Ligao Foods (SZ:300973) Guolian Securities·2024-11-03 04:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.717 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 203 million yuan, up 28.21% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 936 million yuan, down 1.11% year-on-year, while net profit was 68 million yuan, an increase of 35.07% year-on-year. Despite pressure on the main business, the high-margin cream segment is experiencing rapid growth, and effective cost control has improved profit margins, leading to the maintained "Buy" rating [2][6][7]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 31.34% and a net margin of 7.14%, with the net margin increasing by 1.90 percentage points year-on-year. The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios were 10.52%, 6.89%, and 3.60%, respectively, showing a significant reduction compared to the previous year [7][8]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q3, revenue from frozen baked semi-finished products and baking raw materials was 507 million yuan and 429 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of approximately -14% and +15%. The cream products, particularly UHT cream, saw revenue growth exceeding 70% year-on-year [6][7]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 3.882 billion yuan, 4.386 billion yuan, and 4.937 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.95%, 12.97%, and 12.56%, respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 250 million yuan, 316 million yuan, and 383 million yuan, with growth rates of 242.82%, 26.41%, and 21.06%, respectively, indicating a three-year CAGR of 73.76% [7][8].