美国就业数据点评：飓风、罢工、涨薪，戏剧性要素过多如何理解？

Employment Data Analysis - In October, the U.S. non-farm employment increased by only 12,000, a significant drop from the previous month's increase of 211,000, marking the lowest monthly gain since 2021[1] - The employment decline was primarily attributed to the impacts of hurricanes and strikes, particularly affecting the contact service sectors, which saw a combined loss of 148,000 jobs[1] - Government sector jobs increased by 40,000, indicating stability despite external shocks[1] Labor Market Trends - The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.6%, reflecting a decline in employment willingness due to extreme weather and strikes[1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1%, suggesting that the labor market is not rapidly cooling despite the drop in job additions[1] - Average hourly earnings in the private sector rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.0% year-on-year, indicating a potential upward pressure on wages due to strikes and recovery efforts post-hurricane[1] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a rebound in employment numbers in November and December as the effects of extreme weather dissipate[1] - The potential for wage inflation is expected to increase due to the combination of strikes and protectionist policies from presidential candidates, which may lead to a sustained rise in wage pressures[1] - Despite short-term weakness in the dollar index, the long-term outlook remains positive for the U.S. economy, with expectations of a gradual increase in the dollar index until the end of 2025[1]