神农集团：成本行业领先，养殖盈利高增

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The company reported Q3 revenue of 1.583 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 356 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 662.97% [2][6] - For the first three quarters, the revenue reached 4.078 billion yuan, up 42.11% year-on-year, with a net profit of 480 million yuan, up 321.20% year-on-year [2][6] - The company's pig farming business has seen both volume and price increases, with expected net profit growth rates of turning profitable in 2024, 24.04% in 2025, and 57.66% in 2026 [2][9] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.29 yuan, 1.59 yuan, and 2.51 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 6.461 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 66.03%, and is expected to reach 8.649 billion yuan in 2025 and 10.627 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 33.87% and 22.87% respectively [10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 674 million yuan in 2024, 837 million yuan in 2025, and 1.319 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 268.07%, 24.04%, and 57.66% respectively [10] - The company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) is expected to be 1.083 billion yuan in 2024, 1.284 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.757 billion yuan in 2026 [10] Operational Insights - The company has seen a significant increase in pig sales, with 1.6637 million pigs sold in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 49.60% [7] - The average selling price of pigs in Q3 2024 was 19.00 yuan per kilogram, up 23.54% year-on-year and 21.33% quarter-on-quarter [7] - The company plans to increase its breeding capacity by adding 30,000 to 40,000 sows annually, with a target production capacity of 3 million pigs by the end of 2024 and 4 million pigs by the end of 2025 [7] Cost Management - The company has demonstrated a clear cost advantage, with the total cost of pig farming decreasing from 14.6 yuan per kilogram in January 2024 to 13.8 yuan per kilogram in August 2024 [8] - The company aims to keep the total cost below 14 yuan per kilogram for the entire year [8] - The debt-to-asset ratio is at a low level of 27.7%, with a decrease of 3.06 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating a strong financial position [8]