Qingdao Gaoce(SH:688556) Guolian Securities·2024-11-03 04:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 was 3.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 210 million yuan, down 82% year-on-year. The gross margin was 23.0%, down 23.0 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 6.0%, down 21.9 percentage points year-on-year. Future revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 4.66 billion, 5.25 billion, and 6.16 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -25%, +13%, and +17% respectively. Net profit projections for the same period are 190 million, 540 million, and 790 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -87%, +186%, and +47% respectively. The report expresses optimism about the recovery of wafer prices benefiting the company's processing business and the accelerated penetration of tungsten wire [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 18% year-on-year, and a net profit of 210 million yuan, down 82% year-on-year. The gross margin was 23.0%, a decline of 23.0 percentage points, while the net margin was 6.0%, down 21.9 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 790 million yuan, a 54% year-on-year decrease, and the net profit was -70 million yuan, down 115% year-on-year [2][6]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that silicon wafer prices may have bottomed out, leading to a recovery in industry profits. The company is expected to benefit from this recovery in its processing business. Additionally, the tungsten wire segment is projected to see accelerated market penetration, with the company achieving approximately 18 million kilometers of diamond wire shipments in Q3 2024, of which tungsten wire accounted for about 48% [6][2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 4.66 billion, 5.25 billion, and 6.16 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -25%, +13%, and +17%. Net profits are expected to be 190 million, 540 million, and 790 million yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of -87%, +186%, and +47% respectively [2][6].