Macro Strategy - In 2026, the narrow deficit is expected to reach 5.94 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 276.5 billion yuan year-on-year, while the broad deficit is projected to be 14.54 trillion yuan, up about 167 billion yuan year-on-year, with a broad deficit rate of approximately 9.8%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points [1][13] - The total fiscal expenditure in 2026 is anticipated to be 43.54 trillion yuan, growing by 3.2% year-on-year, which is a slowdown compared to the previous year's growth rate [1][13] Foreign Trade - China's exports are expected to maintain strong resilience in 2026, with an annual growth rate of around 3%-4%, compared to an estimated 4.5%-5% in 2025 [2][14][15] - The impact of tariffs on exports is expected to ease, with the likelihood of large-scale tariff increases from the U.S. being relatively low [2][15] Industry Analysis - The 2025 Double Eleven sales event saw total e-commerce sales reach approximately 16,950 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, with comprehensive e-commerce platforms accounting for 16,191 billion yuan, up 12.3% year-on-year [6] - The coal industry is projected to experience a weak equilibrium in supply and demand, leading to fluctuating coal prices in the first half of 2026, with a focus on high-dividend investment logic [7][8] Company Insights - Leap Motor's Q3 performance maintained positive profitability, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being 700 million, 3.3 billion, and 6.8 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 103, 21, and 11 times [9] - Geely's Q3 results met expectations, with an upward revision of the 2025 net profit forecast to 18.1 billion yuan, while the 2026 and 2027 forecasts were adjusted downwards to 19.5 billion and 27.2 billion yuan respectively [11] - Tencent's overall performance exceeded expectations, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being 255.5 billion, 285.8 billion, and 318.2 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report selects 7 core indicators from four dimensions: operation, valuation, liquidity, and transaction price, to construct a value analysis framework for public REITs products. Through the linkage analysis of these indicators, it can provide a quantitative basis for judging the investment value and price trend of urban investment public REITs [1][9][20]. - Different types of underlying assets of public REITs have structured differences in various indicators. The report classifies and compares urban investment REITs products based on the type of underlying assets, and recommends some products with good comprehensive performance for investors' attention [1][21]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Urban Investment Public REITs Value Judgement Indicators 3.1.1. Operation Indicators - Current operating income reflects the operating results of the underlying assets of REITs products during the reporting period, and its stability and growth determine the sustainability of future distributable cash flows and support the reasonableness of the current valuation level [10]. - Current distributable amount represents the net cash flow available for dividends after deducting various operating expenses, interest expenses, and taxes from the net profit of the REITs project, which measures the dividend - paying ability and cash - flow safety of public REITs products [11]. 3.1.2. Valuation Indicators - Expected REITs dividend rate indicates the annual cash dividend income that investors can obtain based on the current price. A higher dividend rate means stronger cash - return ability [12]. - ChinaBond valuation yield is calculated by the ChinaBond valuation center. A higher yield may indicate that the market price of the REITs is underestimated, while a lower yield may suggest a high price or high - quality assets with low risk [14]. - P/FFO multiple measures the market price level corresponding to each unit of distributable funds. A higher multiple may mean over - valuation, while a lower one may imply undervaluation [15]. 3.1.3. Liquidity Indicator - Daily turnover rate reflects the trading activity of REITs products in the secondary market. A higher turnover rate means better liquidity, high market attention, and frequent capital inflows and outflows [16]. 3.1.4. Transaction Price Indicator - Daily price change measures the change ratio of the market price of REITs products compared with the previous trading day. A price increase reflects market recognition of the project's fundamentals or expected dividends, while a decrease may be due to valuation adjustment or liquidity contraction [17][18][19]. 3.2. Deconstruction of Allocation Value of Urban Investment Public REITs by Indicators 3.2.1. Transportation Infrastructure Category - **Operation Indicators**: As of Q3 2025, the operating income of transportation infrastructure REITs was generally stable, ranging from 1.33 - 5.35 billion yuan, and the distributable amount showed a differentiated pattern. Leading projects such as CICC Anhui Expressway REIT, Ping An Guangzhou - Heyuan Expressway REIT, and Zheshang Shanghai - Hangzhou - Ningbo Expressway REIT had leading dividend - paying abilities [23][24][25]. - **Valuation Indicators**: As of October 31, 2025, the overall valuation yield of transportation infrastructure REITs remained low, and the dividend rate was generally high. The P/FFO multiple ranged from 6.61 - 12.15 times, showing a trend of convergence [29][30][31]. - **Liquidity and Transaction Price Indicators**: As of October 31, 2025, the market liquidity of transportation infrastructure REITs was generally at a medium - low level, with a daily turnover rate ranging from 0.07% - 0.57%. The daily price change mostly remained within ±2%, and the overall price fluctuation in the secondary market had converged [36][37]. - **Recommended Targets**: Zheshang Shanghai - Hangzhou - Ningbo Expressway REIT and CICC Anhui Expressway REIT are recommended for their good comprehensive performance [44]. 3.2.2. Park Infrastructure Category - **Operation Indicators**: As of Q3 2025, the operating income of park infrastructure REITs was generally low, ranging from 0.19 - 0.26 billion yuan, and the distributable amount was also at a low level, lacking growth momentum [49][50]. - **Valuation Indicators**: As of October 31, 2025, the overall dividend rate of park infrastructure REITs slightly rebounded, ranging from 4.35% - 7.46%. The valuation yield ranged from 1.13% - 8.00%, and the P/FFO multiple ranged from 17.88 - 24.09 times, with a high valuation center [54][55][59]. - **Liquidity and Transaction Price Indicators**: As of October 31, 2025, the secondary - market liquidity of park infrastructure REITs showed a differentiated trend, with a daily turnover rate ranging from 0.10% - 4.57%. The daily price change was between - 5.47% and - 0.08%, and the price adjustment amplitude was relatively large in the short term [66][67]. - **Recommended Targets**: CICC Hubei KeTou Optics Valley REIT and E Fund Guangzhou Development Industrial Park REIT are recommended for their good comprehensive performance [74]. 3.2.3. Affordable Rental Housing Category - **Operation Indicators**: As of Q3 2025, the operating income and distributable amount of affordable rental housing REITs showed a similar differentiated pattern. Guotai Junan Urban Investment Kuanting Affordable Rental Housing REIT ranked first in both indicators, and China Asset Management Beijing Affordable Housing REIT had a strong growth momentum [77]. - **Valuation Indicators**: As of October 31, 2025, the expected dividend rate of Guotai Junan Urban Investment Kuanting Affordable Rental Housing REIT was 3.32%, higher than other similar products. The valuation yield of Guotai Junan Urban Investment Kuanting Affordable Rental Housing REIT was 4.61%, the highest among similar products. The P/FFO multiple of China Asset Management Beijing Affordable Housing REIT was as high as 53.37 times, while that of Guotai Junan Urban Investment Kuanting Affordable Rental Housing REIT was 30.17 times, relatively undervalued [83][85]. - **Liquidity and Transaction Price Indicators**: As of October 31, 2025, the daily turnover rate of CICC Xiamen Affordable Housing REIT was 1.48%, ranking first in the same category. The price of Guotai Junan Urban Investment Kuanting Affordable Rental Housing REIT and CICC Xiamen Affordable Housing REIT was relatively stable, while the daily price change of China Asset Management Beijing Affordable Housing REIT was - 0.98%, but the price fluctuation was still controllable [91]. - **Recommended Targets**: Guotai Junan Urban Investment Kuanting Affordable Rental Housing REIT and CICC Xiamen Affordable Housing REIT are recommended for their good comprehensive performance [1]. 3.2.4. Energy Infrastructure Category - Huaxia Huadian Clean Energy REIT has been listed for a short time, and there was a valuation premium at the initial stage of listing. All indicators are still in the process of adjustment and approaching those of other public REITs products. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the operating capacity of its underlying assets. If the operating income and distributable amount improve simultaneously, it is suitable for allocation - type funds to pay attention [1]. 3.2.5. Water Conservancy Facilities Category - Yin Hua Shaoxing Raw Water Water Conservancy REIT has advantages in operation and expected dividend rate indicators, and performs well in liquidity and price - fluctuation indicators. It is recommended that allocation - type funds pay attention, while the cost - performance for trading - type funds is average [1]. 3.2.6. Municipal Facilities Category - Guotai Junan Jinan Energy Heating REIT's performance in valuation, liquidity, and price - fluctuation indicators is similar to that of other urban investment public REITs products. Since it has been listed for a short time, it is necessary to observe whether the operating data in the fourth quarter of 2025 can support the long - term dividend - paying ability of its underlying assets [3]. 3.2.7. Warehouse Logistics Category - Hua An Waigaoqiao REIT has a stable operating foundation, strong cash - flow generation ability, high dividend - return expectations, and good liquidity. However, due to its high valuation and large price - fluctuation range, it is recommended that trading - type funds wait for the valuation adjustment stage to seek capital gains, while allocation - type funds can pay attention and obtain medium - and long - term dividend income [1].

[Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·汽车(HS) 零跑汽车（09863.HK） 2025 三季报业绩点评：Q3 维持正盈利，新品 周期强势 ◼ 风险提示：乘用车价格战超预期，终端需求恢复低于预期等 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 16,747 | 32,164 | 65,803 | 116,158 | 140,367 | | 同比(%) | 35.22 | 92.06 | 104.58 | 76.52 | 20.84 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (4,216.27) | (2,820.80) | 693.83 | 3,346.31 | 6,804.09 | | 同比(%) | 17.47 | 33.10 | 124.60 | 382.29 | 103.33 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | (2.97) | (1.98) | 0 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·房地产开发 大名城（600094） 收购佰才邦 19%股权，布局先进通信领域 2025 年 11 月 18 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11,695 | 4,171 | 2,915 | 2,040 | 2,040 | | 同比（%） | 58.88 | (64.34) | (30.11) | (30.00) | 0.00 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 222.55 | (2,336.02) | 279.65 | 248.92 | 267.72 | | 同比（%） | 29.98 | (1,149.65) | 111.97 | (10.99) | 7.55 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.10 | (1.00) | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.12 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 44.71 | (4.26) | 35.58 | 39.9 ...

商贸零售行业跟踪周报 2025 年双十一数据复盘：综合电商平台稳 健增长，即时零售表现亮眼 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [周观点（注：文中 Table_Summary]"本周"指的 11 月 10 日至 11 月 16 日） 本周行情回顾 2025 年 11 月 18 日 证券分析师 吴劲草 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·商贸零售 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石旖瑄 执业证书：S0600522040001 shiyx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张家璇 执业证书：S0600520120002 zhangjx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阳靖 执业证书：S0600523020005 yangjing@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郗越 执业证书：S0600524080008 xiy@dwzq.com.cn 2025-11-04 东吴证券研究所 1 / 8 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 2025 年双十一时间继续延长，全网 GMV 稳健增长。根据星图数据， 2025 年双十一全网电商销售总额约为 16,950 亿元，同 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·光伏设备 证券分析师 周尔双 执业证书：S0600515110002 021-60199784 zhouersh@dwzq.com.cn 迈为股份（300751） 半导体设备加速放量，钙钛矿先发优势明显 2025 年 11 月 18 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 8,089 | 9,830 | 7,561 | 8,330 | 9,414 | | 同比（%） | 94.99 | 21.53 | (23.09) | 10.17 | 13.02 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 913.90 | 925.91 | 764.86 | 878.68 | 1,097.05 | | 同比（%） | 6.03 | 1.31 | (17.39) | 14.88 | 24.85 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.27 | 3.31 | 2.74 | 3.14 | 3.93 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·汽车(HS) 吉利汽车（00175.HK） 2025 三季报点评：Q3 业绩符合预期，新品密 集发力 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 179,204 | 240,194 | 344,431 | 444,750 | 511,879 | | 同比(%) | 21.11 | 34.03 | 43.40 | 29.13 | 15.09 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,308 | 16,632 | 18,090 | 19,505 | 27,248 | | 同比(%) | 0.91 | 213.32 | 8.76 | 7.83 | 39.70 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.52 | 1.64 | 1.79 | 1.93 | 2.69 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 29.84 | 9.52 | 8.76 | 8.12 | 5.81 | [Table_Tag ...

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20251118 AI 科技还要调整多久——港股&海外周观察 2025 年 11 月 18 日 我们认为港股短期震荡为主，上行斜率或放缓。从中长期配置来看，当 前位置有吸引力。 其一，短期宏观政策面暂无更多利好消息。我们预计 12 月中央经济工 作会议前市场或会重新关注政策面。 其二，港股科技短期仍在调整。自 10 月初开始，美股 AI 泡沫叙事再 起，叠加近期产业缺乏新催化剂，港股 AI 科技类股票上涨动能不足。 英伟达财报临近，市场仍在等待信号。我们认为从中长期看当前位置港 股科技吸引力凸显。 其三，历史经验看 11-12 月红利股相对胜率较高。当前市场仍遵循此规 律。 ◼ 美股：本周道指领涨 0.3%，标普 500 上涨 0.1%，纳指下跌 0.5%。行业 上，电信业务、能源领涨；信息技术、工业领跌。政府重新开门，缓解担 忧情绪，AI 质疑持续以及美联储鹰派言论打击美股，美股小幅收涨。具 体来看： 其一，美联储持续释放"鹰派"信号，增加 12 月潜在降息的不确定性。 多位美联储官员为降息预期"泼冷水"，集体给 12 月降息降温。他们表示 政策利率已近中性，不宜 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [3][39] Core Views - The company continues to release strong performance and possesses significant business barriers. The integration of AI is enhancing the company's gaming and advertising business, leading to continuous breakthroughs in models and applications [3][39] - The overall ecosystem of the company remains robust, with revenue growth in online gaming, social platforms, advertising, and fintech [3][39] Summary by Sections 1. Revenue and Profit Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 192.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 188.8 billion yuan. Non-IFRS net profit reached 70.6 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year, also surpassing expectations [9][14] - The overall gross margin for Q3 was 56%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [36] 1.1 Online Gaming Revenue - Q3 2025 online gaming revenue was 63.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%. Domestic gaming revenue was 42.8 billion yuan, up 15%, exceeding expectations [19][20] 1.2 Social Network Revenue - Q3 2025 social network revenue was 32.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, driven by growth in mini-game platform service fees and paid membership revenues [23] 1.3 Advertising Revenue - Q3 2025 advertising revenue was 36.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%, benefiting from increased ad exposure and AI-driven improvements in ad effectiveness [25] 1.4 Fintech and Enterprise Services Revenue - Q3 2025 fintech and enterprise services revenue was 58.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, supported by growth in consumer loan services and business payment activities [27] 2. User Engagement Metrics - The combined monthly active users (MAU) of WeChat reached 400 million, a year-on-year increase of 2%. QQ's mobile MAU was 517 million, down 8% year-on-year [30] 3. Margin Improvements - All business segments saw improvements in gross margins, with the advertising business achieving a gross margin of 57%, up 4.0 percentage points year-on-year [36] 4. AI Investment Impact - Increased investment in AI has led to higher sales and management expenses, with sales expenses rising to 11.5 billion yuan, up 22% year-on-year [37] 5. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of 255.5 billion yuan, 285.8 billion yuan, and 318.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 21, 19, and 17 times [39]

Macro Strategy - The report forecasts that China's exports will maintain strong resilience in 2026, with an annual growth rate expected to be around 3%-4% [1] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts in December is influenced by potential data quality issues and the recent appointment of a new chair by Trump, which may lead to a prolonged period of low interest rates [1] Financial Products - The Hang Seng Innovation Drug Index has triggered a local bottom signal, indicating potential opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in innovative drugs [2] - The overall market is expected to experience a short-term adjustment in November, with limited space for decline, while small-cap stocks may perform relatively better [2] Fixed Income - The report discusses the recent issuance of green bonds, with a total issuance of approximately 69.11 billion yuan, indicating a growing trend in sustainable finance [5] - The report emphasizes a defensive strategy in convertible bonds, suggesting a cautious approach while waiting for market opportunities [5] Industry Insights - The electric vehicle sector is experiencing strong demand for lithium batteries, with leading companies exceeding market expectations for production and sales in 2026 [6] - The defense industry is highlighted for its growth potential, driven by military trade and technological advancements, with four main investment themes identified [7] - The report on the lithium battery equipment sector indicates that manufacturers are benefiting from high capacity utilization rates, suggesting a positive outlook for equipment suppliers [8] Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical sector shows mixed performance, with innovative drug companies experiencing revenue growth, while traditional segments face challenges [10] - The report identifies key players in the innovative drug space, recommending companies like Heng Rui Pharmaceutical and Zai Lab for their growth potential [10] Environmental Industry - The report highlights the strategic move of a leading environmental company to initiate a "back to A-share" process, which is expected to enhance its cash flow and support long-term growth [11] - The company is expanding its overseas projects while maintaining a focus on high-quality growth through careful project selection [11] Construction Materials - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from improved employment data and potential policy support, with recommendations for companies involved in the export supply chain [13] - The report suggests that the real estate sector may see a gradual recovery, with a focus on companies that can adapt to changing market conditions [13] Gas Industry - The gas sector is projected to see cost optimization and demand growth, with specific recommendations for companies with strong long-term resource advantages [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of energy independence and the potential impact of tariffs on companies with U.S. gas sources [14] Public Utilities - The report outlines a significant goal for renewable energy integration by 2035, with a focus on increasing wind and solar capacity [16] - The emphasis on integrating renewable energy into the economy is expected to enhance competitiveness and drive growth in the sector [16] Financial Technology - The financial technology sector is expected to see continued market activity, with specific recommendations for companies poised to benefit from ongoing reforms and improvements in the financial landscape [17] - The report highlights the potential for growth in financial IT companies as the macro environment stabilizes [17] Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector is influenced by U.S. government actions and interest rate expectations, with copper and aluminum prices showing upward trends [18] - The report notes that supply constraints and demand dynamics are critical factors affecting price movements in the metals market [18] Automotive Industry - The automotive sector is entering a new phase with a focus on AI and smart vehicle technologies, with specific investment opportunities identified in the Robotaxi and Robovan segments [19] - The report highlights the importance of supply chain resilience and technological advancements in driving growth in the automotive industry [19] Energy Storage - The energy storage market is expected to see significant growth, driven by demand for large-scale storage solutions and advancements in battery technology [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain dynamics and pricing trends in the energy storage sector [20]