CEA(600115) 华创证券·2024-11-02 18:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for China Eastern Airlines, with a target price of 4.49 CNY, representing a 17% upside from the current price of 3.84 CNY [3][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the airline industry is a classic cyclical sector, and once demand starts to recover, the supply constraints will drive strong price elasticity. The expected turning point is anticipated to have significant elasticity, similar to the market performance seen in 2009-2010 [3]. - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of -2 billion, 5.5 billion, and 7.9 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of -0.09, 0.25, and 0.35 CNY [3][12]. - The report notes that the airline's core assets, including fleet, route network, and crew value, have not changed significantly despite the losses incurred since 2020 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 132.94 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.9% [2][12]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be -2 billion CNY, a significant improvement from -8.17 billion CNY in 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of 75.4% [2][12]. - The report indicates that the operating cost for 2024 is estimated at 125.36 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [12]. - The report provides a detailed breakdown of key financial metrics, including a projected PE ratio of 16 for 2025 and 11 for 2026, and a PB ratio of 2.1 for 2023, decreasing to 1.6 by 2026 [2][12]. Operational Metrics - The report states that the ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) for 2024 is expected to increase by 25.6% year-on-year, while RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) is projected to grow by 40.5% [3][12]. - The passenger load factor is anticipated to reach 82.4% for the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 8.7 percentage points year-on-year [3][12]. - The report highlights that the average passenger revenue per kilometer is expected to decline by 14.2% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024 [3][12].