蒙娜丽莎：竞争加剧业绩承压，现金流持续改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is facing pressure on performance due to intensified competition, while cash flow continues to improve. The report highlights that the company's revenue and net profit have significantly declined year-on-year, primarily due to weak downstream demand and adjustments in channel structure [1][2] - The report predicts a decline in revenue for 2024, with a forecast of 4.913 billion yuan, representing a 17% year-on-year decrease. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 192 million yuan, a 28% decrease compared to the previous year [1][2] - The company is focusing on enhancing product strength, optimizing sales channels, and improving brand recognition to achieve stable operational performance that outperforms the industry [1][2] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Revenue (in million yuan): 2022A: 6,229, 2023A: 5,921, 2024E: 4,913, 2025E: 5,184, 2026E: 5,443 [1] - Year-on-year growth rate: 2022A: -11%, 2023A: -5%, 2024E: -17%, 2025E: 6%, 2026E: 5% [1] - Net profit (in million yuan): 2022A: -381, 2023A: 266, 2024E: 192, 2025E: 249, 2026E: 341 [1] - Earnings per share (in yuan): 2022A: -0.92, 2023A: 0.64, 2024E: 0.46, 2025E: 0.60, 2026E: 0.82 [1] Market Conditions - The report indicates that the real estate market is experiencing a downturn, with a 24.4% year-on-year decrease in the national housing completion area for the first nine months of 2024. This has led to a contraction in demand [1] - The company’s sales in the engineering sector have also been affected, with significant declines in revenue due to cost fluctuations and price reductions [1][2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a channel down-sinking strategy to enhance its distribution network, particularly in county and town markets. It aims to upgrade store formats and optimize sales structures while leveraging digital marketing [1][2] - The company has established a leading position in the ceramic industry through continuous product innovation and the introduction of high-value products [1][2]