中远海能：Q3业绩同比下滑，基本面仍支撑景气度

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 17.14 billion RMB for Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.68%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.42 billion RMB, a decrease of 8.05% [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.49 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.8%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.81 billion RMB, down 10.9% year-on-year [2]. - The decline in gross profit from foreign trade oil transportation was offset by growth in domestic trade and LNG profits [2]. - The supply-demand fundamentals in the oil transportation industry are expected to remain healthy, supporting the industry's outlook [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company’s tanker capacity input was 5.9 billion ton-days, an increase of 7.8% year-on-year, while the transportation volume (excluding time charter) was 12.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year [2]. - The average daily earnings for VLCC TD3C route (Middle East to China) were approximately 36,846 USD/day, up 4.2% year-on-year, and for LR2 TC1 route (Middle East to Japan) were approximately 47,115 USD/day, up 44.9% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit from the tanker segment was 4.28 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 7%, with foreign trade oil transportation contributing 3.15 billion RMB (down 9.8%) and domestic oil transportation contributing 1.13 billion RMB (up 1.5%) [2]. Financial Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 23.98%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the addition of new VLCC capacity and rising charter rates [2]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 14.7%, down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 4.4 billion RMB, 6.67 billion RMB, and 7.61 billion RMB, respectively [3]. Market Outlook - According to Clarkson's forecast, the demand for crude oil ton-miles is expected to grow by 2.8% year-on-year in 2024, and the demand for refined oil ton-miles is expected to grow by 7.9% year-on-year [2]. - The supply growth rate for crude oil tankers is projected at 0.3% in 2024, with a continued low growth trend for VLCC capacity [2].