Xiangyu(600057) 东吴证券·2024-11-01 22:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 297.6 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 19.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 890 million yuan, down 24.7% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 42.6% year-on-year to 285 million yuan [2] - In Q3 2024, the company experienced a significant revenue drop of 30.3% year-on-year, primarily due to weak downstream demand from manufacturing clients and pressure on commodity prices, leading to a decline in the scale of commodity operations [2][3] - The company is adjusting its operational strategy to reduce risk exposure, focusing on enhancing flow management and rolling warehouse operations, which has led to a noticeable reduction in losses in H1 2024 [2] Financial Performance Summary - The total revenue for 2022 was 538.148 billion yuan, which decreased to 459.035 billion yuan in 2023, with an expected further decline to 386.969 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year change of -14.70% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.637 billion yuan in 2022, dropping to 1.574 billion yuan in 2023, with an expected decline to 1.356 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year change of -40.31% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.60 yuan per share in 2024, with a P/E ratio of 9.74 based on the current price [1] Market Position and Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from an improvement in industry demand as manufacturing demand reaches a bottom, with a long-term advantage from increasing industry concentration [4] - The company’s market share in the commodity sector has been steadily increasing, even during the downturn, with a slight decrease of 0.6% in operating volume in H1 2024 [3][4]