HPI(600011) 国信证券·2024-11-03 04:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huaneng International is "Outperform the Market" [6][13][16] Core Views - The report indicates that Huaneng International's revenue has been impacted by a decrease in electricity prices, leading to a year-on-year decline in operating income and net profit. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 184.395 billion yuan (-3.62%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.413 billion yuan (-17.12%) [1][7] - The report highlights a significant increase in profits from renewable energy sources, with wind and solar power segments showing substantial growth, while coal power profits have decreased [2][10] - The continuous growth in installed capacity for renewable energy is expected to drive future performance improvements for the company [3][11] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported: - Operating income: 184.395 billion yuan (-3.62%) - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 10.413 billion yuan (-17.12%) - Non-recurring net profit: 10.041 billion yuan (+6.87%) [1][7] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved: - Operating income: 65.590 billion yuan (+0.46%) - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 2.959 billion yuan (-52.69%) - Non-recurring net profit: 2.861 billion yuan (-25.18%) [1][7] - The average on-grid electricity price for the company's power plants in China was 496.27 yuan/MWh (-2.63%) for the first three quarters of 2024 [1][7] Segment Performance Summary - Profit contributions from various segments for the first three quarters of 2024: - Coal segment: 6.568 billion yuan (+91.16%) - Gas segment: 0.856 billion yuan (+21.91%) - Wind segment: 5.200 billion yuan (+10.87%) - Solar segment: 2.430 billion yuan (+33.21%) - Hydropower segment: 0.119 billion yuan (+277.81%) [2][8] - In Q3 2024, the profit contributions were: - Coal segment: 2.588 billion yuan (-8.97%) - Gas segment: 0.286 billion yuan (-18.52%) - Wind segment: 1.170 billion yuan (+75.68%) - Solar segment: 1.185 billion yuan (+44.16%) [2][8] Installed Capacity and Future Outlook - As of Q3 2024, the company added: - Wind capacity: 413,000 kW - Solar capacity: 1,763,400 kW - Total new capacity: 2,176,400 kW [3][11] - Cumulative installed capacity as of September 2024: - Total: 140,711,000 kW - Wind: 16,978,000 kW - Solar: 16,853,000 kW [3][11] Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The report maintains earnings forecasts for 2024-2026: - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 11.558 billion yuan (2024), 12.027 billion yuan (2025), 12.846 billion yuan (2026) - EPS: 0.74 yuan (2024), 0.77 yuan (2025), 0.82 yuan (2026) - Corresponding PE ratios: 11.2 (2024), 10.7 (2025), 10.0 (2026) [4][13] - The estimated reasonable market value for the company is between 123.1 billion yuan and 134.7 billion yuan, with a corresponding reasonable share price of 7.84 to 8.58 yuan, indicating an 8% to 18% premium over the current share price [4][13]