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有色及贵金属周报:宏观重磅陆续来临,金属波动或加剧
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-11-03 05:23

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The upcoming U.S. elections and the Federal Reserve's November meeting are expected to increase metal price volatility, with both precious and industrial metals facing adjustment pressures due to economic conditions [2][3] - Domestic policy effects are beginning to show, and the macroeconomic outlook is improving, suggesting that industrial metal varieties may perform well despite seasonal slowdowns, supported by supply constraints from environmental regulations [3] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The week of November 5 sees heightened volatility in metal prices due to the U.S. elections and the Federal Reserve's meeting, with precious metals facing adjustment pressures regardless of whether the U.S. economy experiences a soft or hard landing [6] - China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, indicating a recovery, and upcoming policy meetings may catalyze further positive developments [3][6] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 2.18%, outperforming major indices [12] - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and others benefiting from the sector's dynamics [3][9] 3. Metal Prices and Inventory - Industrial metals showed mixed price movements, with copper at $9,570.5 per ton (down 0.33%) and aluminum at $2,600 per ton (down 2.89%) [15][18] - Gold prices were reported at 629.72 CNY per gram (up 0.96%), while silver prices fell to 7,964 CNY per kilogram (down 2.41%) [18][19] 4. Macro Data Tracking - The report highlights that the U.S. economy's employment data and inflation indicators will significantly influence market expectations and metal prices [24][27] - China's PMI for October was reported at 50.1%, reflecting a stable economic recovery [24]