Minsheng Securities·2024-11-02 16:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for BYD with a closing price of 290.31 CNY on November 1, 2024, corresponding to a PE ratio of 21 for 2024 [4]. Core Views - BYD's wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 503,000 units in October, marking a year-on-year increase of 66.5% and a month-on-month increase of 19.8%. Cumulative sales from January to October 2024 reached 3.251 million units, up 36.5% year-on-year [2]. - The company is expected to enhance its product matrix with new models, particularly in the high-end segment, which is anticipated to drive both sales and profitability upwards in 2024 and 2025 [2]. - BYD is expanding its overseas market presence, with a focus on factories in Brazil, Uzbekistan, Hungary, Turkey, and Indonesia, which is expected to boost profitability [2]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In October, BYD's sales included 190,000 pure electric vehicles (up 14.6% year-on-year) and 311,000 plug-in hybrid vehicles (up 129.3% year-on-year) [2]. - The sales breakdown by brand shows significant contributions from the Dynasty and Ocean series, with total sales of 402,000 units for the Dynasty series and 10,299 units for the Ocean series in October [2]. Product Development - The company plans to launch several new models, including high-end MPVs and vehicles priced above 200,000 CNY, to strengthen its market position and enhance profitability [2]. - Key models such as the Tengshi Z9 and Fangchengbao 8 are set to launch in the second half of 2024, featuring advanced technology and luxury attributes [2]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 833.6 billion CNY, 1,016.997 billion CNY, and 1,214.295 billion CNY, respectively, with net profits expected to be 39.884 billion CNY, 55.435 billion CNY, and 65.610 billion CNY [3][11]. - The report anticipates a net profit growth rate of 80.7% for 2024, followed by 32.8% in 2025 and 39.0% in 2026 [3][11].