Anjoy food(603345) 中国银河·2024-11-03 02:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, citing its strategic adjustments and new business expansion as drivers for long-term performance improvement [4][6] Core Views - The company reported revenue of RMB 11.08 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, a YoY increase of 7.8%, but net profit attributable to shareholders declined by 6.7% YoY to RMB 1.05 billion [2] - In Q3 2024, revenue grew by 4.6% YoY to RMB 3.53 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 36.8% YoY to RMB 240 million [2] - The company's main business, frozen food, showed weak performance, but new businesses, particularly frozen vegetable products, maintained strong growth with a 24.1% YoY increase in Q3 2024 [3] - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 was 19.9%, down 2.0 percentage points YoY, due to intensified industry competition and a shift to a "high-quality, mid-price" strategy [3] Business Performance Breakdown By Product Category - Frozen prepared foods: -0.1% YoY in Q3 2024 [3] - Frozen vegetable products: +24.1% YoY in Q3 2024 [3] - Frozen rice and flour products: -9.5% YoY in Q3 2024 [3] - Frozen agricultural products: -0.4% YoY in Q3 2024 [3] - Snack foods: -50.6% YoY in Q3 2024 [3] - Other products: -83.2% YoY in Q3 2024 [3] By Sales Channel - Distributors: +3.2% YoY in Q3 2024 [3] - Supermarkets: +15.1% YoY in Q3 2024 [3] - Specialized direct sales: -12.4% YoY in Q3 2024 [3] - E-commerce: +0.4% YoY in Q3 2024 [3] - New retail: +95.9% YoY in Q3 2024, driven by Hema [3] By Region - Northeast: -1.9% YoY in Q3 2024 [3] - North China: -5.4% YoY in Q3 2024 [3] - East China: +0.9% YoY in Q3 2024 [3] - South China: +11.8% YoY in Q3 2024 [3] - Central China: +40.0% YoY in Q3 2024 [3] - Northwest: +10.0% YoY in Q3 2024 [3] - Southwest: +33.8% YoY in Q3 2024 [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow to RMB 15.20 billion in 2024, RMB 16.76 billion in 2025, and RMB 18.46 billion in 2026, with growth rates of 8.2%, 10.3%, and 10.1% respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 1.43 billion in 2024, RMB 1.58 billion in 2025, and RMB 1.75 billion in 2026, with growth rates of -3.0%, 10.0%, and 10.7% respectively [4][5] - EPS is forecasted to be RMB 4.89 in 2024, RMB 5.38 in 2025, and RMB 5.95 in 2026 [5] Strategic Adjustments - The company is shifting from a "high-quality, mid-to-high price" strategy to a "high-quality, mid-price" strategy to boost sales and market share [4] - The company is focusing on "BC兼顾、全渠发力" (balancing B2B and B2C, full-channel development) to drive growth through new products and channels [4] - Localized R&D transformation is expected to enhance regional product development and contribute to revenue growth [4] - The company has launched a new round of equity incentives to strengthen core team cohesion and support long-term development [4] Valuation Metrics - The company's PE ratio is projected to be 18X in 2024, 16X in 2025, and 14X in 2026, indicating a clear valuation margin of safety [4][5]