporate earnings becoming a key variable affecting market expectations[40] Future Outlook - The Hang Seng Tech Index is expected to maintain a bottom consolidation and slight upward trend in December 2025, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and policy expectations[58] - Key upcoming events include the December FOMC meeting and the release of various macroeconomic data, which will significantly impact market sentiment and index performance[58]

Market Performance Review - The Nasdaq 100 index experienced a cumulative decline of 1.64% from October 31 to November 28, 2025, with a total trading volume of approximately $50,457 billion[9] - As of November 28, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 index's PE-TTM was 36.50, placing it at the 91.4% historical percentile since 2011, indicating a relatively high valuation[14] - The risk level of the Nasdaq 100 index was 56.28 as of November 28, significantly down from 92.57 at the end of October, suggesting improved market sentiment[17] Macro and Policy Analysis - The macro environment in November was characterized by mixed signals, with manufacturing PMI at 48.7, below expectations, while non-manufacturing PMI exceeded forecasts[19] - The Federal Reserve's policy expectations fluctuated significantly, with a notable shift towards dovish sentiment by the end of November, raising the probability of a rate cut in December to 71%[34] - The cancellation of the October CPI report due to government shutdown created uncertainty in assessing inflation trends, further complicating the Fed's decision-making[25] Industry Dynamics - The Nasdaq 100 index's volatility in November was heavily influenced by AI-related developments, with concerns about an AI bubble exacerbated by bearish comments from notable investors[35] - Google's launch of the Gemini 3 AI model and Nvidia's strong earnings report helped stabilize market sentiment towards the end of the month, despite initial fears of an AI bubble[36] - The market's focus shifted towards the actual performance of AI companies, with investors demanding stronger evidence of profitability and valuation rationality[35] Future Outlook - The Nasdaq 100 index is expected to experience upward momentum in December, driven by anticipated monetary policy easing and the ongoing AI industry revolution[48] - Key economic data releases, including the November non-farm payrolls and CPI, will be critical in shaping market expectations and the Fed's policy direction[50] - The upcoming earnings reports from major semiconductor companies like Broadcom and Micron will provide insights into the demand for AI-related investments and overall tech sector performance[51]

- The report discusses the SHFE Gold Risk Trend Model, which is constructed using risk and trend dimensions. The risk dimension is measured by the TR indicator, while the trend dimension is assessed using the JAX (slow line) and TMP (fast line) indicators. The model generates signals for local tops and bottoms based on these indicators[14][15] - The SHFE Gold Risk Trend Model shows that as of November 28, 2025, the risk level is 71.67, indicating a moderately high-risk zone. The trend dimension shows a new bullish signal as the fast line crosses above the slow line, suggesting a short-term upward momentum[14][15] - The SHFE Gold Risk Trend Model's backtesting results indicate that the risk level is 71.67 as of November 28, 2025[14][15]

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20251202 预期高股息组合跟踪-20251128 2025 年 12 月 02 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 2025 年 12 月组合最新持仓明细： | 序号 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 申万一级行业 | 建仓日期 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 601838.SH | 成都银行 | 银行 | 2025/12/1 | 3.33% | | 2 | 601077.SH | 渝农商行 | 银行 | 2025/12/1 | 3.33% | | 3 | 600000.SH | 浦发银行 | 银行 | 2025/12/1 | 3.33% | | 4 | 600919.SH | 江苏银行 | 银行 | 2025/12/1 | 3.33% | | 5 | 601998.SH | 中信银行 | 银行 | 2025/12/1 | 3.33% | | 6 | 601658.SH | 邮储银行 | 银行 | 2025/12/1 | 3.33% | | 7 | ...

执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·公用事业Ⅱ(HS) 中国燃气（00384.HK） 2025/2026 财年中报点评：业绩承压，自由现 金流持续改善 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | 81,410 | 79,258 | 76,748 | 77,444 | 78,489 | | 同比(%) | (11.50) | (2.64) | (3.17) | 0.91 | 1.35 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 3,185 | 3,252 | 2,976 | 3,182 | 3,446 | | 同比(%) | (25.82) | 2.09 | (8.47) | 6.92 | 8.30 | | EPS-最新摊薄（港元/股） | 0.58 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.58 | 0.63 ...

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-12-02 宏观策略 海外周报 20251130：12 月 FOMC 前瞻："不降息+鸽派发布会"or"降 息+鹰派发布会" 核心观点：继上周美股大跌后，本周美联储官员鸽派发言令 12 月降息预 期持续回暖，叠加俄乌冲突谈判出现新进展提振市场情绪，美股大幅反 弹，美债利率下行，10 年期美债利率一度跌破 4%。继上周五纽约联储主 席威廉姆斯后，本周旧金山联储主席戴利及美联储理事沃勒的鸽派言论 令 12 月降息概率预期持续回暖至 83%。当前 FOMC 票委中公开表态支 持 12 月暂停降息的共有 5 人，而支持降息的共有 4 人。由于美联储即将 进入 12 月 FOMC 会议前的静默期，因此 12 月 1 日 Powell 的发言将为降 息提供最后指引。向前看，下周 FOMC 会议前最后一周的经济数据仍可 能给 12 月降息带来变数。但无论最终数据表现如何，12 月 FOMC 会议 上美联储都将在"暂停降息+鸽派发布会"与"降息+鹰派发布会"的组 合之间做出选择，重点需关注利率决议的投票结构以及对未来降息指引 的点阵图。 风险提示：特朗普政策超预期； ...