非电需求边际改善，煤价震荡趋稳，坚定看多煤炭资产

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [2][9]. - The supply side shows a decrease in coal mine capacity utilization, with sample thermal coal utilization at 96% (down 0.7 percentage points) and coking coal at 88.24% (down 0.4 percentage points) [2][9]. - Demand from inland provinces has increased, with daily consumption rising by 6.10 thousand tons (+1.95%), while coastal provinces saw a decrease of 5.60 thousand tons (-3%) [2][9]. - Non-electric demand is also on the rise, with chemical coal consumption increasing by 0.78 thousand tons/day (+0.12%) and steel furnace operating rates at 82.44% (+0.3 percentage points) [2][9]. - The report anticipates a narrow fluctuation in thermal coal prices, with coking coal prices expected to maintain upward momentum due to supply constraints and seasonal demand increases [2][9]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Core Viewpoints and Key Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of coal supply and demand dynamics, highlighting that supply is inelastic while demand is elastic, supporting the investment thesis for coal assets [2][9]. - It notes that the coal price has established a bottom and is expected to remain at a relatively high level, despite normal seasonal fluctuations [2][9]. - High-quality coal companies are projected to maintain strong ROE levels (15%-20%) and profitability due to their resource advantages and low extraction costs [2][9]. Section 2: Coal Price Tracking - As of November 1, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 850 CNY/ton, down 3 CNY/ton from the previous week [5][16]. - The report tracks various coal prices, including international prices, indicating a stable trend in some markets while others show slight declines [5][16]. Section 3: Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The report indicates that the coal supply situation is expected to remain tight throughout the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, necessitating new high-quality capacity to meet long-term energy demands [10]. - It highlights the increasing coal consumption in Southeast Asia, particularly in Vietnam, which may become a new growth point for coal demand [11]. Section 4: Company Performance - The coal sector has shown resilience, with the coal mining sector down 0.68% this week, outperforming the broader market [12]. - Specific companies such as Electric Power Energy and Anyuan Coal have shown positive performance, indicating potential investment opportunities [12][15].