王府井：消费信心仍有不足，三季度业绩延续承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wangfujing (600859) is "Accumulate" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Consumer confidence remains insufficient, and the company's performance continues to be under pressure in the third quarter [4] - The retail market is undergoing structural adjustments, with traditional product consumption remaining weak, while new lifestyle categories are emerging [6] - The company is actively expanding its diversified duty-free business, with a significant revenue increase of 68.6% in the duty-free segment for the first three quarters [6] - The gross margin has decreased, with a notable drop in non-recurring net profit by 70.5% in the third quarter [6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 115.1 billion, 126.0 billion, and 132.5 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding growth rates of -5.8%, +9.5%, and +5.2% [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 8.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 430 million yuan, down 34.1% [6] - For the third quarter alone, revenue was 2.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 14.6%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 130 million yuan, an increase of 2.5% [6] - The company's gross margin for Q3 2024 was 38.3%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [6] Business Segments - The outlet and shopping center segments showed resilience, with revenues increasing by 4.4% and decreasing by only 1.6% respectively in the first three quarters [6] - The department store and specialty store segments faced significant pressure, with revenues declining by 15.5% and 5.0% respectively [6] - The duty-free segment's revenue growth of 68.6% highlights the company's strategic focus on this area [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a growth trajectory with projected revenues of 115.1 billion, 126.0 billion, and 132.5 billion yuan for 2024-2026, despite anticipated declines in 2024 [6] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 500 million, 730 million, and 830 million yuan, with growth rates of -29.7%, +47.1%, and +13.2% respectively [6]