广州酒家：月饼旺季平稳收官，持续开拓省外市场

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a steady conclusion to the mooncake peak season while continuing to expand into markets outside its home province [4] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.9% to 450 million yuan [2][6] - The company’s gross margin continued to decline, with a gross margin of 33.1% for the first three quarters, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 390 million yuan, down 5.4% year-on-year [2][6] - The company’s revenue from mooncake, frozen food, other products, and catering businesses for the first three quarters were 1.44 billion, 770 million, 730 million, and 1.09 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +0.2%, -1.8%, +13.9%, and +15.5% [6] Market Expansion - The company has successfully expanded its revenue from markets outside its home province, achieving a growth rate of 3.5%, which is higher than the growth rate of the domestic market [6] Cost Control - The company demonstrated good cost control capabilities, with selling expense ratio, management expense ratio, and R&D expense ratio for Q3 being 7.3%, 6.7%, and 1.2%, respectively, showing year-on-year decreases of 0.9 percentage points, 0.2 percentage points, and 0.4 percentage points [6] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 5.03 billion, 5.58 billion, and 6.21 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.6%, 11.0%, and 11.3% respectively [6][7] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is expected to be 520 million, 610 million, and 700 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -5.1%, 15.8%, and 15.1% respectively [6][7]