LAO BAI GAN JIU(SH:600559) Guolian Securities·2024-11-03 04:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.618 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 252 million yuan, up 25.17%, which meets expectations. The growth in products priced above 100 yuan remains resilient, primarily benefiting from Wuling liquor and A-level products [2][6]. - The report anticipates significant improvement in performance due to the effects of state-owned enterprise reform, indicating substantial future profit growth potential [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 4.088 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.29%, and a net profit of 556 million yuan, up 33.00% [6]. - In Q3 2024, the company’s revenue was 1.618 billion yuan, with a net profit of 252 million yuan, reflecting a strong performance [6]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 66.77%, an increase of 0.60 percentage points year-on-year, driven by continuous optimization of product structure [6]. Market Performance - The company’s products priced above 100 yuan saw revenue of 791 million yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.95%, while products priced below 100 yuan generated 821 million yuan, up 2.29% [6]. - Regional performance showed that the Hunan market accelerated, while the Hebei market underperformed due to restaurant regulations affecting liquor consumption [6]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.565 billion yuan, 5.942 billion yuan, and 6.241 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 5.85%, 6.78%, and 5.03% [7]. - Net profits are expected to reach 873 million yuan, 1.092 billion yuan, and 1.240 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 31.16%, 25.04%, and 13.57% respectively [7].