HPI(600011) 华源证券·2024-11-03 04:53Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was impacted by asset impairment and non-operating expenses, but its core business operations remained stable and slightly exceeded market expectations [3] - The company's coal power profit per kWh reached 3.1 cents in Q3, and its balance sheet continues to improve [4] - The company is a leader in both coal and green energy, and its performance serves as a barometer for the industry, benefiting from ongoing power system reforms [5] Financial Performance - In Q3, the company's total online electricity generation was 130.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.43%, with coal, gas, wind, and solar power generation at 107.7, 8.8, 8.0, and 5.7 billion kWh respectively [1] - The average on-grid electricity price for the first three quarters was 496.27 yuan/MWh, a year-on-year decrease of 2.63% [1] - The company's Q3 revenue was 65.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.46%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.959 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.69% [3] - The company's total installed capacity reached 140.71 GW by the end of September 2024, with coal, gas, wind, and solar power accounting for 93.14, 13.29, 16.93, and 16.85 GW respectively [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 11.0, 12.6, and 13.7 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 30%, 15%, and 8% respectively [6] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 14, 11, and 10 times for 2024-2026 [6] - The dividend yield is expected to be 3.7% for 2024, based on a 50% payout ratio of net profit attributable to shareholders (excluding perpetual bond interest) [6] Industry and Strategy - The company aims to achieve a 45% clean energy installed capacity ratio by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, requiring over 20 GW of new energy capacity to be added by 2025 [5] - The company plans to invest in 2*1,000 MW coal power units in Yunnan, holding a 51% stake, indicating potential growth in coal power profitability [4] - The company's green energy business faces profit pressure due to marketization and curtailment issues, but it is expected to benefit from environmental value enhancement [5]