宏华数科：产业趋势不改，业绩维持较高增速

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.26 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.4%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 310 million yuan, up 29.5% year-on-year [1] - The revenue for the third quarter alone was 450 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 39.1%, with a net profit of 110 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 19.9% year-on-year [1] - The overall profit level remains high despite a slight decline in gross margin due to changes in revenue structure and increased costs from stock incentive plans and exchange rate fluctuations [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The comprehensive gross margin for the first three quarters was 46.5%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to an increase in equipment revenue proportion and a decrease in ink gross margin due to price cuts at the beginning of the year [2] - The net profit margin for the first three quarters was 25.4%, down 3.0 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by stock incentive costs and exchange rate fluctuations [2] - The company’s expense ratio for the first three quarters was 17.5%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to rising financial costs from exchange rate fluctuations [2] Business Strategy - The company is expanding its product offerings beyond textile digital printing equipment to include applications in book printing, building materials, and corrugated paper printing, generating 60 million yuan in revenue from these new products in 2023 [3] - The company’s IPO fundraising project for an annual production capacity of 2,000 sets of printing equipment and consumables has commenced, enhancing capacity and quality [3] - The company expects to achieve a production capacity of 3,520 sets of printing equipment and a 47,000-ton ink base by 2025, with a smooth ramp-up in production expected to sustain high growth in performance [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestion - The company’s net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 440 million yuan, 560 million yuan, and 670 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, corresponding to EPS of 2.42 yuan, 3.10 yuan, and 3.72 yuan [3] - The forecast indicates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.1% for net profit over the next three years, supporting the "Buy" rating [3]