DEPPON(603056) Guohai Securities·2024-11-02 16:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7] Core Views - The company has shown a steady growth in its core express business, with a focus on waiting for revenue elasticity as the macroeconomic environment improves [3][4] - The company reported a total revenue of 28.296 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 517 million yuan, up 9.71% year-on-year [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.850 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 1.03%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 184 million yuan, a decline of 19.40% year-on-year [2][3] - The core express business, which accounts for 90.14% of the company's revenue, generated 8.879 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.23% [3][4] Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 7.42%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points year-on-year, with costs accounting for 92.58% of revenue [4][6] - The company is implementing cost reduction measures, including route optimization and vehicle upgrades, to control transportation costs, which are expected to improve margins in the future [6][7] Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 40.756 billion yuan, 45.593 billion yuan, and 50.074 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 12%, and 10% respectively [7][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 954 million yuan, 1.161 billion yuan, and 1.368 billion yuan for the same period, with corresponding growth rates of 28%, 22%, and 18% [7][8]