轻工制造2024年三季报业绩综述：整体经营稳健，静待景气度改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the durable consumer goods sector, consistent with the previous rating [3]. Core Insights - The overall business remains stable, with expectations for improvement in economic conditions. The pressure from external competition persists, but leading companies are solidifying their internal capabilities and enhancing operational strength [1][2]. - The export chain is under pressure due to external disturbances, but there is a timely opportunity for brands to expand internationally. The performance of the export chain showed a marginal decline in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, influenced by rising costs and subdued downstream demand [2][6]. - The paper industry is experiencing a marginal decline in performance, with upstream layout accelerating. The revenue growth rate of paper companies has shown signs of decline, particularly in the commodity paper segment, while specialty paper companies are achieving growth through market expansion [2][17]. Summary by Sections Export Chain - The export chain's performance is pressured by external factors, with a notable decline in profitability due to rising shipping costs and competitive pricing strategies. Companies with cross-border e-commerce operations are particularly affected [2][10]. - The U.S. consumer confidence index has returned to mid-2021 levels, indicating potential for recovery in home furnishings exports, which are currently about 20% below 2023 levels [6][8]. Paper Industry - The paper industry is facing a weak downstream consumption environment, leading to a decline in revenue growth rates for listed companies. The pressure on commodity paper is greater than that on specialty paper, which is maintaining stable prices [17][18]. - Capital expenditures in the paper sector have moderated, with an increase in dividend payouts observed in 2023, reflecting a stronger focus on shareholder returns [20][21]. Recommended Stocks - For the export chain, recommended stocks include Jiayi Co., Gongchuang Turf, Jiangxin Home, Henglin Co., Yongyi Co., Mengbaihe, and Hars [2]. - In the paper sector, recommended stocks include Sun Paper, Huawang Technology, Xianhe Co., Wuzhou Special Paper, and Shanying International [2].