Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao [3] Core Views - The alumina segment continues to perform well, with significant year-on-year profit growth driven by rising aluminum and alumina prices, alongside decreasing costs for prebaked anodes and thermal coal [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the completion of its Yunnan electrolytic aluminum base relocation, which will further reduce production costs, while domestic aluminum prices are anticipated to remain high due to rigid supply and a declining interest rate cycle [1] - The report highlights the company's comprehensive layout advantages across the entire industry chain, with ongoing energy transition efforts and increasing green energy proportions [1] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, Shandong Hongqiao achieved revenue of 110.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and a net profit of 15.75 billion yuan, up 141% year-on-year [1] - Quarterly revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 was 34.8 billion, 37.3 billion, and 38 billion yuan respectively, with Q3 showing a 14% year-on-year increase and a 2% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - The average profit for national alumina in Q3 was 1,069 yuan per ton, reflecting a 21% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 19.84 billion, 22.14 billion, and 22.31 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 6.2, 5.6, and 5.5 times [2][3] - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 156.83 billion, 161.66 billion, and 164.19 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 3%, and 2% respectively [2]
中国宏桥：氧化铝板块高景气业绩持续向好，全产业链布局优势显著