欧科亿：2024年三季报点评：收入端稳健增长，产能利用率不足影响净利润

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 24.40 CNY over the next six months [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 895 million CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting an 11.22% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 90 million CNY, down 43.70% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 316 million CNY, which is a 16.08% increase year-on-year, but the net profit decreased by 41.85% year-on-year to 30 million CNY [1][2]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to insufficient capacity utilization and increased fixed costs due to lower demand in the CNC tool sector [2]. Revenue and Profitability - The company’s comprehensive gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 25.83%, down 6.71 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 10.00%, down 9.83 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 25.26%, a decrease of 7.07 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 9.31%, down 9.50 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Expense Ratios - The company’s expense ratio slightly increased in Q3 2024, with a total expense ratio of 13.83%, up 2.63 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The breakdown includes a sales expense ratio of 3.24%, a management expense ratio of 3.76%, a research expense ratio of 5.34%, and a financial expense ratio of 1.49% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 130 million CNY, 190 million CNY, and 250 million CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 15% over the next three years [3][8]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the CNC tool sector, with a valuation of 20 times earnings for 2025, supporting the target price of 24.40 CNY [3][8]. Business Segments - The CNC tool segment is projected to see revenue growth rates of 12%, 16%, and 24% from 2024 to 2026, while the hard alloy products segment is expected to grow at rates of 21%, 16%, and 14% over the same period [6][8]. - The gross margin for CNC tools is anticipated to stabilize after 2024, while the hard alloy products are expected to see a gradual increase in gross margin [6].