COSCO SHIP HOLD(601919) 华创证券·2024-11-02 15:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China COSCO Shipping Holdings Co., Ltd. (601919) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2024, reaching 21.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 286% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 110% [1] - The report highlights the strong performance in the container shipping business, driven by high freight rates amid geopolitical disturbances [1][2] - The company is committed to shareholder returns, planning to distribute cash dividends amounting to 30%-50% of net profit and initiating a share buyback program [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit: For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 174.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.8%, and a net profit of 38.1 billion yuan, up 72.7% [1] - Cost and Margin: In Q3 2024, operating costs were 43.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, with a gross margin of 40.8%, up 28.6 percentage points [1] - Market Conditions: The average CCFI (China Containerized Freight Index) for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1576 points, a year-on-year increase of 63% [1] Container Shipping Business Summary - Revenue Growth: Container shipping revenue in Q3 2024 was 71.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.3% [1] - Volume and Rates: The container throughput was 6.58 million TEUs, up 8.6% year-on-year, with an average revenue per container of 1,444 USD/TEU, an increase of 67.2% [1] - Profitability: The gross margin for the container shipping business was 40.9%, up 30.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] Terminal Business Summary - Revenue and Costs: Terminal business revenue in Q3 2024 was 2.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, with costs at 2.03 billion yuan, up 11.8% [1] - Throughput: The total throughput for terminals was 37.41 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [1] Investment Recommendations - Earnings Forecast: The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 49.8 billion, 23.3 billion, and 22.9 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.12, 1.46, and 1.43 yuan [1][2] - Long-term Outlook: The company is expected to benefit from high freight rates in the short term and is viewed positively for its long-term value enhancement through transformation initiatives [1]