CSI Solar(688472)2024-11-02 03:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 34.178 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.63%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.955 billion yuan, down 31.17% year-on-year [2] - The decline in revenue is primarily due to intensified competition in the global photovoltaic market, leading to a significant drop in sales prices of photovoltaic modules, although this was partially offset by growth in energy storage revenue [2][3] - The company is focusing on balancing price and shipment volume, prioritizing profit over volume, with an expected total shipment of photovoltaic modules between 32-36 GW for the year [3] - The company has established significant production capacity in the U.S., including a 5 GW N-type module factory and a 5 GW N-type battery project, which are expected to enhance profitability in the high-margin U.S. market [3] - The company has a robust order backlog in its energy storage business, with approximately 66 GWh of orders and a projected shipment of large storage products expected to reach 6.5-7.0 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of over 500% [3] - The company has launched a stock incentive plan aimed at motivating key personnel, reflecting confidence in its growth trajectory, with ambitious profit targets set for the next three years [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 49.417 billion, 60.994 billion, and 73.717 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of -3.7%, 23.4%, and 20.9% [3][4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 2.790 billion, 4.590 billion, and 5.488 billion yuan, with growth rates of -3.9%, 64.5%, and 19.6% [4][6] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 51.310 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.9% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 2.903 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 34.6% [4] - The company’s PE ratio is expected to be 19 for 2024, decreasing to 10 by 2026, indicating an improving valuation outlook [4][6]