千禾味业：战略调整，经营承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.288 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 352 million yuan, down 9.19% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 699 million yuan, a decrease of 12.63%, with a net profit of 101 million yuan, down 22.58% year-on-year. Both revenue and profit fell short of expectations [2][6] - The decline in revenue is attributed to base disturbances and proactive strategic adjustments, with a focus on stabilizing revenue and protecting profits. For Q3 2024, soy sauce revenue was 435 million yuan, down 13.82%, and vinegar revenue was 85 million yuan, down 15.67%. Revenue from distribution and direct sales models was 468 million yuan and 218 million yuan, down 17.32% and 0.43% respectively [6] - The company’s gross margin increased by 0.67 percentage points to 37.54% in Q3 2024, likely due to product upgrades and cost benefits. However, the overall net profit margin decreased by 1.85 percentage points to 14.45% [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 3.248 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.28%, and net profit of 518 million yuan, a decrease of 2.42%. EPS is projected at 0.50 yuan [7] - The company’s revenue for 2022, 2023, and projected for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 2.436 billion yuan, 3.207 billion yuan, 3.248 billion yuan, 3.573 billion yuan, and 3.932 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 26.55%, 31.62%, 1.28%, 10.01%, and 10.05% [7] Strategic Adjustments - The company is undergoing a strategic adjustment period, which is expected to lead to operational improvements. The revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 3.248 billion yuan, 3.573 billion yuan, and 3.932 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 518 million yuan, 610 million yuan, and 691 million yuan [6][7]