SANHUA(002050) 申万宏源·2024-11-02 12:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with revenue of 20.563 billion yuan, up 8% YoY, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.302 billion yuan, up 7% YoY [6] - The traditional refrigeration industry showed steady domestic sales but a declining trend quarter by quarter, while exports grew rapidly due to high demand in emerging markets [7] - The automotive sector saw slower growth in the company's auto parts business, with revenue of 8.11 billion yuan, up 7.5% YoY, and net profit of 1.07 billion yuan, up 5% YoY, lagging behind the industry growth [8] - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.284 billion yuan, 3.933 billion yuan, and 4.522 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 12.4%, 19.8%, and 15.0% [8] Financial Summary - The company's total revenue for 2024E is projected to be 28.224 billion yuan, with a YoY growth rate of 14.9% [9] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024E is expected to be 3.284 billion yuan, with a YoY growth rate of 12.4% [9] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to remain stable at around 27.8% to 28.3% from 2024E to 2026E [9] - The ROE is expected to be 15.5%, 15.7%, and 15.3% for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [9] Industry Analysis - The domestic refrigeration market showed a high-to-low trend in 2024, with domestic sales of air conditioners and refrigerators increasing by 0.7% and 1.5%, respectively, while exports surged by 32.1% and 20.3% [7] - The production schedule for air conditioners and refrigerators in Q4 2024 indicates optimistic domestic and export prospects, with domestic production for air conditioners expected to increase by 5%, 19%, and 21% in October, November, and December, respectively, and export production to surge by 51%, 66%, and 49% [7] - The Chinese new energy vehicle market saw production and sales of 8.316 million and 8.32 million units, respectively, in the first nine months of 2024, with YoY growth rates of 31.7% and 32.5% [8]