安井食品：竞争抢份额，盈利暂承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][6] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 110.77 billion yuan and a net profit of 10.47 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.84% in revenue but a decline of 6.65% in net profit. In Q3 2024, revenue was 35.33 billion yuan with a net profit of 2.44 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.63% in revenue but a significant decline of 36.76% in net profit. Despite the competitive pressure affecting profitability, the company managed to maintain revenue growth in the current demand environment [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 110.77 billion yuan and a net profit of 10.47 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year changes of +7.84% and -6.65%. In Q3 alone, revenue was 35.33 billion yuan and net profit was 2.44 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of +4.63% and -36.76% [6]. - The company's gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters were 22.64% and 9.59%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.58 percentage points and a decrease of 1.51 percentage points, respectively [6]. Revenue Breakdown - Key product revenues in Q3 included frozen prepared foods (17.92 billion yuan), frozen dishes (11.28 billion yuan), and frozen rice and noodle products (5.32 billion yuan), with year-on-year changes of -0.12%, +24.12%, and -9.49%, respectively [6]. - Revenue from key channels in Q3 included distribution (29.78 billion yuan), supermarkets (1.71 billion yuan), specialty stores (1.88 billion yuan), and new retail (1.37 billion yuan), with year-on-year changes of +3.23%, +15.07%, -12.41%, and +95.93%, respectively, with new retail growth primarily driven by increased sales through Hema [6]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 154.85 billion yuan, 170.15 billion yuan, and 185.48 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.25%, 9.88%, and 9.01%. Net profits are expected to be 14.79 billion yuan, 16.46 billion yuan, and 17.99 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 0.07%, 11.26%, and 9.34%, respectively [6][7].