东航物流：业绩同比大增，继续看好行业景气上行

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4][6] Core Views - The company reported significant year-on-year growth in its performance, with a 31.55% increase in revenue to 6.388 billion yuan and a 100.65% increase in net profit to 790 million yuan in Q3 2024. The company is expected to benefit from the upward trend in the cross-border air transport industry, leveraging its core air transport capacity and cargo station infrastructure, which provides a clear competitive advantage. Additionally, the company is likely to sustain long-term dividends, enhancing shareholder returns [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 17.674 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.19%, and a net profit of 2.067 billion yuan, also up 24.14%. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 6.388 billion yuan, marking a 31.55% increase, while net profit surged by 100.65% to 790 million yuan [6][7]. - The company's ground service business generated revenue of 642 million yuan in Q3 2024, reflecting a 10.2% year-on-year increase, with a gross profit margin of 38.8% [6]. Industry Outlook - The cross-border e-commerce sector is experiencing rapid growth, with exports reaching 1.48 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a 15.2% increase year-on-year. This growth is expected to continue, particularly with the upcoming traditional consumption peak in Europe and the United States, which will likely further boost the company's air transport and cross-border logistics performance [6][7]. - The average outbound air freight rate index in October 2024 was 4,977, representing a 4.6% increase compared to Q3 2023 and a 14.8% increase year-on-year [6]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 25.239 billion yuan, 30.733 billion yuan, and 35.066 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.39%, 21.77%, and 14.10%. Net profits are projected to be 3.250 billion yuan, 3.694 billion yuan, and 4.119 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of 30.63%, 13.63%, and 11.52% [6][7].