财政系列研究之一：怎么看财政赤字？

Fiscal Deficit Overview - China's fiscal deficit is characterized as "constructive" and "productive," differing from the "consumptive" nature of deficits in Western countries[1] - The fiscal deficit reflects the intensity of fiscal expansion and enhances the flexibility of fiscal policy, facilitating monetary policy transmission and economic quality improvement[1] Historical Context of Fiscal Deficit - Before 1980, China's economic development relied on balanced budgets with minimal borrowing[2] - From 1950 to 1958, China issued six bonds totaling 3.84 billion yuan, with total repayment including interest reaching 4.82 billion yuan by 1968[17] - In 1981, China resumed issuing government bonds, with the scale exceeding 4 billion yuan, marking the beginning of using fiscal deficits as a regulatory tool[18] Fiscal Deficit Control and Policy Shifts - From 1995, central public budgets were prohibited from listing deficits, and local governments were barred from issuing bonds[3] - The 1994 Budget Law formalized these restrictions, emphasizing balanced budgets and prohibiting local deficits[20] - In 2014, the revised Budget Law allowed local governments to issue bonds, marking a shift towards a more proactive fiscal stance[22] Fiscal Deficit Rate and Its Determinants - The fiscal deficit rate is calculated as (fiscal expenditure - fiscal revenue) / GDP, with China historically keeping it below 3%[26] - Key factors influencing the fiscal deficit rate include economic growth rate, debt ratio, and debt maturity structure[28][29][30] International Comparisons and 3% Deficit Rate Threshold - The 3% deficit rate threshold originates from the Maastricht Treaty, which EU countries often exceed during economic crises[31] - The U.S. federal government's fiscal deficit rate has averaged 3.8% over the past 40 years, with 24 years exceeding 3%[32] - Germany has also exceeded the 3% threshold in 13 out of 33 years since reunification, particularly during economic downturns[34] Broader Measures of Fiscal Deficit - Narrow fiscal deficit rate, reflecting general public budget deficits, rose to 4.6% in 2023, up 3 percentage points from 2012[37] - Broad fiscal deficit rate, including government fund budgets and local special bonds, reached 7.7% in 2023[38] - IMF's broader fiscal deficit rate includes hidden local debts and other off-budget items, providing a more comprehensive view[38]